Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Oil slips below $59 on global growth pessimism

Trader and analyst Stephen Schork noted that the reaction to Beijing's planned economic stimulus package earlier this week -- and the subsequent oil price fluctuations -- were symptomatic of the jittery state the market finds itself in.

"It is important to remember that price is a function of the crowd's emotional input to a given fundamental event." he said in a research note. "Thus, those traders who thought it was a good idea to pay $65 Sunday night were probably the same traders who had to sell (at) $59 yesterday afternoon."

Investors have brushed off two recent production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and prices have continued to fall amid talk of a third quota output reduction next month.

Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, said Tuesday that "fair" oil prices of between $70 to $90 per barrel would ensure that expensive oil exploration could continue and help to avert price spikes in the future.

"The market has become so demand focused that obvious support mechanisms, like OPEC cutting supply, don't have the same impact," said Pervan, who expects prices to fall to $45 a barrel during the first quarter of next year.
asr: how come OPEC minister said $45 a barrel ? , usually middle east govt. won't say lower prices ?

Investors will be watching for signs of slowing U.S. demand in the weekly oil inventories report to be released by the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that oil stocks rose 1.1 million barrels last week, according to the average of estimates in a survey of analysts by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Platts survey also showed that analysts projected gasoline inventories rose 850,000 million barrels and distillates increased 1 million barrels last week.

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