------------------
for beginner to start
1) afraid to trade corey premium lessons $10 each and master those concepts
2) have esignal basic $25/month and setup in 'Replay' mode and do PRACTICE, PRACTICE .. ( have multiple windows for CSCO and SP500 et..) , use above learned 'momemtum' divergence etc.. and apply . see my post 'Practice , Practice of what Mr. K told'
3) master Candle sticks and do Practice with esignal 'replay'
4) asr: one has to practice these with intrdday data with esignal 'Replay' mode ( i think they provide 3 to 4 months intra day data for $29 )
- good thing they have build-in replay mode , you set delay and barlength( 5 min or 10 min et..) so you just sit and do paper trade .
-----------
4 signal sets for commodities
-------------------------------
signal set 1: VP signals for all commodities grains, metals, energy
signal set 2: Bigalow commodity signals ( premium subscription) based on candle stick patterns
signal set 3: MRCI moore seasonals ( enter MRCI data into csv files and load into charts , you do not need complex program just make CSV file with OpenOffice CALC and edit as required )
signal set 4: use hightowerreport newletter daily commentary to log in csv file for commodities ..
-----------
- with MRCI back issues ( 5 yeras ) have them as html files and use PHP to extract data into CSV files and display
- PLOT an indicator from this MRCI historic values
- also go back in time and PRactice on esignal REPLAY with 'MRCI' displayed as values for OIL, SP500 , EURO etc..
----------------
Steve Bigalow Nice Video on Commodities trading signals
( see sample report below on the video he gives most profitable trades based on candle stick patterns)
Open Positions Follow-up
Sneak Peek at Pick of the Day
----
Afraid to trade PRemium news letter:
asr: bottom line, his anlysis is good for intraday trader b) probably we can use these 3/10 oscillator , TICK divergence, Bredth etc.. to practice 'on esignal' 'Replay' mode to see how it works what you learned , how well you can 'predict it' in real-time the 'next move of the market' with Replay mode.
Corey Premium news letter is 'analysis of the day in the context of intra-day' to reivew in the evening , it is not real time based. He analyse day at the end of the day.
The principle is that “The more times you see these trades and structures develop in the calm of your evening analysis, the better you’ll be in real-time to Recognize These Opportunities and Put the Trades on and manage risk accordingly in the heat of battle”
More importantly, I highlight the “Ideal Trades” or highest probability, lowest risk trade set-ups for near-perfect examples of how to develop your understanding and trading skills through seeing repeated, specific examples such as flags, breakout moves, TICK and Momentum Divergences, Fibonacci retracements, Candle Patterns, Elliott Wave overlay trades, “Three Push” Patterns, and many more.
see sample reports at the bottom
-------------
worldcupadvisor - Traders Profiles:
https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/AdvisorProfile/Default.aspx
asr: having Stephan BIgalow as first guy, this site showed this has quaility , same as #5 Hayes must be some credible
Michael Hayes
Trading systems CTGFUTURES
http://ctgfutures.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=100&Itemid=155
asr: 1/ we need to use this 5 day trail system to capture BUY/sell indicator data in .csv files with TS (need to ask a guy who has TS )
2/ interesting this $800 system, using 2 time frames ..
Swing Trade
At CTG we use 20 minute charts configured with our proprietary CTG Bar Trend Paint Bars and a 200 Exponential Moving Average to identify turns.
CTG SWING TRADING LESSON -
CLASSIC SWING TRADE
asr: intersting to note 20 min charts for Swing Trades with FUtures
-------
1. bespoken
- have access to hisotric 2 year old all archives ( can check how their earnings gap up/down analysis worked )
- has historic earning dates how the gapup/gap down behaved ( amazon recent good traded wokred)
- gives lots of econmic indicators and how they behaved in the past
1.2 Maui trader: bigwave trading
- seems good to learn how to best use Telecharts
- Mr. K has read list blog so must have some value
2/ Stock Bandit ( in Mr. K list of news-letters)
- it has daily commentary on tech cahrt
- it gives 17 trades in 3 months so 5 trades a month that is 1 trade a week on avg. ( author says he gives only quality not 'many trades' that may be reason why Mr. K had in his list )
SAMPLE NEWSLETTER
see profit factor: 5.2/1.8 => 3 ( in best july-sept 2009 , otherwise it may be 2 ) . Our VP might have better PF like > 3
2. MarketTells ( K list)
What to Make of Friday’s Spike in Volume
11/17/09 comment on Market
More Evidence of an Unusually Strong Trend -- this prediction of strong market DID NOT work, market tanked after SEP 22
2.2 stockbee
- shows good trading gains posted on web site ( need to find historic )
Market Monior
4. tradingpoints
- showing S1/R1 and pivots for Weekly and daily
5. http://www.chartswingtrader.com/search/label/Charts
- he is follower of stockbee and has can learn some charts usage ( telecharts) for $3
- in Mr. K read list
6.
http://www.highchartpatterns.com/bestofblog.htm -- this link came from stockbee site
7. Alphatrends.net
- on chart.ly he is 2 nd popular poster
http://www.alphatrends.net/frequently-asked-questions/
http://www.alphatrends.net/2008/07/chase-the-gap-or-wait-for-vwap/
VWAP reference
-----
Candle Stick courses ( for non-technical , not so savvy users these videos help)
http://www.candlestickforum.com/store/products.asp?Category_ID=24
----
StockBee -- additional
3 concepts: Earnings, Momentum, Neglet
user comments on three concepts above ( at bottom of url page)
Actually, momentum IS technical analysis, because technical analysis is the study of price, volume, and sentiment. 2/3 of your methodology is technical analysis.
The difference, Pradeep, is not that you "don't use technical analysis" - you DO - it's just that you use technical analysis in a quantitative and scientific manner, which is what's lacking in most practicioners of technical analysis.
skytrader said...
Pradeep
Some interesting observations on the the incredible power of momentum stocks. Eddy Elfenbein comments
I was completely stunned by the incredible outperformance of stocks with high momentum, meaning stocks that are surging have a tendency to keep on surging. I was aware of some of the academic literature on this subject, but I have to confess that I was completely dumbfounded by the results.
The Incredible Power of Momentum Stocks
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2007/12/the_incredible.html
Dec 20, 2007 8:31:00 PM
Pradeep Bonde said...
I figured that out 7 years ago. Anyone who ventures beyond technical analysis will find this out immediately. The first challenge to efficient market hypothesis was PEADS and momentum anomaly.
------
http://ripetrade.blogspot.com/ -- mentioned on Mr. K blog read list
http://ripetrade.blogspot.com/2009/04/q1-systems-review.html
-----------------
If you wanted to learn Chart pattern reading this is the best
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/01/making-most-of-traderfeed-resources.html
http://education.afraidtotrade.com/ -- good short lessons on each topic when you click
Price Consolidation after a long Downtrend with Increasing Volume is Bullish
This scenario represents accumulation, in that funds are meeting any selling pressure buy accumulating all available shares, and thus “they know something the mass public doesn’t” or otherwise will catch onto later which could lead to the birth of a new trend.
4. Price Consolidation after a long Uptrend with Increasing Volume is Bearish
For the opposite reason, after a long rise in price, if price consolidates for a long period of time, yet volume increases, this means that funds are distributing their shares to the numerous buyers who can’t push prices higher, and when the buying pressure eases off, the price would be more likely to fall (or start a new downtrend) than continue rising.
--
Trader Mike bio
http://tradermike.net/2003/05/breaking_it_down/
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
OPEC increased ouput in SEPTEMBER of 80,000 bbl
Yet on the bearish side Bloomberg News is reporting that the, “Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised crude-oil production last month to the highest level in 10 months as members took advantage of higher prices." A Bloomberg News survey showed output averaged 28.76 million barrels a day in October, up 80,000 barrels from September, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.
The entire gain came from the 11 OPEC members with quotas, all except Iraq. The 11 countries pumped 26.31 million barrels a day, 1.465 million barrels above their target. Iraqi output was unchanged. OPEC cut output quotas by 4.2 million barrels to 24.845 million barrels a day last year as fuel demand tumbled during the worst recession since the 1930s. The group, which left the targets unchanged at a Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna, is set to meet again on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola.
The entire gain came from the 11 OPEC members with quotas, all except Iraq. The 11 countries pumped 26.31 million barrels a day, 1.465 million barrels above their target. Iraqi output was unchanged. OPEC cut output quotas by 4.2 million barrels to 24.845 million barrels a day last year as fuel demand tumbled during the worst recession since the 1930s. The group, which left the targets unchanged at a Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna, is set to meet again on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Volume by price VBP
I've written an indicator that displays volume per price tick in a variety of modes.
Thanks to NT support for answering my initial questions to get me started.
Indicator download found here:
http://www.ninjatrader-support2.com/...php?linkid=214
http://www.ninjatrader-support2.com/vb/local_links.php - Image here
Volume by Price - stock charts has this built in
Gauging Support And Resistance With Price By Volume by Justin Kuepper,
Thanks to NT support for answering my initial questions to get me started.
Indicator download found here:
http://www.ninjatrader-support2.com/...php?linkid=214
http://www.ninjatrader-support2.com/vb/local_links.php - Image here
Volume by Price - stock charts has this built in
Gauging Support And Resistance With Price By Volume by Justin Kuepper,
Trade setups - 2
7 Ways to Improve Your Existing Trading Strategy - K. Ref
So what’s your next step? Research a completely new trading strategy, right? Not yet, I say. If you are already trading a profitable strategy, many times there are ways to improve, adapt, or add on to it to make more profits – sometimes a lot more. So before investing a lot of time in developing a completely new strategy which can be a long and arduous process, first look at the strategy you already trade.
This has a couple of obvious advantages – you’re already intimately familiar with how your system works and you already have a mountain of real, live trading data to test with which is always more valuable than pure backtesting with is 100% theoretical.
Here are some ways to look at your existing system to try to improve it:
Use a Profit Target – Look for ways to add a target order or modify an existing one. Targets are great for a lot of strategies because they lock in profit and they free up capital sooner.
Adjust Your Stops – Most traders use stops that are too tight. Look at your existing strategy and see if you can make more money by using a larger or smaller stop distance.
Find More Opportunities – If you’ve already got a profitable strategy, it often pays to relax your filter rules to generate more entry signals. Even if you end up with a strategy that is slightly less profitable per trade, the increased opportunities could be well worth it.
Look For Fewer, More Profitable Opportunities – This is the opposite of the previous item. It might make sense to trade fewer but more profitable opportunities by tightening your entry criteria a bit. Often times you’ll find that you can make the same amount of money with fewer trades (and therefore less risk). This can free up valuable buying power to allocate to other strategies.
Automate your Strategy or Part of It – How are you spending your time when you trade your strategy? Are there aspects of that routine that could be streamlined or eliminated? Perhaps the strategy could be completely automated. Maybe the strategy can be modified slightly to be automated.
Look For Cheaper Commissions – If you’re trading big enough, this could save thousands of dollars a month. Changing brokers can be a pain, so make sure the pay off is going to be worth it before going through the hassle of moving money, learning a new platform, etc.
Backtest Losing Trades in the Opposite Direction – Let’s say you’re trading a long strategy and 40% of those trades end up stopping out. What would happen if you took those trades that stopped out and traded them short? Think about it – the trades that stop out have invalidated your long “thesis” with your original strategy. Maybe there’s an edge on the short side with those trades.
----
asr: it seems this TRIX works on short time frames 3-min , 5-min charts
TRIX Reversal trading system
-- see detailed pages with charts on this trade follow 1-8 on this web link
* Description : The TRIX (T) is a comparison of the current and previous triple smoothed exponential moving averages.
* Calculation :
EMA1 = EMA1n-1 + ((2 / (n + 1)) * (Pn - EMA1n-1))
EMA2 = EMA2n-1 + ((2 / (n + 1)) * (EMA1n - EMA2n-1))
EMA3 = EMA3n-1 + ((2 / (n + 1)) * (EMA2n - EMA3n-1))
T = (EMA3n - EMA3n-1 ) / EMA3n-1
Trading Use
The TRIX is usually used as an oscillator, with long and short entries signaled by the TRIX crossing its zero line. It can also be used as a divergence indicator, with long entries signaled by bullish divergence, and short entries signaled by bearish divergence.
---
What Is TRIX?
The triple exponential average (TRIX) indicator is an oscillator used to identify oversold and overbought markets, and it can also be used as a momentum indicator. Like many oscillators, TRIX oscillates around a zero line.
- If we look closely at some of the other momentum indicators like a stochastics or a price ROC, we would find a similar pattern.
----------
Excellent Example of Intraday Reversal Preceded by Divergences
This morning’s action gave a great example of the “Divergence” lessons, in that dual TICK and Momentum divergences can forecast intraday price reversals of either short or intermediate term degree. Let’s take a look.
Two Quick Intraday Fibonacci Retracement Examples
Today’s intraday price action gave me a chance to show you two specific Fibonacci Retracement grid examples of how to use the “Fibonacci Retracement” tool to find potential trade entries or reversals in price. Let’s take a look at them and learn how to use this tool.
---------
Much to learn from these charts
http://www.chartswingtrader.com/search/label/Charts
-- see 4 charts showing 9/20/50 ribbon same direction ..
------
Determining market trend:
asr: seems we need to subscribe to this guy blog stockbee as he is more vocal (talking ) about market trends.
- Subscriptin: this $150/year should be tried given he has setup and 'market monitor' for daily commentary. see below as shown on this page.
He shows montly retruns of 20% atleaet in 7,8 months of 2009 see table . He has trade alerts that may be value of $150 , endorsed by swingtrader ..
- May be Mr. K may be using this blog it privately ...
How to determine market direction using market breadth
Market Monitor the market direction indicating system based on market breadth. Everyday a detailed analysis of market action and direction is done using 13 market breadth based parameters. Based on it a probability of market direction is determined. There is a extensive discussion about market breadth and how to use it to determine market directio
http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/06/how-to-find-shorts.html
#2 - Stockbee Market Monitor
Another great resource useful for market direction is from the blog of Pradeep Bonde, Stockbee. I found this blog a year or so ago and it is a tremendous resource for traders. Using Telechart, he has developed a series of scans that keeps track of four or five ratios that help traders determine the underlying trend and anticipate near-term moves. Out of respect to him, I will not comment much more on these scans, but I encourage you to check out his website and learn for yourself. He also offers a subscription site for traders interested in learning more strategies including his Market Monitor. I keep track of theses ratios through Telechart on a daily basis and make many decisions based on the numbers I get. One gives a broad, overall indicator of the market, while others give shorter-term signals when the market is extended and due to pullback, or when the market has possibly put in a short-term bottom.
asr: so you can save data in telecharts and track it over period ..
---
Stock Scans for LONG BUY stocks
http://www.chartswingtrader.com/2008/04/how-to-find-stocks-using-telechart.html
I have matching watchlist for short candidates if the market conditions are weak, a watchlist for the general indexes and some Telechart indicators I use, and an IBD Stocks watchlist that contains the IBD 100 and Top 200 Composite stocks from the past week.
My first scan is the most basic - it is called Price/Volume and is looking for stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages that are up for the day on volume that is at least 50% higher than the normal average daily volume. The basic PCF for this scan is as follows:
(C > C1) AND (C > AVGC50) AND (AVGC50 > AVGC200) AND (V > 1.5 * AVGV50) AND (AVGV50 >= 200) AND (C > 4)
I put this PCF in an easy scan and scan all stocks in the system. There is a minimum price and minimum volume component already in this scan. This scan typically presents 20-60 stocks per day in good market conditions, and I can often find stocks forming possible bases using this scan that I then put in my Long Watchlist. I believe I got this scan from the Mauitrader blog of Joshua Hayes.
My second scan is simply a breakout scan that screens for stocks up 4% or more on higher volume. This scan comes from Pradeep Bonde from Stockbee and is part of his Market Monitor. The PCF is as follows:
( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1
I also put this in an easy scan and scan for all stocks. There is also a price/volume minimum in this scan. I sometimes find different stocks in this scan than the price/volume scan above due to the requirements for increases in volume. The reason this scan works well is that it helps show which stocks are moving higher in a powerful fashion and prevents me from missing one of those stocks on their journey higher.
My final scan is one I developed based on the Balance of Power indicator (BOP) I like to use when viewing charts in Telechart. I call it Max BOP, and it basically looks for stocks that above its 50 day moving average and has BOP levels of at least 70. This scan will show me which stocks have the most accumulation in their charts, and although often I see the same stocks in all of these scans, this helps point me to the ones with the most momentum behind them. The main PCF is below:
BOP1 >= 70 AND (C > AVGC50) AND (C > 4)
I put that PCF in an easy scan and then scan all stocks and put a volume requirement in with the easy scan. I will get a lot of charts in this scan and I manually scan them to see if there are any attractive candidates I missed on the first two scans.
------
Updated Short Scan for Telechart
I have been tinkering with my main short scan in Telechart for the past day or so and the charts that I am getting from this updated scan are closer to what I am looking for in a short, so for those interested, here is the updated Easy Scan with PCF's:
PCF #1 - Down 15% in last 25-30 Days, but up at least 5% in last 5-7 days.
100 * ((C + .01) - (MAXC7 + .01)) / (MAXC7 + .01) <= ( 5) AND 100 * ((C + .01) - (MAXC30 + .01)) / (MAXC30 + .01) <= ( - 15)
I have tinkered with the number of days from 25 to 30 and also 5 to 7 and this seems to work well, although you can try to change them for your own preferences.
PCF #2 - Short Scan - Within 5% of 50 day moving average.
C >= (AVGC50 * .95) AND C < (AVGC50 * 1.05)
PCF #3 - Volume Decreasing on Rally
AVGV7 < AVGV
------
How I find Shorts
I also created an Easyscan in Telechart that helps identify stocks that have rallied up close to their 50 day MA. This scan is by no means perfect and I continue to tinker with it, but each day it gives me another 30 or 40 candidates to look through each day to check as possibilities. I created a PCF and called it short scan. The scan is as follows:
C >= (AVGC50 * .95) AND C < (AVGC50 * 1.05)
This gives me stocks that are within 5% of their 50 day moving average. From there I add that condition to an easy scan and also include the following conditions;
Watchlist: All Stocks
Price Growth Rate, 1 Year: Rank 55 to 99
Price Percentage Change 26 Week: Rank 6 to 62
Volume 1-Day: Rank 51 to 99
Price Per Share: Rank 16 to 99
Price Percentage Change 5-Day: 75 to 99
asr: wow with Telecharts you can do this Ranking, I do not think you can do ranking with TradeStation.
What this scan basically gives me is stocks that are up or flat on the year, have gone down at least five percent over the last 26 weeks, and whose price has not gone down the past five days or has rallied, as well as being within 5% of their 50 day moving average. This scan gave me BID as a possibility last week, and COH as a possibility a few weeks ago.
Unfortunately, I did not take either because I was too busy trying to be a hero shorting solar stocks. I didn't lose more than a few percentage points on each short, so it was not a big deal, but it does bring me to my final point - only short weak stocks. I debated between taking BID and TSL last week and went with TSL. I was stopped out that day. So I still need to work on my discipline with shorting. Short weak stocks. Short weak stocks. Short weak stocks. I can't say that enough, and maybe I am saying it so many times to get it in my head too.
asr: main points in these 3 charts
1) Money stream did not move up even though stock price moved that is bearish sign
2) decreased volume trend
3) see with Telecharts you can have colors for 9/20/50 moving avg. crosses good visual indicator .
-----------
How to trade earnings
Double Trouble is a very simple relative strength system. One of the unique things in it is that it uses absolute strength instead of relative strength. Stocks has to double before being considered for a trade. In relative strength, one just ranks stocks by annual rate of return and takes the top 10% or so.
However many of you have trouble finding a software to do the exact calculations for Double Trouble. The other problem you face with Double Trouble is many possible opportunities on day to day basis. To overcome such problem here is a modified Double Trouble method. I can not think of a new name for it currently, but at some stage will rename it.
This is extremely Telechart friendly version.
1. Calculate relative rank using : ((C - AVGC135 ) / AVGC135)
2. Take the top 2% stocks ranked by the above scan.
3. Run a combined month weakness plus breakout scan on the top 2% stock. :(100 * (C1 - C22) / C22) < 10 AND ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1
4. You will get 0 to 5 candidates on daily basis. If you want even lesser number of candidates take 1% only in step 2. In that case you will get 0 to 3 candidates on daily basis in most circumstances.
5. Initial stop at 3 days low. Trail after 20% profit with 10% stop.
6. Risk 1% of equity.
Do your own testing before trading. You will not miss out on major profitable rally. Enjoy your profit.
-------
Some Review on trades and psychology , real good one from March 2009
asr: I should have read and interacted with these kind of guys in March/April 2009 so that I should have seens S&P treend and OIL up trend.
-- see nice 4 crisp charts, I would have kept for OIL 5 min, 15 min, 60 min, daily OIL chart side by side all in one screen
----
So what’s your next step? Research a completely new trading strategy, right? Not yet, I say. If you are already trading a profitable strategy, many times there are ways to improve, adapt, or add on to it to make more profits – sometimes a lot more. So before investing a lot of time in developing a completely new strategy which can be a long and arduous process, first look at the strategy you already trade.
This has a couple of obvious advantages – you’re already intimately familiar with how your system works and you already have a mountain of real, live trading data to test with which is always more valuable than pure backtesting with is 100% theoretical.
Here are some ways to look at your existing system to try to improve it:
Use a Profit Target – Look for ways to add a target order or modify an existing one. Targets are great for a lot of strategies because they lock in profit and they free up capital sooner.
Adjust Your Stops – Most traders use stops that are too tight. Look at your existing strategy and see if you can make more money by using a larger or smaller stop distance.
Find More Opportunities – If you’ve already got a profitable strategy, it often pays to relax your filter rules to generate more entry signals. Even if you end up with a strategy that is slightly less profitable per trade, the increased opportunities could be well worth it.
Look For Fewer, More Profitable Opportunities – This is the opposite of the previous item. It might make sense to trade fewer but more profitable opportunities by tightening your entry criteria a bit. Often times you’ll find that you can make the same amount of money with fewer trades (and therefore less risk). This can free up valuable buying power to allocate to other strategies.
Automate your Strategy or Part of It – How are you spending your time when you trade your strategy? Are there aspects of that routine that could be streamlined or eliminated? Perhaps the strategy could be completely automated. Maybe the strategy can be modified slightly to be automated.
Look For Cheaper Commissions – If you’re trading big enough, this could save thousands of dollars a month. Changing brokers can be a pain, so make sure the pay off is going to be worth it before going through the hassle of moving money, learning a new platform, etc.
Backtest Losing Trades in the Opposite Direction – Let’s say you’re trading a long strategy and 40% of those trades end up stopping out. What would happen if you took those trades that stopped out and traded them short? Think about it – the trades that stop out have invalidated your long “thesis” with your original strategy. Maybe there’s an edge on the short side with those trades.
----
asr: it seems this TRIX works on short time frames 3-min , 5-min charts
TRIX Reversal trading system
-- see detailed pages with charts on this trade follow 1-8 on this web link
* Description : The TRIX (T) is a comparison of the current and previous triple smoothed exponential moving averages.
* Calculation :
EMA1 = EMA1n-1 + ((2 / (n + 1)) * (Pn - EMA1n-1))
EMA2 = EMA2n-1 + ((2 / (n + 1)) * (EMA1n - EMA2n-1))
EMA3 = EMA3n-1 + ((2 / (n + 1)) * (EMA2n - EMA3n-1))
T = (EMA3n - EMA3n-1 ) / EMA3n-1
Trading Use
The TRIX is usually used as an oscillator, with long and short entries signaled by the TRIX crossing its zero line. It can also be used as a divergence indicator, with long entries signaled by bullish divergence, and short entries signaled by bearish divergence.
---
What Is TRIX?
The triple exponential average (TRIX) indicator is an oscillator used to identify oversold and overbought markets, and it can also be used as a momentum indicator. Like many oscillators, TRIX oscillates around a zero line.
- If we look closely at some of the other momentum indicators like a stochastics or a price ROC, we would find a similar pattern.
----------
Excellent Example of Intraday Reversal Preceded by Divergences
This morning’s action gave a great example of the “Divergence” lessons, in that dual TICK and Momentum divergences can forecast intraday price reversals of either short or intermediate term degree. Let’s take a look.
Two Quick Intraday Fibonacci Retracement Examples
Today’s intraday price action gave me a chance to show you two specific Fibonacci Retracement grid examples of how to use the “Fibonacci Retracement” tool to find potential trade entries or reversals in price. Let’s take a look at them and learn how to use this tool.
---------
Much to learn from these charts
http://www.chartswingtrader.com/search/label/Charts
-- see 4 charts showing 9/20/50 ribbon same direction ..
------
Determining market trend:
asr: seems we need to subscribe to this guy blog stockbee as he is more vocal (talking ) about market trends.
- Subscriptin: this $150/year should be tried given he has setup and 'market monitor' for daily commentary. see below as shown on this page.
He shows montly retruns of 20% atleaet in 7,8 months of 2009 see table . He has trade alerts that may be value of $150 , endorsed by swingtrader ..
- May be Mr. K may be using this blog it privately ...
How to determine market direction using market breadth
Market Monitor the market direction indicating system based on market breadth. Everyday a detailed analysis of market action and direction is done using 13 market breadth based parameters. Based on it a probability of market direction is determined. There is a extensive discussion about market breadth and how to use it to determine market directio
http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/06/how-to-find-shorts.html
#2 - Stockbee Market Monitor
Another great resource useful for market direction is from the blog of Pradeep Bonde, Stockbee. I found this blog a year or so ago and it is a tremendous resource for traders. Using Telechart, he has developed a series of scans that keeps track of four or five ratios that help traders determine the underlying trend and anticipate near-term moves. Out of respect to him, I will not comment much more on these scans, but I encourage you to check out his website and learn for yourself. He also offers a subscription site for traders interested in learning more strategies including his Market Monitor. I keep track of theses ratios through Telechart on a daily basis and make many decisions based on the numbers I get. One gives a broad, overall indicator of the market, while others give shorter-term signals when the market is extended and due to pullback, or when the market has possibly put in a short-term bottom.
asr: so you can save data in telecharts and track it over period ..
---
Stock Scans for LONG BUY stocks
http://www.chartswingtrader.com/2008/04/how-to-find-stocks-using-telechart.html
I have matching watchlist for short candidates if the market conditions are weak, a watchlist for the general indexes and some Telechart indicators I use, and an IBD Stocks watchlist that contains the IBD 100 and Top 200 Composite stocks from the past week.
My first scan is the most basic - it is called Price/Volume and is looking for stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages that are up for the day on volume that is at least 50% higher than the normal average daily volume. The basic PCF for this scan is as follows:
(C > C1) AND (C > AVGC50) AND (AVGC50 > AVGC200) AND (V > 1.5 * AVGV50) AND (AVGV50 >= 200) AND (C > 4)
I put this PCF in an easy scan and scan all stocks in the system. There is a minimum price and minimum volume component already in this scan. This scan typically presents 20-60 stocks per day in good market conditions, and I can often find stocks forming possible bases using this scan that I then put in my Long Watchlist. I believe I got this scan from the Mauitrader blog of Joshua Hayes.
My second scan is simply a breakout scan that screens for stocks up 4% or more on higher volume. This scan comes from Pradeep Bonde from Stockbee and is part of his Market Monitor. The PCF is as follows:
( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1
I also put this in an easy scan and scan for all stocks. There is also a price/volume minimum in this scan. I sometimes find different stocks in this scan than the price/volume scan above due to the requirements for increases in volume. The reason this scan works well is that it helps show which stocks are moving higher in a powerful fashion and prevents me from missing one of those stocks on their journey higher.
My final scan is one I developed based on the Balance of Power indicator (BOP) I like to use when viewing charts in Telechart. I call it Max BOP, and it basically looks for stocks that above its 50 day moving average and has BOP levels of at least 70. This scan will show me which stocks have the most accumulation in their charts, and although often I see the same stocks in all of these scans, this helps point me to the ones with the most momentum behind them. The main PCF is below:
BOP1 >= 70 AND (C > AVGC50) AND (C > 4)
I put that PCF in an easy scan and then scan all stocks and put a volume requirement in with the easy scan. I will get a lot of charts in this scan and I manually scan them to see if there are any attractive candidates I missed on the first two scans.
------
Updated Short Scan for Telechart
I have been tinkering with my main short scan in Telechart for the past day or so and the charts that I am getting from this updated scan are closer to what I am looking for in a short, so for those interested, here is the updated Easy Scan with PCF's:
PCF #1 - Down 15% in last 25-30 Days, but up at least 5% in last 5-7 days.
100 * ((C + .01) - (MAXC7 + .01)) / (MAXC7 + .01) <= ( 5) AND 100 * ((C + .01) - (MAXC30 + .01)) / (MAXC30 + .01) <= ( - 15)
I have tinkered with the number of days from 25 to 30 and also 5 to 7 and this seems to work well, although you can try to change them for your own preferences.
PCF #2 - Short Scan - Within 5% of 50 day moving average.
C >= (AVGC50 * .95) AND C < (AVGC50 * 1.05)
PCF #3 - Volume Decreasing on Rally
AVGV7 < AVGV
------
How I find Shorts
I also created an Easyscan in Telechart that helps identify stocks that have rallied up close to their 50 day MA. This scan is by no means perfect and I continue to tinker with it, but each day it gives me another 30 or 40 candidates to look through each day to check as possibilities. I created a PCF and called it short scan. The scan is as follows:
C >= (AVGC50 * .95) AND C < (AVGC50 * 1.05)
This gives me stocks that are within 5% of their 50 day moving average. From there I add that condition to an easy scan and also include the following conditions;
Watchlist: All Stocks
Price Growth Rate, 1 Year: Rank 55 to 99
Price Percentage Change 26 Week: Rank 6 to 62
Volume 1-Day: Rank 51 to 99
Price Per Share: Rank 16 to 99
Price Percentage Change 5-Day: 75 to 99
asr: wow with Telecharts you can do this Ranking, I do not think you can do ranking with TradeStation.
What this scan basically gives me is stocks that are up or flat on the year, have gone down at least five percent over the last 26 weeks, and whose price has not gone down the past five days or has rallied, as well as being within 5% of their 50 day moving average. This scan gave me BID as a possibility last week, and COH as a possibility a few weeks ago.
Unfortunately, I did not take either because I was too busy trying to be a hero shorting solar stocks. I didn't lose more than a few percentage points on each short, so it was not a big deal, but it does bring me to my final point - only short weak stocks. I debated between taking BID and TSL last week and went with TSL. I was stopped out that day. So I still need to work on my discipline with shorting. Short weak stocks. Short weak stocks. Short weak stocks. I can't say that enough, and maybe I am saying it so many times to get it in my head too.
asr: main points in these 3 charts
1) Money stream did not move up even though stock price moved that is bearish sign
2) decreased volume trend
3) see with Telecharts you can have colors for 9/20/50 moving avg. crosses good visual indicator .
-----------
How to trade earnings
Double Trouble is a very simple relative strength system. One of the unique things in it is that it uses absolute strength instead of relative strength. Stocks has to double before being considered for a trade. In relative strength, one just ranks stocks by annual rate of return and takes the top 10% or so.
However many of you have trouble finding a software to do the exact calculations for Double Trouble. The other problem you face with Double Trouble is many possible opportunities on day to day basis. To overcome such problem here is a modified Double Trouble method. I can not think of a new name for it currently, but at some stage will rename it.
This is extremely Telechart friendly version.
1. Calculate relative rank using : ((C - AVGC135 ) / AVGC135)
2. Take the top 2% stocks ranked by the above scan.
3. Run a combined month weakness plus breakout scan on the top 2% stock. :(100 * (C1 - C22) / C22) < 10 AND ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 4 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1
4. You will get 0 to 5 candidates on daily basis. If you want even lesser number of candidates take 1% only in step 2. In that case you will get 0 to 3 candidates on daily basis in most circumstances.
5. Initial stop at 3 days low. Trail after 20% profit with 10% stop.
6. Risk 1% of equity.
Do your own testing before trading. You will not miss out on major profitable rally. Enjoy your profit.
-------
Some Review on trades and psychology , real good one from March 2009
asr: I should have read and interacted with these kind of guys in March/April 2009 so that I should have seens S&P treend and OIL up trend.
-- see nice 4 crisp charts, I would have kept for OIL 5 min, 15 min, 60 min, daily OIL chart side by side all in one screen
----
TeleChart
asr: for easy of charting ( multi-time frames , industry groups etc..) we can keep Telecharts. If we need to use Alchamy indicators we can have Tradestaion for that purpose.
TeleChart features
This is where the magic of TeleChart begins
One click automatically maintains a highly-indexed, massive stock market databank locally on your hard drive. This results in blazing speed for your custom sorts, charts and scans. You simply cannot attain these lightning speeds when the data is located somewhere else on the Internet. Plus, you can take it with you everywhere you go - on an airplane, in a restaurant or on your living room couch.
Know your industry - it pays off
One click gives you instant access to the current stock's industry WatchList, relative strength, and comparison chart. This allows you to easily get a feel for a stock’s strength within its industry as well as the industry’s overall strength while browsing charts
Create your own custom layouts
Place up to 8 charts across two monitors arranged any way you'd like. Synchronize them by time frame, symbol, and/or indicators. Save as many of your favorite layouts as you'd like.
Ice breakers to kick-start your mind
The note window is more than a place to file away and organize your own thoughts. It includes an archive of hundreds of real-life charting lessons
Got your own math formulas you want to test?
Easily add them into the system. Personal Criteria Formulas are your way to get EXACTLY what you are looking for out of TeleChart. Think of them as building blocks
Checking multiple timeframes will probably impact the results of your trades more than anything else you can do. The good news for you is that most traders simply don't take the time do it. With TeleChart, it's so quick and easy - you will.
Tele charts Price scales
http://www.jimcooper.biz/stockcharts/misc/Using%20Fixed%20Percent%20on%20Telechart%20Price%20Scales%20080907.pdf
education
Don Worden defines the essential attributes of an effective trader and shares the Seven Uses of Technical Analysis - only one of which, he argues, is prediction.
1) Mr.K said it is worth it ( price)
( we saw. it has McCallon T21026 etc.. unique indicator are there )
2) Mr. traderMike uses it ( charts posted )
3) this pro trader use it
This software comes with the proprietary indicators of TimeSegmentVolume, Balance Of Power, and Moneystream that you can not get in any other software package. Though I do not use these indicators alone to justify a long or short, I do use them with the price and volume to make sure that everything is lined up and that the buying is on my side (or selling if I was looking to go short).
The bottom line is that this IS the finest software available. It is the ONLY tool that I could NOT do without. If I did not have my Telechart program to scan the market to find the best candidates
TeleChart features
This is where the magic of TeleChart begins
One click automatically maintains a highly-indexed, massive stock market databank locally on your hard drive. This results in blazing speed for your custom sorts, charts and scans. You simply cannot attain these lightning speeds when the data is located somewhere else on the Internet. Plus, you can take it with you everywhere you go - on an airplane, in a restaurant or on your living room couch.
Know your industry - it pays off
One click gives you instant access to the current stock's industry WatchList, relative strength, and comparison chart. This allows you to easily get a feel for a stock’s strength within its industry as well as the industry’s overall strength while browsing charts
Create your own custom layouts
Place up to 8 charts across two monitors arranged any way you'd like. Synchronize them by time frame, symbol, and/or indicators. Save as many of your favorite layouts as you'd like.
Ice breakers to kick-start your mind
The note window is more than a place to file away and organize your own thoughts. It includes an archive of hundreds of real-life charting lessons
Got your own math formulas you want to test?
Easily add them into the system. Personal Criteria Formulas are your way to get EXACTLY what you are looking for out of TeleChart. Think of them as building blocks
Checking multiple timeframes will probably impact the results of your trades more than anything else you can do. The good news for you is that most traders simply don't take the time do it. With TeleChart, it's so quick and easy - you will.
Tele charts Price scales
http://www.jimcooper.biz/stockcharts/misc/Using%20Fixed%20Percent%20on%20Telechart%20Price%20Scales%20080907.pdf
education
Don Worden defines the essential attributes of an effective trader and shares the Seven Uses of Technical Analysis - only one of which, he argues, is prediction.
1) Mr.K said it is worth it ( price)
( we saw. it has McCallon T21026 etc.. unique indicator are there )
2) Mr. traderMike uses it ( charts posted )
3) this pro trader use it
This software comes with the proprietary indicators of TimeSegmentVolume, Balance Of Power, and Moneystream that you can not get in any other software package. Though I do not use these indicators alone to justify a long or short, I do use them with the price and volume to make sure that everything is lined up and that the buying is on my side (or selling if I was looking to go short).
The bottom line is that this IS the finest software available. It is the ONLY tool that I could NOT do without. If I did not have my Telechart program to scan the market to find the best candidates
Investment Reads , books , good books
When I read Vervoort's new book Capturing Profit with Technical Analysis, I was so impressed with its straightforward, no nonsense educational format that I felt compelled to invite him in for a Q&A. Mr. Vervoort's book is the best trading book I've read this year.
Mr. Vervoort has earned high respect among the traders who develop their trading strategies on rigorous backtesting and technical analysis. His claim to fame more recently has been an excellent series of articles that have appeared in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Many of you are already quite familiar with his work as you've seen at least one of his indicators, the Modified ATR Stop, at use in many of the stock charts I share. Though I've used a variation of ATR analysis for many years, his variation and other indicators Vervoort has developed have been useful.
-----
Mr. K. top favorite books
Getting Started in Chart Patterns
I gave this book five stars because no more stars are available. Otherwise I would give it ten or twenty. Why would I buy this book?
1) First off, this is a cheap way of learning about the chart patterns from the expert.
2) Secondly, the book presents very nice section on failing patterns ( busted ).
3) Thirdly, while there is some literature out there on the patterns, I believe Tom Bulkowski was the first in the history of TA who actually conducted so thorough research on pattern performance.
--
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market
1. It's very readable.
The author describes his investing style as a narrative. It takes you through his investing evolution step-by-step, detailing his actual experiences. This made it very easy to follow, and also more real.
2. It emphasizes both technical and fundamental criteria.
This is critical to good investing. Both areas tell a story. This is the best book I've seen that details an investors journey through to discover that both matter, and integrate the two pictures.
3. It makes for a better system, in some ways, than Investor's Business Daily.
I noticed other reviews that noted the similarity between IBD and Darvas. While they are similar styles, there are some key differences. First, Darvas looks for companies that have a good high-growth STORY, but does not necessarily require the company to have high-growth earnings. He doesn't look at ROI, earnings growth rate, etc. (at least not in this book)
asr: Mr. K screening also seems looking for high-growth story before technical setup (based on his blog)
The potential advantage of this approach over IBD is that sometimes stock prices reflect earnings potential BEFORE actual earnings show up. Alternatively, sometimes stock prices reflect perceived earnings declines BEFORE the actual decline in earnings.
4. His system makes sense from a technical standpoint, but is actually harder to do than you might think.
I like his system because it's technically sound. For example, it emphasizes taking small losses and being patient for large gains (among many other things).
other review of this book:
As I flip back through it's pages, what stands out to me most now, is how extensive and illustrative (yes, actual photos of his charts, And original Western Union telegrams, in black & white) his trading activity is proven and presented to the reader. And what's great is that even his ongoing Profit/Loss math that is well-placed throughout the book in basic facts and figures, doesn't take anything away from his otherwise suspense-fully fascinating story. They actual help maintain it's authenticity.
--------
Fire Your Stock Analyst!: Analyzing Stocks On Your Own
asr: I need this fundamental analysis book....
review
My problem: I've tried to read various books on fundamental analysis, but most put me to sleep.
This book is different. It is packed with solid, step-by-step directions on how to perform your own fundamental analysis. Tips include screening for candidates, determining a stock's current valuation, setting a target price, and how to determine if the company is a potential Enron or Kmart. This is far from an exhaustive list of what you will learn.
Best of all, these techniques have been taken from money managers with a track record of beating the S&P, from Richard Dreihaus to the infamous short seller Jim Chanos.
Domash provides a highly readable, useful, and important book for the intelligent stock investor. Whether you are an investor or a trader, you will understand how those who move the markets tend to think. Read it if you want to make money.
review 2:
For example, Domash explains the difference between Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Capital (ROC). The author is obviously a very experienced stock analyst with a wealth of practical techniques for readers to use.
review 3:
The Best and Only Complete Book on Stock Analysis!!, November 11, 2008
By Ozan S "engineer_c" (USA) - See all my reviews
Domash has done it. This is the book that covers everything you need to know abaout analyzing a stock. And that is what makes the book "the best" book on stock investing. Many say that Graham's Intelligent Investor is the best, but I think it is not, since although valuable all it does is giving you a bunch of screening criteria at the end of the day. This is coming from a person who knows the CFA curriculum inside out!!
------------
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
Finally this book is also on Mr. K top book list ...
Mr. Vervoort has earned high respect among the traders who develop their trading strategies on rigorous backtesting and technical analysis. His claim to fame more recently has been an excellent series of articles that have appeared in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Many of you are already quite familiar with his work as you've seen at least one of his indicators, the Modified ATR Stop, at use in many of the stock charts I share. Though I've used a variation of ATR analysis for many years, his variation and other indicators Vervoort has developed have been useful.
-----
Mr. K. top favorite books
Getting Started in Chart Patterns
I gave this book five stars because no more stars are available. Otherwise I would give it ten or twenty. Why would I buy this book?
1) First off, this is a cheap way of learning about the chart patterns from the expert.
2) Secondly, the book presents very nice section on failing patterns ( busted ).
3) Thirdly, while there is some literature out there on the patterns, I believe Tom Bulkowski was the first in the history of TA who actually conducted so thorough research on pattern performance.
--
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market
1. It's very readable.
The author describes his investing style as a narrative. It takes you through his investing evolution step-by-step, detailing his actual experiences. This made it very easy to follow, and also more real.
2. It emphasizes both technical and fundamental criteria.
This is critical to good investing. Both areas tell a story. This is the best book I've seen that details an investors journey through to discover that both matter, and integrate the two pictures.
3. It makes for a better system, in some ways, than Investor's Business Daily.
I noticed other reviews that noted the similarity between IBD and Darvas. While they are similar styles, there are some key differences. First, Darvas looks for companies that have a good high-growth STORY, but does not necessarily require the company to have high-growth earnings. He doesn't look at ROI, earnings growth rate, etc. (at least not in this book)
asr: Mr. K screening also seems looking for high-growth story before technical setup (based on his blog)
The potential advantage of this approach over IBD is that sometimes stock prices reflect earnings potential BEFORE actual earnings show up. Alternatively, sometimes stock prices reflect perceived earnings declines BEFORE the actual decline in earnings.
4. His system makes sense from a technical standpoint, but is actually harder to do than you might think.
I like his system because it's technically sound. For example, it emphasizes taking small losses and being patient for large gains (among many other things).
other review of this book:
As I flip back through it's pages, what stands out to me most now, is how extensive and illustrative (yes, actual photos of his charts, And original Western Union telegrams, in black & white) his trading activity is proven and presented to the reader. And what's great is that even his ongoing Profit/Loss math that is well-placed throughout the book in basic facts and figures, doesn't take anything away from his otherwise suspense-fully fascinating story. They actual help maintain it's authenticity.
--------
Fire Your Stock Analyst!: Analyzing Stocks On Your Own
asr: I need this fundamental analysis book....
review
My problem: I've tried to read various books on fundamental analysis, but most put me to sleep.
This book is different. It is packed with solid, step-by-step directions on how to perform your own fundamental analysis. Tips include screening for candidates, determining a stock's current valuation, setting a target price, and how to determine if the company is a potential Enron or Kmart. This is far from an exhaustive list of what you will learn.
Best of all, these techniques have been taken from money managers with a track record of beating the S&P, from Richard Dreihaus to the infamous short seller Jim Chanos.
Domash provides a highly readable, useful, and important book for the intelligent stock investor. Whether you are an investor or a trader, you will understand how those who move the markets tend to think. Read it if you want to make money.
review 2:
For example, Domash explains the difference between Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Capital (ROC). The author is obviously a very experienced stock analyst with a wealth of practical techniques for readers to use.
review 3:
The Best and Only Complete Book on Stock Analysis!!, November 11, 2008
By Ozan S "engineer_c" (USA) - See all my reviews
Domash has done it. This is the book that covers everything you need to know abaout analyzing a stock. And that is what makes the book "the best" book on stock investing. Many say that Graham's Intelligent Investor is the best, but I think it is not, since although valuable all it does is giving you a bunch of screening criteria at the end of the day. This is coming from a person who knows the CFA curriculum inside out!!
------------
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
Finally this book is also on Mr. K top book list ...
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Broader Market ETF
Welcome to The Week In Charts! Every week we take a look at what has transpired in the markets over the past 5 days and where you should be looking for opportunities in the week to come.
$AUDUSD, $EEM, $EPI, $EURUSD, $EWZ, $FXI, $GBPUSD, $GLD, $IWM, $JJC, $JJG, $JNK, $LQD, $QQQQ, $RSX, $SLV, $SPY, $TLT, $UNG, $USDCAD, $USDJPY, $USDX, $USO
$SPY - S&P index
FAS - Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF)
FAZ - Fin. Bear 3X
LQD - investment corporate Bond
JNK - high yield bond
USO/USL - US oil Long
GLD - gold
SLV - silver
UNG - US Natural gas
JJC - copper
JJG - Grains
FXE - EURO
UUP - US dollar UP bullish
UDN - US dollar DOWN bearish
$EEM - emerging markets ETF -- international ETFs
FXI - chian FTSE/Xihua ETF
RSX - RUssia
EWZ - Brazil
$EPI - india earnings fund ETF
$AUDUSD, $EEM, $EPI, $EURUSD, $EWZ, $FXI, $GBPUSD, $GLD, $IWM, $JJC, $JJG, $JNK, $LQD, $QQQQ, $RSX, $SLV, $SPY, $TLT, $UNG, $USDCAD, $USDJPY, $USDX, $USO
$SPY - S&P index
FAS - Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF)
FAZ - Fin. Bear 3X
LQD - investment corporate Bond
JNK - high yield bond
USO/USL - US oil Long
GLD - gold
SLV - silver
UNG - US Natural gas
JJC - copper
JJG - Grains
FXE - EURO
UUP - US dollar UP bullish
UDN - US dollar DOWN bearish
$EEM - emerging markets ETF -- international ETFs
FXI - chian FTSE/Xihua ETF
RSX - RUssia
EWZ - Brazil
$EPI - india earnings fund ETF
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