Thursday, July 31, 2008

China to Be World's Top Manufacturer of Green Energy Technology

About 16 percent of China's electricity came from renewable sources in 2006, led by the world's largest number of hydroelectric generators, according to the report. The nation's goal is to increase the proportion of renewable electricity to 23 percent by 2020.

China invested over $12 billion in renewable energy in 2007, second only to Germany. The nation needs to invest another $398 billion to reach its 2020 renewable energy goals, an average of $33 billion a year, the report said.

The government wants to reduce the amount of energy China uses to produce each unit of economic output by 20 percent in two years and has told its 1,000 largest energy-consuming companies to cut their power consumption even more, according to the report.

China's six largest solar-cell makers had a market value of over $14 billion at the beginning of this year.

In 2007, each of China's 1.3 billion people emitted 5.1 tons of carbon, less than the 8.6 tons from each European and the 19.4 tons for each American. Last month, the world's richest countries, which are responsible for almost half the world's emissions, pledged to cut heat-trapping pollution by at least 50 percent by 2050.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Solar energy Home Use

Green and Gold SolarCube
- this gives real assessment of the cost , for US homes with 30 Kwh/day usage you need 18 of them costing $20,000
- for indian kind of scenario low usage of power the cost may be $10,000
- It seems the cost is same as Roof top PV cells costing $25,000/house with out subsidy

- Blog shows good discussion , so that you can learn what is real and what is possible

for Remote Vacation homes:
----------------------------
- you can use Solar PV or this CUbe kind of systems where there is no electricity in wild remote vacation places ..
- see the Indian distributor
- usual remote vacation places you will have either wind or good SUN to buy one of these systems ...
----------------

HelioStat Pictures
Heliostat and Solar Tracking Products
http://www.heliotrack.com/PV-Thermal/index.html -- PV is to generate electricity
http://www.heliotrack.com/Heliostat1M.html
http://www.heliotrack.com/Parabolic.html

http://www.heliotrack.com/LibraryFiles/heliostat%20comparason.pdf -- paper explains ..

Solar Thermal Energy coming to a boil - Peak Oil

Solar Thermal Energy coming to a boil - Peak Oil
Written by Jonathan G. Dorn
Tuesday, 22 July 2008

Data for Solar Thermal Power Coming to a Boil
After emerging in 2006 from 15 years of hibernation, the solar thermal power industry experienced a surge in 2007, with 100 megawatts of new capacity coming online worldwide. During the 1990s, cheap fossil fuels, combined with a loss of state and federal incentives, put a damper on solar thermal power development. However, recent increases in energy prices, escalating concerns about global climate change, and fresh economic incentives are renewing interest in this technology.

Considering that the energy in sunlight reaching the earth in just 70 minutes is equivalent to annual global energy consumption, the potential for solar power is virtually unlimited. With concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) capacity expected to double every 16 months over the next five years, worldwide installed CSP capacity will reach 6,400 megawatts in 2012--14 times the current capacity. (See data at http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2008/Update73_data.htm#table1.)

Unlike solar photovoltaics (PVs), which use semiconductors to convert sunlight directly into electricity, CSP plants generate electricity using heat. Much like a magnifying glass, reflectors focus sunlight onto a fluid-filled vessel. The heat absorbed by the fluid is used to generate steam that drives a turbine to produce electricity. Power generation after sunset is possible by storing excess heat in large, insulated tanks filled with molten salt. Since CSP plants require high levels of direct solar radiation to operate efficiently, deserts make ideal locations.

Two big advantages of CSP over conventional power plants are that the electricity generation is clean and carbon-free and, since the sun is the energy source, there are no fuel costs. Energy storage in the form of heat is also significantly cheaper than battery storage of electricity, providing CSP with an economical means to overcome intermittency and deliver dispatchable power.

The United States and Spain are leading the world in the development of solar thermal power, with a combined total of over 5,600 megawatts of new capacity expected to come online by 2012. Representing over 90 percent of the projected new capacity by 2012, the output from these plants would be enough to meet the electrical needs of more than 1.7 million homes.

The largest solar thermal power complex in operation today is the Solar Electricity Generating Station in the Mojave Desert in California. Coming online between 1985 and 1991, the 354-megawatt complex has been producing enough power for 100,000 homes for almost two decades. In June 2007, the 64-megawatt Nevada Solar One plant became the first multi-megawatt commercial CSP plant to come online in the United States in 16 years.

Today, more than a dozen new CSP plants are being planned in the United States, with some 3,100 megawatts expected to come online by 2012. (See data at http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2008/Update73.htm#table6.) Some impressive CSP projects in the planning stages include the 553-megawatt Mojave Solar Park in California, the 500-megawatt Solar One and 300-megawatt Solar Two projects in California, a 300-megawatt facility in Florida, and the 280-megawatt Solana plant in Arizona.

In Spain, the first commercial-scale CSP plant to begin operation outside the United States since the mid-1980s came online in 2007: the 11-megawatt PS10 tower. The tower is part of the 300-megawatt SolĂșcar Platform, which, when completed in 2013, will contain ten CSP plants and produce enough electricity to supply 153,000 homes while preventing 185,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions annually. All told, more than 60 plants are in the pipeline in Spain, with 2,570 megawatts expected to come online by 2012.

Economic and policy incentives are partly responsible for the renewed interest in CSP. The incentives in the United States include a 30-percent federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar through the end of 2008, which has good prospects for being extended, and Renewable Portfolio Standards in 26 states. California requires that utilities get 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2010, and Nevada requires 20 percent by 2015, with at least 5 percent from solar power. The primary incentive in Spain is a feed-in tariff that guarantees that utilities will pay power producers €0.26 (40¢) per kilowatt-hour for electricity generated by CSP plants for 25 years.

In the southwestern United States, the cost of electricity from CSP plants (including the federal ITC) is roughly 13–17¢ per kilowatt-hour, meaning that CSP with thermal storage is competitive today with simple-cycle natural gas-fired power plants. The U.S. Department of Energy aims to reduce CSP costs to 7–10¢ per kilowatt-hour by 2015 and to 5–7¢ per kilowatt-hour by 2020, making CSP competitive with fossil-fuel-based power sources.

Outside the United States and Spain, regulatory incentives in France, Greece, Italy, and Portugal are expected to stimulate the installation of 3,200 megawatts of CSP capacity by 2020. China anticipates building 1,000 megawatts by that time. Other countries developing CSP include Australia, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. (See map at http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2008/Update73_data.htm#fig7.)

Using CSP plants to power electric vehicles could further reduce CO2 emissions and provide strategic advantages by relaxing dependence on oil. In Israel, a tender issued by the Ministry for National Infrastructures for the construction of CSP plants and a 19.4¢ per kilowatt-hour feed-in tariff for solar power systems are sparking interest in developing up to 250 megawatts of CSP in the Negev Desert. This would produce enough electricity to run the 100,000 electric cars that Project Better Place, a company focused on building an electric personal transportation system, is planning to put on Israeli roads by the end of 2010.

A study by Ausra, a solar energy company based in California, indicates that over 90 percent of fossil fuel–generated electricity in the United States and the majority of U.S. oil usage for transportation could be eliminated using solar thermal power plants--and for less than it would cost to continue importing oil. The land requirement for the CSP plants would be roughly 15,000 square miles (38,850 square kilometers, the equivalent of 15 percent of the land area of Nevada). While this may sound like a large tract, CSP plants use less land per equivalent electrical output than large hydroelectric dams when flooded land is included, or than coal plants when factoring in land used for coal mining. Another study, published in Scientific American in January 2008, proposes using CSP and PV plants to produce 69 percent of U.S. electricity and 35 percent of total U.S. energy, including transportation, by 2050.

CSP plants on less than 0.3 percent of the desert areas of North Africa and the Middle East could generate enough electricity to meet the needs of these two regions plus the European Union. Realizing this, the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation--an initiative of The Club of Rome, the Hamburg Climate Protection Foundation, and the National Energy Research Center of Jordan--conceived the DESERTEC Concept in 2003. This plan to develop a renewable energy network to transmit power to Europe from the Middle East and North Africa calls for 100,000 megawatts of CSP to be built throughout the Middle East and North Africa by 2050. Electricity delivery to Europe would occur via direct current transmission cables across the Mediterranean. Taking the lead in making the concept a reality, Algeria plans to build a 3,000-kilometer cable between the Algerian town of Adrar and the German city of Aachen to export 6,000 megawatts of solar thermal power by 2020.

If the projected annual growth rate of CSP through 2012 is maintained to 2020, global installed CSP capacity would exceed 200,000 megawatts--equivalent to 135 coal-fired power plants. With billions of dollars beginning to flow into the CSP industry and U.S. restrictions on carbon emissions imminent, CSP is primed to reach such capacity.

Gloabl Energy challenges and solutions

It seems we need to provide probable energy for transportation which is clean energy like Natural gas, electric taking Petroleum's fuel out of equation. Here are 2 approaches
1. Have wind and Solar power Grid grade farms that will take Natural gas out of power generation ( as mentioned by Texas wind man ). World 25% electricity is generated from Natural gas. Replace it with Wind , Solar , Nuclier
2. Once you take Nat gas out of power generation , use it for transport . Start with Laws mandating 20% of Fleet with Nat gas instead of oil
3. Once Nat gas come to transportation that will push oil in transport from 90% to 50% . You can have all Oil stations carry Nat. gas so that vehicles can change it like filling you oil tank.


Roof top Home Solar energy generation:
This is still costs $20,000 to start with in Western countries ( for 30 KWh/day power => 10,000 KWh/year ), may be half of it $10,000 in India etc..
- Instead of government giving susidies to all these people , same govt. subsidies can be better used when given to grid level 20, 50, 100 MW Solar thermal, Wind energy plants.
-- see Nano Solar discussion , not economical

Clean coal technology
- A 2003 study conducted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Greenhouse gases, found that the cost of building a shell-designed IGCC that doesn't capture carbon could cost $1,371 per kW. A comparable system that captures carbon could cost $1,860 per kW.
( asr: so it adds 50% more to existing consumer electricity bill , so this clean COAL is NOT price competative with solar/wind etc.. as total cost )
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle



supports:
Texas 4000 MW wind turbines ( phase 1 1000 MW )
UK 500 MW ocean Wind power
German Sahara desert mega plans
esloar , Asura Solar-Thermal
India , china big Wind and Solar new frams and government support
Russina companies building Nat. gas stations all over europe ( see Texas wind man story )

Links:
thefraserdomain -- James Fraser ( asr: can be good consultant ..)
http://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/paginas/index.asp
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NERL)
solarpaces.org
The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)
American Wind Energy Association (AWEA)
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE)
International Energy Agency(IEA)
International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA)

U.S. Parabolic Trough Power Plant Data
eSolar
Ausra
http://www.energyinnovations.com/
http://www.brightsourceenergy.com/faq.htm
- google invested in both
Suzlon
sunpowercorp - PV Solar

Data for Solar Thermal Power Coming to a Boil -- All upcoming Solar power capcity
2007 CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER FROM RESEARCH TO IMPLEMENTATION by the European Commission -- great detail ..
Concentrating solar power plants (CSP)- How it works
Library/NewDocs.htm

Storage: Seems Molten salt can be used for 12 hour storage to store peak sun time generation for night time transmission

Public companies
----------------------
First Solar
- see $28 Billion Market Cap
- in 1 year stock trippled, it will crash as dozens of new palyers coming into this PV solar cells
- seems all this hype is based on two contracts with SC Edition company

SunPower marketcap $6 Billion , already drop 50% from 2008 Jan peak
- Edition capital is self is $15 Billion: so 'First Solar' is pure hype (asr)
a financial services provider segment (Edison Capital). In the electric utility operation segment, the Company operates through its subsidiary, Southern California Edison Company (SCE). In the non-utility power generation segment, it operates through Mission Energy Holding Company (MEHC) and Edison Mission Energy (EME).
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Vinod Kholsa on CSP ( see video )

Monday, July 28, 2008

Low-cost Solar Thermal Plants at Heart of Algerian-German Research Push

by Jane Burgermeister, European Correspondent
Vienna, Austria [RenewableEnergyWorld.com]

The development of a new generation of large-scale, low-cost solar thermal power plants is the focus of a joint research agreement signed between Algeria and Germany.

"Energy in the future will come from many different sources, including biomass and geothermal, but solar thermal power plants can definitely play a big part when they become cost competitive."

-- Bernhard Milow, German Aerospace Center

Researchers will be sharing data and expertise to speed up the market introduction of large-scale solar thermal plants. The plants could supply up to 200 megawatts (MW) of electricity and desalinate water for 50,000 people.

Electricity from solar thermal plants could cost as little as €0.04/kilowatt hour (kWh) [US $0.06/kWh] by 2015 to 2020, Bernhard Milow from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) said. And using solar thermal power to desalinate seawater could cost the same.

"The technology and science is all there. It's just a question of transferring that knowledge to those who have the sunshine and optimizing the technology to make it competitive," Milow said.

Electricity from solar thermal plants currently costs €0.20 to 0.30/kWh [US $0.31 to 0.47/kWh], depending on the location of the plant and the amount of sunshine it receives. But with improvements in the performance of plants and better sites, solar thermal electricity could soon be cheaper than coal, and so generate huge amounts of reliable, clean electricity in hot desert regions, Milow said.

Even factoring in high steel prices and other costs, a kWh of electricity could still be as low as €0.06-0.07/kWh [US $0.09-0.11/kWh] if the power plants are in prime locations, Milow said.

By 2050, he estimated that 10 - 25 percent of Europe's electricity needs could be supplied by North African solar thermal plants.

The agreement between the DLR in Germany and the New Energy Algeria (NEAL) in Algeria will allow German researchers access to data from the 150 MW hybrid solar-gas plant at Hassi R'mel, 420 kilometers south of Algiers. The plant is due to go into operation in 2009 and has a 25 MW solar energy capacity with a parabola trough design. The DLR researchers will look at ways of optimizing the design and manufacture of the component parts and the efficiency of the collectors and absorbers.

Another area for research will be thermal storage technology.

"The DLR has 30 years of experience in solar thermal power technology while Algeria has the right sites for these plants, and has committed itself developing the technology for its own use and for export to Europe, so we can help each other out," Milow said.

Algeria has introduced a feed-in tariff for electricity from solar thermal plants to boost the use of the technology, and NEAL plans to build pure solar thermal plants without gas as soon as the technology allows it. The typical solar thermal plant of the future could be as large 200 MW and supply electricity to 250,000 people and fresh water to 50,000 people.

In fact, solar thermal desalination plants could turn as much as 100,000 m³ / day of sea water into fresh, clean water — and so help boost agriculture and secure the supply of drinking water in a region increasingly hit by drought. According to a German study, there is already a shortfall of 50 billion cubic meters of fresh water in the region and that shortfall is set to grow to 150 billion by 2050. Algeria is particularly rich in sites suitable for solar thermal desalination plants.

The DLR has identified the best locations for plants using satellite images to encourage investment.

"80 percent of the finance for solar thermal projects will come from private investors who will be looking for the best return. That means finding places where there are as few clouds as possible," said Milow.

The DLR has used weather data going back for decades to identity locations with the most sunshine. An average of 2200 kWh of solar radiation falls on each square meter of Algeria with 2650 kWh falling on the Sahara desert region; this compares to just 1000 kWh falling on a square meter in Germany. One study estimated that solar energy harnessed just from Algeria could supply 60 times the electricity needs of Europe.

To transport the electricity to Europe, a 1,875 mile high voltage direct current cable is to be built between Algeria and Germany, running through Sardinia, Italy and Switzerland.

"Getting permission from all these countries to build this cable could slow down the project for years because of all the red tape. But the cable will be able to carry electricity to Europe with only about a 10 percent loss," Milow said. He said small quantities of electricity could be imported into Germany as early as 2010.

The DLR is also carrying out parallel research on a pilot 1.5 MW solar tower power plant in Julich in northern Germany.

"We need to do research on several solar thermal technologies to find the best one," Milow said.

He said that the same model could be used in Australia for electricity and water desalination.

"Plants in Australia could even supply enough fresh water to ensure good, reliable harvests in key crop growing areas that have seen yields drop dramatically because of drought. Israel already successfully uses desalinated water for agriculture, so it has been shown to work in practice, " said Milow.

The southern states of America could also expand their solar thermal plants and eventually export electricity to the northern states, Milow said. Solar thermal power plants have been in commercial use in southern California since 1985. Last year, the 64 MW parabola trough Nevada Solar One plant went into operation.

In Spain, 10 new solar thermal plants are being planned. Spain, which introduced a 25-year guaranteed feed-in tariff of €0.26/kWh [US $0.40/kWh] for solar thermal electricity, is building Europe's two biggest parabola trough solar power plants, Andasol I and II, in Andalusia. The 11 MW PS10 solar power tower has also started operating close to Seville in southern Spain.

New plants are also being planned in Abu Dhabi, Eygpt, Iran, Israel, Mexico, and Morocco. Milow said Morocco and the Red Sea region could also tap wind power in addition to the sunshine to generate clean energy.

"Energy in the future will come from many different sources, including biomass and geothermal, but solar thermal power plants can definitely play a big part when they become cost competitive," he said.

Looking into the future, networks of decentralized and overlapping renewable energy technologies complemented by irrigation networks and water desalination plants could power economies — and large-scale solar thermal power plants could be playing a key role in the energy supply of many regions.

Jane Burgermeister is a RenewableEnergyWorld.com European Correspondent based in Austria.
---------------------------
Nevada Solar OneLast month, Acciona Energy, a Spanish company, opened a solar thermal installation spread across 400 acres of desert outside Boulder City, Nev., 25 miles southwest of Las Vegas. Called Nevada Solar One, it has 47 miles of trough-shaped mirrors, lined up in rows. Producing 64 megawatts, it is many times larger than the largest photovoltaic installations, which use the cells that are found in everything from rooftop panels to pocket calculators.

Acciona will not disclose the production costs at the thermal plant, which was subsidized by the Energy Department. But according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, representing manufacturers of both photovoltaic and solar thermal systems, power from solar thermal electricity costs 12 to 14 cents a kilowatt-hour to produce, while power from solar cells costs 18 to 40 cents a kilowatt-hour. The national average retail price of electricity is about 10.5 cents a kilowatt-hour.

Indian Govt offers 80% incentive to push solar power

Chennai, July 13. 2008 The Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) has fixed an interim tariff of Rs 3.15 a kWh for grid connected solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power generation plants.

The cost of generating 1 MW of power from a solar plant is Rs15-20 million.
asr: Rs. 20 million => 20/40 = $1/2 Milion => $500,000 ( as per indian estimate )


This will be the purchase rate at which the distribution licensee – the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board – will buy power from the solar power producers.

The order is significant in that this paves the way for the proposed grid connected solar power projects to get additional benefits offered by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to promote solar power.

The Ministry will offer priority to those projects in the States where the State Electricity Regulatory Commission has approved or notified a tariff for solar power.

The Ministry, through the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, will provide a generation-based incentive of Rs 12 a kWh for solar photovoltaic projects and Rs 10 a kWh for solar thermal power generation projects eligible for such incentives. Only units that are commissioned before December 31, 2009 are fully eligible for this support.

Under this programme the Ministry plans to support installation of up to 50 MW of solar power projects. Projects with an aggregate capacity of up to 10 MW in a State would be considered for the incentive. Developers can set up a maximum aggregate capacity of 5 MW through a single project or multiple projects of at least 1 MW each.

The incentive offered is to develop and demonstrate the technical performance of grid interactive solar power generation and reduce cost of the grid connected solar power generation.
-----------
Govt flooded with applications for new solar plants
Tuesday, 24 June , 2008, 16:07
Last Updated: Tuesday, 24 June , 2008, 16:24


Asansol (West Bengal): The Central Government has received several proposals for setting up solar power plants that would generate a total of 2,000 MW, New and Renewable Energy Secretary V Subramanian said.

"We have got proposals to set up solar power plants across India. Taken together, the proposals add up to 2,000 MW capacity. We will forward the proposals to the cabinet committee concerned and carry forward whatever decision they take," Subramanian said.

Also in the news: Gandhigiri, striptease fail to help auto driver | Column: Open Letters: Dear Bal Thackeray

He was speaking at the foundation stone laying ceremony of the country's first grid-connected solar power project here. "We had earlier planned to give incentives for generating an additional 50 MW from solar plants this year and have asked for expression of interest for that," he said.

The Department has kept aside Rs.1 billion for this. But now, after receiving proposals for 2,000 MW, this cost will multiply."

The cost of generating 1 MW of power from a solar plant is Rs15-20 million.
asr: Rs. 20 million => 20/40 = $1/2 Milion => $500,000 ( as per indian estimate )

Subramanian said the centre has also received applications for generating a total of 500 MW by setting up solar thermal plants.

Incidentally, West Bengal Green Energy Development Corporation (WBGEDC) is executing a Rs 400 million solar power project at the Dishergarh Power Station Complex in Burdwan district. The company has taken a Rs 309 million loan from the Power Finance Corporation for the project.

The Central Government would pay a generation-based incentive of Rs10 per unit.

Subramanian said although the cost of producing green power was quite high, it would be at par with conventional energy costs by 2017.
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Govt offers 80% incentive to push solar power
BS Reporter / New Delhi January 02, 2008
In a push to develop solar energy in the country, the government has announced that it would bear up to 80% of the cost of generating power.

The cost of generating one unit of solar power is Rs 15. The central government, in partnership with state governments, will give incentives of up to Rs 12 per unit of the cost of generating the power.

The ministry of new and renewable energy, has drawn up a roadmap of generating 50 MW of solar power in the current Five-Year Plan that ends in 2012. "Some states such as Punjab and West Bengal have already shown interest. Each state can easily generate up to 10 MW of solar power. Together with the state governments, we want to incentivise this clean energy source," said minister of new and renewable energy Vilas Muttemwar.

The incentive for generating the planned 50 MW of solar power would result in government spending of close to Rs 90 crore.

The incentive is being given "in view of the present high initial capital cost of setting up solar power plants and the cost of electricity from such plants," the minister said.

The cost of setting up a solar power generating unit is around Rs 20 crore per MW. For setting up a thermal power plant, the cost is around Rs 4 per MW, while for hydropower it is around Rs 6 per MW.

"The gestation period of a solar power unit is much shorter than that for a thermal or hydropower plant," Muttemwar said.

The government is focussing on setting up solar power generating unit in west and central India, "which receives the maximum sunlight," Muttemwar said. He added that the main states would be Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

"The 50 MW generation could come up as early as in the next year and a half," he said.

The power generated from the solar unit would be fed into the grid. "The incentives will be given only for the electricity that is fed into the grid and not for that which companies use for captive purposes," Muttemwar said
----------------------
Power in the wind
Bikram Singh Virk :The writer is from NJSA Government College, Kapurthala

asr: article is dated 20051118 , so info is 2006 January info .
Historically, India has witnessed energy shortages. According to the Central Electricity Authority, in fiscal 2005, demand for electricity exceeded supply by an estimated 7.3 per cent (7.1 per cent in fiscal 2004) in terms of total requirements and 11.7 per cent (11.2 per cent in fiscal 2004) in terms of peak demand requirements. Although power generation capacity has increased substantially in recent years, it has not kept pace with the growth in demand or the growth of the economy generally.

According to the United Nations,
India, with 355 kwh per capita electricity consumption in 2000, has one of the lowest electricity consumption levels in the world, in part due to unreliable supply and inadequate distribution networks.
This contrasts with 827 kwh per capita in China,
1,878 kwh per capita in Brazil and
12,331 kWh per capita in the United States, in 2000.


As of March 31, 2005, India’s power system had an installed generation capacity of approximately 115,544.8 MW. Of the installed capacity, thermal power plants powered by coal, gas naphtha or oil accounted for approximately 69.4 per cent of total power capacity. Hydroelectric stations accounted for approximately 26 per cent and others (including nuclear stations and wind power) accounted for approximately 4.5 per cent.

Wind energy is emerging as a strong source of power generation in the world. From a meager share of 0.2 per cent in the total installed capacity, share of wind power is expected to go up to 3 per cent by 2030. The countries like Denmark are meeting 20 per cent of their power needs from wind energy.

Wind power exploration started in India way back in 1983-84 with the information of an independent Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES). The MNES has promoted a market-oriented strategy which has led to commercial development of wind technology.

The total wind power potential in the country’s 45,000 MW.

Seven states in India (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh) have the highest potential and account for over 99 per cent of wind power installations in India.

Five companies, Suzlon, NEPC, Vestas RRB, Enercon and GE Wind in the private sector are establishing wind farms in these seven states. Suzlon at the moment is the market leader with 42.8 per cent of the total installed capacity in India, followed by Vestas with 32 per cent and Enercon with 15.2 per cent of the total installed capacity in the country. The wind power is gaining popularity due to its clean generation process and falling per kilowatt hour cost of generation. According to US, the cost power kwh of wind power, which was $ 0.38 in 1980s had come down to 0.03 to 0.08 $ per kwh. Moreover, the carbon credits which are given to the clean energy generators under the Kyoto Climate Summit of 1997, are also an attraction to the power generators in this sector.

The wind turbine generators (WTG) in the wind farms set up in Maharashtra, MP, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have been purchased by some of the leading companies like Bajaj Auto, Tata Power, John Deere and Nirma. The power generated at the wind farms is supplied to the state electricity boards at a pre-agreed price ranging between Rs. 3 and 3.48 per unit. The state electricity board supplies the power to these industries at their factories after receiving the wheeling charges. If the power is not used by any owner, he may get the payment in cash after deduction of certain charges by the SEB as per agreement.
(asr: it seems this is the way Private companies ensure they get electricity they want by giving it to grid with their own Wind turbines some where so they do not have power cuts )

Earlier, the WTGs installed by the power generating companies were 750 kwh to 1000 kwh capacity. But due to improvement in technology, the WTGs with higher capacity of 1250 kwh to 2000 kwh are being installed at the new sites. The cost of installing one WTG of 1000 kwh ranges from Rs 4.5 crore to Rs 5 crore. The companies provide support from installation to running, maintenance and management for 20 years. If tapped fully, India inc. can harness energy equal to 45 Bhakra dams from this environment-friendly source of energy.
------------------------

Title:
Observational evidence of solar dimming: Offsetting surface warming over India
Authors:
Padma Kumari, B.; Londhe, A. L.; Daniel, S.; Jadhav, D. B.
Affiliation:
AA(Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India); AB(Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India); AC(India Meteorological Department, Pune, India); AD(Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)
Publication:
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 21, CiteID L21810 (GeoRL Homepage)
Publication Date:
11/2007


Abstract
Monthly mean surface reaching solar radiation (S) measurements under all sky conditions have been evaluated for 12 stations, which are widely distributed over the Indian region, for the period 1981-2004. It is noteworthy that all the stations showed decline in S ranging from -0.17 to -1.44 W/m2 per year. The average solar dimming observed over India for the period 1981-2004 is ~-0.86 W/m2 per year while during winter, pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons it is ~-0.94, ~-1.04 and ~-0.74 W/m2 per year, respectively. Decadal monthly mean S for the two decades 1981-1990 and 1991-2000 showed strong decline during the second decade with an average reduction of 5% per two decades. Despite the drastic decrease in S, the all India averaged surface maximum and minimum air temperatures have been increasing. But, the change in increase in maximum temperature from the first decade to second decade is only marginal under the present situation of drastic increase in greenhouse gas emissions, while the increase in minimum temperature has been doubled.

Thar Desert – The NextGen Powerhouse of India

By Nitin Phansalkar (nitinphansalkar@yahoo.com)

123 Agreement ultimately promises only 20,000 MW of peak electricity by 2020 for next four decades. The agreement is politically important; however the technology chosen (nuclear) is totally wrong! There are many questions with grey answers when we think of nuclear power and hence these questions become serious concerns. There are technology concerns, legal concerns, operational concerns, sovereignty concerns, safety and security concerns, political concerns and so on. Overall, it may seem that concerns outweigh the benefits (mainly political alignment with US of A).

With this as a backdrop, why can’t we have another agreement with US, say 456 Agreement! 456 Agreement will also be related to electricity; but with a different technology – solar, more specifically, solar thermal! With this agreement we can achieve everything that we hope to achieve with 123 Agreement sans all the concerns! Sounds unbelievable? Then read on…

Bottomline is that India is in dire need of power (electricity). The cheap and dirty “solution” is to have coal fired Ultra Mega Power Plants (UMPP), which are being sanctioned and are being built. These UMPPs will emit humongous amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) aiding pollution and global warming. Also, economical coal supplies will not last long. Hence, it is mandatory for us to brace for sustainable energy solutions. Amongst various sustainable energy sources solar energy is basic, unlimited, freely available and guaranteed (available throughout the year in certain parts of our country) and this article discusses the same.

There are two solar technologies to produce electricity – Photovoltaic (PV) and Thermal. Currently, the PV technology that produces electricity directly from incident solar rays using special grade silicon is quite costly. Also, this technology is suitable for colder regions with ample sunlight as PV cells function better in cold conditions – not ideal for India. The solar thermal technology, on the other hand, is a multipurpose technology. Apart from producing electricity, the same plant can be used for desalination of water. This technology uses the heat component of the solar radiation. It is not very costly.

Here’s how to get electricity from solar heat:

1. Solar rays are concentrated using various techniques like linear fresnel lens (cheapest) or solar tower (promising) or parabolic troughs (proven) or parabolic sterling dishes (ideal for non-grid small plants).
2. Water or oil (as heat transfer fluid) is heated using the concentrated solar rays. In case the oil is used then the oil further heats stored water and steam is produced.
3. This steam drives a steam turbine and electricity is generated.
4. The steam can be used as desalinated water or it can be re-circulated.


In order to maximize the power output, the plant must be located at a place that receives a “plenty” of sun throughout the year. One such place in India is Thar Desert in west Rajasthan. Following characteristics of Thar Desert make it an ideal location for a solar thermal power plant (STPP):

1. Area: 2.34 million km2
2. Solar Intensity: approx 6 kWh/m2/day
3. Sun Availability: 345-355 days in a year
4. Rains occur only for 10-20 days in a year


There are a few “Strategic Advantages” that Thar Desert presents, which would make it a NexGen Powerhouse of India. These are as follows:

1. Strategic Location:
1. South Boundary of Thar Desert:
i. Arabian Sea is just 80-90 kms away and hence a STPP located at the south boundary can double-up as a water desalination plant also providing clean water to local people.
ii. Gujarat industrial cluster is also very near from the south boundary and hence the power generated can act as a peak power to these industrial units at a reasonable rate.

2. North-East Boundary of Thar Desert:
i. Power hungry states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi can get peak power especially during hot summers with a STPP located nearby.

2. As it is a desert, it is scantly populated and most of the land is government owned and hence land acquisition, relocation of local people and associated issues will be minimal.
3. The local people live a tough life as the land is arid and there is no industry. These local people can get a means of livelihood in constructing and maintaining the STPP. STPP will usher-in an era of all round development in this area.


Initially, the STPPs would provide only “Peak-hour Power” i.e. only during daytime when solar energy is available. Later on, when the cost is reduced, the solar energy storage (in the form of say molten salts) can be built to provide power after sunset.

Now we go back to the 456 agreement. Such agreement is necessary since the US has the technology and operational know-how. There are STPPs running in Mojave Desert in California for more than 20 years. They can quickly raise such plants in India. Since this is not a “Dual Use” technology, there won’t be any sovereignty and political concerns. The agreement will achieve the political alignment with the US. The US will get new business opportunities in India.

So what are we waiting for? Let us make the Thar Desert the next clean and green energy hot spot!

A back-of-the-envelope calculation: As written in the article, the solar intensity is 6kwh/m2/day or 250w/m2. Considering the cheapest and most inefficient method of linear fresnel lens having efficiency of 15%, the power produced would be 37.5w/m2. i.e. 37.5MW/KM2 or around 1GW/25 KM2. ...and Thar desert area is 2.28 Lac KM2 (0.28 Million KM2)! So now you can imagine the potential!!!

- Nitin Phansalkar, Coordinator DESERTEC-India
www.desertec-india.org.in


About the author:
The author has a keen interest in the field sustainable energy.
The author studies and practices various aspects of renewable energy.
The author would like to get feedback at nitinphansalkar@yahoo.com

Solar Power

http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2008/04/esolar-receives.html#comments

- great detailed Project report on costs , comparison etc.
http://thegef.org/Documents/Council_Documents/GEF_C25/C.25.Inf.11_World_Bank_Assessment.pdf

http://www.solarpaces.org/Library/docs/STPP%20Final%20Report2.pdf



NERL
http://www.nrel.gov/solar/

Direct Normal Solar Radiation (Two-Axis Tracking Concentrator)—Static Maps

Solar Maps


Wind Maps
Map 2-10 Percent of the land area estimated to have Class 3 or higher wind power in the contiguous United States

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India

Handbook of Solar Radiation (Data for India, 1980), compiled by A. Mani (Allied Publishers Private Limited, New Delhi). Pp. 500. 250 Rupees
B. R. May
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for Wave Ocean Power it is too early based in these posts, western world is just started so 2 more years to go..

Editor's Commentary on Solar power

Thermal Voltaic Power
Posted on: April 30th, 2007 by Ed Ring

We like this characterization of thermal solar concentrators, “thermalvoltaic,” because it calls to mind the fact that thermal energy can be concentrated and turned into electricity just like light can - “photovoltaic.” And as we review solar thermal here, it is important to note that the sun is only one source of thermal voltaic power - geothermal energy is another prime example.
A parabolic trough array glows in the sunlight
Photo: Schott Solar

Unlike the emerging photovoltaic concentrators, thermalvoltaic concentrators, more commonly referred to as solar concentrators or solar thermal arrays, have been around a long time.

There are three primary designs of solar concentrators, all of which use mirrors to concentrate sunlight onto a heat transfer fluid which collects enough energy to drive a turbine which turns an electric generator:

The “power tower” design consists of a field of mirrors which track the sun all day, each of them moving in a pattern that precisely bounces the sunlight onto a centrally located boiler that sits on a tower in the middle of the field. The combined heat from hundreds of these mirrors causes the fluid running through the tower to super-heat, driving a turbine.

A variation on this design consists of a field of parabolic mirrors, similar in shape to satellite dishes, with individual boilers heating fluids on each individual mirror instead of pointing to a central tower. Each unit independently tracks the sun across the sky all day, pointing precisely at the sun so the entire surface of the parabolic mirror reflects sunlight onto the heating fluids.

The third, and apparently most cost-effective version of solar thermal concentrators is referred to as the “parabolic trough” design. This design consists of a field of parallel mirrored troughs, each one of which can be hundreds of feet in length. In the center of each trough, at the focal point of the mirrored surface, runs a tube that absorbs the concentrated solar rays and heats a transfer fluid.

Because the parabolic trough design only rotates on an east-west axis, it is not quite as efficient as the other two designs which rotate on an east-west and a north-south axis in order to point directly at the sun all day. But because the rotation is only on one axis, combined with the fact that parabolic trough units can be hundreds of feet long each, appears to give this design a cost advantage over other designs.

Late last year, when we caught up with Alex Marker, a Research Fellow with Schott Solar, our first question was “why aren’t there more of these thermal voltaic installations in the sunny spots around the world?” Marker noted that the biggest - and until recent years one of the only - commercial scale complex of thermal voltaic arrays are in California’s Mohave Desert, built between 1984 and 1992. (There are nine solar thermal power stations in California’s Mohave Desert, operated by Florida Power and Light, with a combined output of 354 megawatts.) Marker claims, probably correctly, that until now “there wasn’t a compelling need for utilities to change their thinking on how to produce electricity.”

This is clearly true, since - aside from a hybrid solar thermal plant using parabolic trough design constructed about five years ago in Rajasthan, India, producing 140 megawatts - only now are solar thermal, utility scale generating plants being constructed again. Currently they are mostly being built in Spain and the southwest of the USA. Schott Solar has been involved, along with partner Solargenix, in the construction of a 64 megawatt parabolic trough array in Boulder City, Nevada, which broke ground early in 2006 and went online on March 2nd of this year.

According to Marker, the costs for solar thermal electricity could come down to around $.07 per kilowatt-hour, which is definitely a competitive price. To get there, said Marker, the installed base in the world would need to more than quadruple, to around 4 gigawatts, so the expertise would be in place to basically start “cookie cutter” production of the stations.

One of the most interesting things about solar thermal power is that the necessary additions to the balance of plant in order to store some of the accumulated heat is not significant. This means that the thermal energy generated during the day can be stored and used to continue generating power through the night. This is a significant advantage.

Marker stated the power output per acre of solar thermal arrays was about five acres per megawatt. Photovoltaic power, based on 10 watts per square foot, requires about half that much space, as 2.5 acres per megawatt. And as we have demonstrated in “Power the World with Photovoltaics,” there is plenty of land available to pursue the solar electricity option, whether it is with photovoltaic, or thermalvoltaic technologies.

This entry was posted on Monday, April 30th, 2007 at 6:27 pm and is filed under Electricity, Energy, Solar, Solar Thermal. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Responses to “Thermal Voltaic Power”

1. Emosson Says:
April 30th, 2007 at 9:42 pm

NREL has a new homepage for concentrating solar power plants:

NREL Troughnet


The workshop section is most interesting.
2. Cyril R. Says:
March 18th, 2008 at 10:20 am

Let’s see here. The Springerville PV plant covers 44 acres for a total of 4.6 MWp. That’s about 9.6 acres per MWp.

Nevada Solar One (troughs) is about 300 acres for 64 MWp. That’s about 4.7 acres per MWp.

Ausra’s 177 MWp Carrizo plant (CLFR) will be about a square mile once it’s finished, about 640 acres. That’s 3.6 acres per MWp.

Solar thermal is definately more land efficient than PV, especially the CLFR. However, PV could be put on rooftops.

I prefer watts peak per square meter though. Much easier to work with.

India Building Large-Scale Solar Thermal Capacity


Serious Megawatts: India Building Large-Scale Solar Thermal Capacity


By Gordon Feller: October 2, 2002
-asr: see this is 2002 article, enquire about the status of this project now ..

Parabolic Trough Array
Brighton, Colorado, USA
photo: US D.O.E.

Editor's Note: Just as on a small scale, hybrid engines stretch a gallon of gas, in the same manner a hybrid power plant can stretch its own supply of fossil fuel. In India, a huge new power station using hybrid systems is close to completing their financing and breaking ground in the sunny state of Rajasthan. This fossil fuel / solar hybrid will produce a whopping 140 megawatts of electric power, and 40 of those megawatts will be produced from a field of solar thermal parabolic troughs. Not as glamorous as photovoltaics, but still much more cost-effective, parabolic systems use mirrors to focus sunlight that in turn heats a thermal media (gas, steam) to drive a turbine generator. The project described below is projected to go in at about US $1 million per megawatt, which is competitive with conventional fuels. Read on...

India's power sector has a total installed capacity of approximately 102,000 MW of which 60% is coal-based, 25% hydro, and the balance gas and nuclear-based. Power shortages are estimated at about 11% of total energy and 15% of peak capacity requirements and are likely to increase in the coming years. In the next 10 years, another 10,000 MW of capacity is required. The bulk of capacity additions involve coal thermal stations supplemented by hydroelectric plant development. Coal-based power involve environmental concerns relating to emissions of suspended particulate matter (SPM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, methane and other gases. On the other hand, large hydroplants can lead to soil degradation and erosion, loss of forests, wildlife habitat and species diversity and most importantly, the displacement of people. To promote environmentally sound energy investments as well as help mitigate the acute shortfall in power supply, the Government of India is promoting the accelerated development of the country's renewable energy resources and has made it a priority thrust area under India's National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP).

The Indian government estimates that a potential of 50,000 MW of power capacity can be harnessed from new and renewable energy sources but due to relatively high development cost experienced in the past these were not tapped as aggressively as conventional sources. Nevertheless, development of alternate energy has been part of India's strategy for expanding energy supply and meeting decentralized energy needs of the rural sector. The program, considered one of the largest among developing countries, is administered through India's Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES), energy development agencies in the various States, and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA).

Parabolic Dish Array
Rajasthan, India
photo: UNESCO
Throughout the 1990's, India's private sector interest in renewable energy increased due to several factors: (i) India opened the power sector to private sector participation in 1991; (ii) tax incentives are now offered to developers of renewable energy systems; (iii) there has been a heightened awareness of the environmental benefits of renewable energy relative to conventional forms and of the short-gestation period for developing alternate energy schemes. Recognizing the opportunities afforded by private sector participation, the Indian Government revised its priorities in July 1993 by giving greater emphasis on promoting renewable energy technologies for power generation. To date, over 1,500 MW of windfarm capacity has been commissioned and about 1,423 MW capacity of small hydro installed. The sector's contribution to energy supply has grown from 0.4% of India's power capacity in 1995 to 3.4% by 2001.

India is located in the equatorial sun belt of the earth, thereby receiving abundant radiant energy from the sun. The India Meteorological Department maintains a nationwide network of radiation stations which measure solar radiation and also the daily duration of sunshine. In most parts of India, clear sunny weather is experienced 250 to 300 days a year. The annual global radiation varies from 1600 to 2200 kWh/sq.m. which is comparable with radiation received in the tropical and sub-tropical regions. The equivalent energy potential is about 6,000 million GWh of energy per year. The highest annual global radiation is received in Rajasthan and northern Gujarat. In Rajasthan, large areas of land are barren and sparsely populated, making these areas suitable as locations for large central power stations based on solar energy.

The main objectives of the project are these: (i) To demonstrate the operational viability of parabolic trough solar thermal power generation in India; (ii) support solar power technology development to help lead to a reduction in production cost; and (iii) help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) global emissions in the longer term. Specifically, operational viability will be demonstrated through operation of a solar thermal plant with commercial power sales and delivery arrangements with the grid. Technology development would be supported through technical assistance and training. The project would be pursued under The World Bank's Global Environment Fund (GEF) -- which has a leading program objective focused on climate change. This project is envisaged as the first step of a long term program for promoting solar thermal power in India that would lead to a phased deployment of similar systems in the country and possibly in other developing nations.

India supports development of both solar thermal and solar photovoltaics (PV) power generation. To demonstrate and commercialize solar thermal technology in India, MNES is promoting megawatt scale projects such as the proposed 35MW solar thermal plant in Rajasthan and is encouraging private sector projects by providing financial assistance from the Ministry.

One of the prime objectives of the demonstration project is to ensure capacity build-up through 'hands on' experience in the design, operation and management of such projects under actual field conditions. Involvement in the project of various players in the energy sector, such as local industries, the private construction and operations contractors, Rajasthan State Power Corporation Limited (RSPCL), Rajasthan State Electricity Board (RSEB), Rajasthan Energy Development Agency (REDA), Central Electricity Authority (CEA), MNES and others, will help to increase the capacity and capability of local technical expertise and further sustain the development of solar power in India in the longer term.

The project's sustainability will depend on to what extent the impact of the initial investment cost is mitigated, operating costs fully recovered, professional management introduced, and infrastructure and equipment support for operation and maintenance made accessible. Accordingly, while the solar thermal station will be state-owned, it will be operated during the initial five years under a management contract with the private sector; subsidy support will be limited to capital costs. Fuel input, power supply and other transactions would be on a commercial basis and backed up by acceptable marketable contracts. Staff selection and management would be based on business practices; the project site would be situated where basic infrastructure is well developed and engineering industries established.

Parabolic Trough Array
Tehachapi, California, USA
photo: US D.O.E.
This project is consistent with the World Bank's Global Environment Fund's operational strategy on climate change in support of long-term mitigation measures. In particular, the project will help reduce the costs of proven parabolic trough solar technology so as to enhance its commercial viability. This initiative is part of an anticipated multi-country solar thermal promotion program, the objectives of which will be to accelerate the process of cost reduction and demonstrate the technology in a wider range of climate and market conditions.

Demonstrating the solar plant's operational viability under Indian conditions is expected to result in follow-up investments by the private sector both in the manufacture of the solar field components and in larger solar stations within India.

Insights into local design and operating factors such as meteorological and grid conditions, and use of available back-up fuels, are expected to lead to its replicability under Indian conditions, opening up avenues for larger deployment of solar power plants in India and other countries with limited access to cheap competing fuels. Creation of demand for large scale production of solar facilities will in turn lead to reductions in costs of equipment supply and operation. It is also expected to revive and sustain the interest of the international business and scientific community in improving systems designs and operations of solar thermal plants.

The Project is expected to result in avoided annual emissions of 714,400 tons of CO2, or 17.9 million tons over the life of the project, relative to generation from a similar-sized coal-fired power station. The cost of carbon avoidance is estimated at $6.5 per ton.

The project involves: (i) Construction of a solar thermal/fossil-fuel hybrid power plant of about 140MW incorporating a parabolic trough solar thermal field of 35 MW to 40 MW; and (ii) Technical assistance package to support technology development and commercialization requirements.

Location of Rajasthan
Investment Component. The solar thermal/hybrid power station will comprise: (i) a solar field with a collection area of 219,000 square meters to support a 35MWe to 40MWe solar thermal plant; and (ii) a power block based on mature fossil fuel technology (i.e, regasified LNG). The proposed project will be sited at Mathania, near Jodhpur, Rajasthan in an arid region. In addition to high solar insulation levels (5.8 kWh/m2 daily average), the proposed site involves approximately 800,000 square meters of relatively level land with access to water resources and electric transmission facilities. The solar thermal/hybrid station will operate as a base load plant with an expected plant load factor of 80%. The final choice of the fossil-fired power block would be left to the bidders, subject to performance parameters set out in the tender specifications.

The design choice is an Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) involving the integrated operation of the parabolic trough solar plant with a combined cycle gas turbine using naphtha. Such a plant would consist of the solar field; a combined cycle power block involving two gas turbines each connected to a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and a steam turbine connected to both HRSG; and ancillary facilities and plant services such as fire protection, regasified liquefied natural gas supply and storage system, grid interconnection system, water supply and treatment systems, etc. A control building will house a central microprocessor control system that monitors and controls plant operations.

The success of the solar thermal/hybrid power plant as a demonstration project will determine if this technology is replicable in other parts of India. The project will provide technical assistance to ensure that adequate institutional and logistical support for the technology is available for future expansion of solar thermal power.

Specifically, funds will be made available for promoting commercialization of solar thermal technologies among potential investors; staff training and development of a local consultancy base; upgrading of test facilities; mproved collection and measurement of solar insolation data and other solar resource mapping activities; and development of pipeline investments.

The total cost of the investment component is estimated at US$ 201.5 million, including interest during construction, physical and price contingencies as well as duties and taxes. Of these costs, the cost of supplies (excluding contingencies) for the solar component including the steam generator amounts to $41 million, and that for the conventional power plant component is $72 million. The cost of the technical assistance component for promoting replication of the solar power technology is estimated at $4 million.

City Palace of Jaipur
Rajasthan, India

Investors Note: For more information on the solar thermal project in Rajasthan, India, please contact:

Mr. G. L. Somani, General Manager
Rajasthan State Power Corporation Ltd.
E-166, Yudhisthar Marg, C-Scheme, Jaipur, India
Telephone No.: (91-141) 384055
Fax No.: (91-141) 382759

About the Author: Gordon Feller is the CEO of Urban Age Institute (www.UrbanAge.org). During the past twenty years he has authored more than 500 magazine articles, journal articles or newspaper articles on the profound changes underway in politics, economics, and ecology - with a special emphasis on sustainable development. Gordon is the editor of Urban Age Magazine, a unique quarterly which serves as a global resource and which was founded in 1990. He can be reached at GordonFeller@UrbanAge.org and he is available for speaking to your organization about the issues raised in this and his other numerous articles published in EcoWorld.

How India can win the war on terror

author Colonel (Dr) Anil Athale (retd) is former joint director, war studies, ministry of defence, and co-ordinator of the Pune-based Initiative for Peace and Disarmament

Do you think these measures will succeed?

Frankly, no. The ultimate battle against Islamist terror has to be fought by the Muslims themselves, for they are its biggest potential victim. But that needs a religious reformation, a kind that took place in Europe in the 16th century or in India during the time of Buddha! But presently there is no sign of this happening and it is going to be long haul when Muslims move away from literalist interpretation of their faith and contextualise it.

On the other hand, Hindu society is so hopelessly divided that much terrorism will take place in India not because we are the number one enemy of Islam, which we are not, but because we are a soft target.

India possibly is already a laboratory for the jihadists, who test their tactics and weapons here before they use them against the West.

Using force against terrorists is like treating only the symptom. What about the root cause like the Babri demolition and the Gujarat genocide?

The demolition of the Babri mosque at Ram Janmabhoomi was wrong and against the law of the land. But obduracy of the fundamentalists in denying Hindus their holy place is equally wrong. I am an agnostic but do believe that others who have faith have equal right to their belief. It is not that a compromise had not been worked out in similar cases. The case of the Krishna temple in Mathura is similar so is the case of the Somnath temple.

Making an issue of an obscure mosque in Faizabad was the original sin. In a plural society both the majority and minority have an obligation to respect each other's beliefs, this cannot be a one-sided affair. Many sensible people on both sides tried to find a solution to the issue, but politicians on both sides, interested in dividing society, thwarted all attempts.

This issue has been further vitiated by the 'secularists', who in league with the fundamentalists first disputed the authenticity of Hindu's historical memory of Ayodhya being the birthplace of Ram. The ill logic has been extended further when many question the historicity of Ram and the Ramayan. There is glaring asymmetry here. All Hindu beliefs and history are sought to be rubbished on ground of lack of 'evidence'. It is this moronic approach that has turned even the liberal, the tolerant and the agnostics against the 'sickularists' and their fellow travelers.

The Gujarat riots of 2002 were indeed horrendous and a blot on the nation. But it cannot be forgotten that the Godhra incident was a grave provocation. In 1969, when the 'secularists' were in power, worse riots had taken place in Gujarat. The question is if Godhra had not happened, would the Gujarat riots have taken place? A corollary to that is that even today, in any state, if a Godhra-like incident takes place, equally severe repercussions would occur. This would happen despite the best efforts of the police or army. I have personal experience of dealing successfully with riots during my army career. But we all, who have this experience, agreed that if there is grave provocation and riots spread to rural areas, no army or police can control it.

In addition, some NGOs and individuals, with vested monetary (foreign funds) interests have kept alive the memory of those riots. They have falsely created the brand 'Gujarat genocide' by harping on the 2,000 killed when the (secular) central government puts the figure at 800.

The Gujarat riots or the Babri issue are not the root causes, these are mere symptoms. The root causes are population explosion, lack of economic opportunity, lack of education and separatism. Added to this is the fact that religious reformation in all the communities, has bypassed north India. Political interest in dividing society on the bases of caste and creed and foreign vested interests to destabilise India complete the circle of root causes.

We have in the past held talks with the Nagas, Mizos and sundry groups. Why not with the Islamists?

There are two types of internal conflicts, one is a 'realist' conflict that is fought for material objectives, for instance independence or separate state (the Bodos). Here since the goal is material and tangible, it is possible to negotiate and compromise. It is thus possible to negotiate with Kashmir separatists, but not with the jihadists.

The second type of threats that we face, namely Islamists and Naxalites, are ideological conflicts. Naxalites want to overthrow the entire system and replace it with one party Communist rule (on lines of Stalin or Mao). Can a democratic State negotiate its own destruction? Similarly, the Islamist goal is the Islamisation of India and establishment of Sharia rule. No negotiations are possible with such groups.

We must take the literature found with Students Islamic Movement of India activists that talks of this goal seriously. Hitler's [Images] Mein Kampf was not taken seriously and the world paid a terrible price for it.

The Islamist terrorists have another advantage. Since they cloak themselves in religious idiom, they draw support of the average Muslim easily.

How do you fight terrorism? Or should we just be fatalistic and wait for the next attack?


It is necessary for the whole nation, not just the government, to fight this menace. If left unchecked it has the potential to derail our economy and destroy our freedom and democracy. The measures to be taken can be divided into long term and short term measure.

The long term measures will entail overhaul of our educational system so that separatists and extremists do not breed more terrorists taking advantage of constitutional guarantees. Our Constitution gives freedom to the minorities to establish institutes to preserve their culture and language. But that does not mean we permit or encourage separatism under this guise.

As a first step we must have a uniform curriculum, compulsory for all schools that must teach the students the essence of all the religions. Thus a child in a madarassa or a Hindu pathshala must undergo a course that teaches him about Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Sikhism and Buddhism.

We have to enforce pluralism through understanding at that very crucial stage of child's upbringing. Many a misconception about different faiths is born out this ignorance. Any institution that is not prepared to accept this should not be permitted to operate.

It will take many, many years for the effects to be felt, but we must take this step to nip in the bud the menace of religion-based hatred and terrorism. To deal with complaints of discrimination we must have a structure with powers to punish and redress.

As to short term measures, there is a need to enact a law that deals with not just terrorists but also their supporters and sympathisers. The present laws are wholly inadequate. The argument that a terrorism law would not stop terror acts is infantile and moronic and is political cynicism at its worst. We have laws to deal with murder, but that has not stopped murders from taking place, does that mean we should have no criminal law?

If a tough law that makes all those who help, support, conceal terrorists is in place, it will certainly remove the support base of the terrorists and make it difficult for them to operate. The US, UK, Indonesia and Pakistan all have anti-terrorism laws. It is an irony that India, one of the worst sufferers, does not have a law to deal with this menace that is unlike a normal crime in many ways.

An effective passive measure to fight terrorism would be to form a country wide grid of information by co-opting civil society organisations like mohalla committees, gram panchayats, housing societies etc. These organisations should be given the responsibility to monitor their areas for suspicious activities and be held accountable. To boost their prestige and effectiveness they must be consulted by the police in matters of arrest, detention and bail.

But passive measures alone will never suffice. There are several pro-active and aggressive measures that have to be taken, mostly covert, within and outside the country. But these recommendations/measures are not fit for public discussion and debate and will remain unsaid. Suffice it to say that India will have to show its iron fist to recalcitrant neighbours.

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All you want to know about terrorism in India

After the Jaipur terror attacks on May 13, we saw the routine that happens after every attack. There were VIP visits, compensation announced to the victims, politicians spoke of 'zero tolerance', television channels held the usual debates, the police announced imminent breakthroughs. Soon everything is forgotten, till the next terror attack. At which time, I am sure the same sequence will be repeated.

I have been a student of insurgency and terrorism for 24 years. At social gatherings when asked what I do for a living, my answer invariably provokes a flurry of questions, much to the annoyance of my better half (who glares and hints that I should stop holding forth on my pet topic and not 'spoil' the party). Here is my attempt to answer some of those frequently asked questions.

Why are attacks by Islamic groups called Islamist terrorism? Other terror groups like the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) or the IRA (Irish Republican Army) have Hindus or Christians but are not called Hindu or Christian terrorists?

It is undoubtedly true that there are other terrorists as well, for instance the Naxalites or Maoists. The reason why the adjective 'Islamists' is used is that no other terror group invokes religious sanction or quotes religious texts to justify their acts. In fact, the Tamil Tigers has Hindus as well as Christians (their spokesperson for many years was Anton Balasingham, a Christian). Neither has the IRA nor Tamil Tigers ever quoted any religious scriptures to justify their actions, the Islamists have and continue to do so. The link between religious places and schools to these acts, is also well established.

Finally, the Islamist terrorists themselves have time and again openly admitted the religious nature of their ultimate goal -- Islamisation. It would be dishonest if this reality is ignored.

What about State terrorism?

It is true that the State also uses force to deal with revolts and violence and against criminals. But in a democracy with a judiciary and rule of law, the use of force by the State is accountable and has to be within the bounds of law. At times individuals do transgress those limits, but those are aberrations. Use of force by a State to enforce law cannot be equated with State terrorism, unless that State has a policy of genocide or is dictatorial like Hitler's [Images] Germany [Images] or Stalin's Soviet Union.

Unfortunately social activists and champions of human rights forget that it is the legitimate function of the State to use force. If the State abdicates this responsibility then we are inviting anarchy and in words of Hobbes, a 16th century English philosopher, a situation of war of every one against every one and human life 'nasty, brutish and short.'

You are biased, what about the terrorism of the Shiv Sena, Bajrang Dal etc?

These are indeed organisations that believe in violent means and must be dealt under the law. But at worst, these are extremists and militants, like militant trade unions for example. The shallow coverage by the media has created the confusion about definition of terrorism and who is a terrorist. There is tendency to lump together terms like militants, insurgents, extremists, fundamentalists and terrorists.

While all the variety of people fighting for some cause or other may at times indulge in terrorism, a terrorist is one whose primary aim is to cause maximum destruction. In that sense strictly speaking, when a Kashmiri extremist attacks a soldier, it is wrong to call it a terrorist attack, it is part of an insurgency. We must be clear about this difference.

A terrorist is an individual who carries out a terrorist act. A terrorist act is one in which totally unconnected persons are targeted and killed. Terrorism is random violence that makes no distinction between people and promotes fear. It is no accident that in the Jaipur attack as well as elsewhere, many Muslims lost their lives.

It is a fallacy to claim that everything is fair in love and war. Even in war there are written and unwritten rules. The terrorists do not follow them. For instance in war, civilians are not deliberately targeted (they still die as collateral damage) while terrorists, for instance in Beslan in Russia [Images] chose a school or local trains in Mumbai.

While there are groups and organisations that are militant, fundamentalist and violence prone, they have not yet graduated to earn the 'terrorist' tag. If the State fails to curb minority terrorism then the majority may well begin to have its own terrorist organisations.

If we use violence against terrorists then are we not betraying our Gandhian legacy?

Gandhian methods of non-violent struggle were successful against the British colonialists. But the British were a civilised people. British liberals like Edmund Burke were in favour of Indian independence as early as in 1773 (Burke's speeches in the British parliament on the Regulating Act). To assume universality of success of these methods for all times to come is false.

Did the non-violent Jews survive Hitler? Closer home, in Gandhi's lifetime itself, in October 1947, it was force that saved the Kashmir valley from Pakistani-backed raiders. Even more telling, the same non-violent movement in the Portuguese colony of Goa [Images], failed in 1956-1957. Goa was liberated by force in 1961.

An oft quoted Gandhian phrase is that if all were to follow an eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth, then the world would go blind. The counter to that is that if only some follow this and others don't then it is the non-violent who would go blind while the rogues will rule the world.

U.S., China lead way in tapping wind power

asr note:
- It seems China Wind-energy generation will reach 20 Gigawattt ( 20,000 MW) by 2010
- It seems US may have litttle above 20 GW by 2010

# Texas energy group launch bid to develop "renewable energy superhighway"
# Texas given preliminary approval for a $4.9 billion plan to build new power lines
# Wind energy production in China set to overtake the U.S. experts say

Those new lines, dubbed by Oncor as a "renewable energy superhighway," will accommodate about 18,500 megawatts of wind generation by 2012-- enough energy to power 4 million homes.

It is said to be the largest investment in clean, renewable energy in U.S. history. Texas citizens will have to assist with the plan's construction; paying an extra $3 to $4 per month on their bills for the next few years.

The wind energy industry has benefited from the support of billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, who is planning to build the world's largest wind farm on about 200,000 acres in the Texas Panhandle.

When completed, his 2,700 turbines will be capable of producing enough electricity to power 1.3 million homes.

But the Chinese energy revolution has been quietly gaining strength, observers say.

Like their American counterparts, Chinese tycoons are increasingly directing their investment into renewable power.

Zhu Yuguo, ranks at 102 on the Forbes China Rich List, with a personal fortune of 5.71 billion Yuan and has invested heavily in the wind power industry.

Steve Sawyer of the Global Wind Energy Council said: "China's wind energy market is unrecognizable from two years ago."

"It is huge, huge, huge. But it is not realized yet in the outside world," Sawyer said in an interview with London's Guardian newspaper.

China's wind generation has increased by more than 100 percent per year since 2005 and 20 per cent of the power supply to the venues of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games will come from wind generators, according to the official state agency, Xinhua.

It was initially hoped the country would generate 5 gigawatts of wind by 2010, but that goal was met three years early in 2007. The 2010 goal has now been revised to 10 gigawatts but experts say this could well hit 20 gigawatts.

The Guanting Wind Farm in Beijing has installed capacity of 64.5 megawatts and has supplied 35 million kilowatts of electricity to Beijing so far.

The wind farm is estimated to supply 100 million KWH per year to Beijing, or 300,000 KWH per day, enough to satisfy the consumption of 100,000 households.

However, China still relies heavily on using coal, which supplies 70 per cent of China's energy needs.
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Pickens talks about alternative energy
# T. Boone Pickens on U.S. energy plan: "We have not had a plan in 40 years"
# Oilman calls for more use of wind power, switch to natural gas to power vehicles
# Pickens: 8 million natural gas vehicles worldwide; only 142,000 of them in U.S.
# Pickens: "We're spending $700 billion a year on foreign oil"

The Energy Department now reports that with the current technology that the United States has access to 1,744 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That's a lot. And Americans consume roughly 23 trillion cubic feet each and every year. At that rate, we have enough natural gas to satisfy the demand for the next 75 years. Conceivably, more natural gas could become available with technological advances and discovery.

- Those two resources have to be developed.
a) So when you develop the wind,
b) you can then remove natural gas from power generation and put it into a transportation fuel market.
We can do that; and is it easy? Almost easy. There have to be some things, some hurdles to clear. But when you take that natural gas out of power generation and put it into transportation fuel, that's 22 percent of that 23 trillion. That amount, you put into transportation would reduce our imports by 38 percent.

Wind Energy

IEA study underlines essential role for wind energy in combating climate change:

Each County status on Wind energy -- click on Region to see each country installed capacity, future, and government incentives ( and strings ).
Global Wind 2007 report -- click on each link for details
Top 10 installed capacity to date , year 2007

Annual Capacity in 2012
- see Asia it will be almost half/half china and India


6 June 2008.
The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) welcomed a new study released today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which shows that renewable energy, and particularly wind energy, must dominate the electricity generation sector in a sustainable energy future.

“For the first time, the IEA has clearly acknowledged that wind power is now a mainstream energy technology, and the central role it must play in combating climate change”, said Steve Sawyer, GWEC’s Secretary General.

The BLUE scenario forecasts that wind energy will produce over 5,000 TWh of electricity per year by 2050, accounting for up to 17% of global power production. Over one third of the resulting CO2 savings will be achieved in China and India.
______________________________________________

IN US
It's worth stating what the PTC (Production Tax Credit) is: 1.5 cents/kWh for the first 10 years of operation.
_________________________________________________
WIND ENERGY BASICS

Example: A 10-kW wind turbine can generate about 10,000 kWh annually at a site with wind speeds averaging 12 miles per hour, or about enough to power a typical household. A 5-MW turbine can produce more than 15 million kWh in a year--enough to power more than 1, 400 households.
asr: 5 MW -> 5000 KW -> generates ( x 1000 x 2.8 ) 15,000,000 KWhours
- like operating 1000 hours in a year that is 3 hours/day x 365 days
- since high capacity 5-MW have big genrator they generate x 2.8 than small geneator , still operating 3 hours/day

The average U.S. household consumes about 10,000 kWh of electricity each year.


A 250-kW turbine installed at the elementary school in Spirit Lake, Iowa, provides an average of 350,000 kWh of electricity per year

An average U.S. household uses about 10,655 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity each year. One megawatt of wind energy can generate from 2.4 to more than 3 million kWh annually.
( asr: 1 MW -> 1000 KW -> generatges 1000 hours/year x 2.5 -> 2,500,000 KWh )
Therefore, a megawatt of wind generates about as much electricity as 225 to 300 households use.


Generally, an annual average wind speed greater than four meters per second (m/s) (9 mph) is required for small wind electric turbines (less wind is required for water-pumping operations). Utility-scale wind power plants require minimum average wind speeds of 6 m/s (13 mph )

The power available in the wind is proportional to the cube of its speed, which means that doubling the wind speed increases the available power by a factor of eight. Thus, a turbine operating at a site with an average wind speed of 12 mph could in theory generate about 33% more electricity than one at an 11-mph site, because the cube of 12 (1,768) is 33% larger than the cube of 11 (1,331). (In the real world, the turbine will not produce quite that much more electricity, but it will still generate much more than the 9% difference in wind speed.) The important thing to understand is that what seems like a small difference in wind speed can mean a large difference in available energy and in electricity produced, and therefore, a large difference in the cost of the electricity generated. Also, there is little energy to be harvested at very low wind speeds (6-mph winds contain less than one-eighth the energy of 12-mph winds).
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Mesa Power LLP, a company created by T. Boone Pickens, has placed an order with General Electric to purchase 667, 1.5 megawatt wind turbines for the worlds largest wind farm, capable of generating 1,000 megawatts, nameplate, of electricity, enough to power more than 300,000 average U.S. homes
( asr: 1000 MW -> 300,000 homes like 1 MW -> 300 homes
- each home annual avg: 10,000 KWh , that is 1000 KW hours /month -> 30 Kwh /day)

When all the phases of the project are completed it will become the world's largest wind energy project, with more than 4,000 megawatts, nameplate, of installed capacity. When completed, projected to be in 2014, the wind farm will be five times as big as the nation's current largest wind power project, now producing 736 megawatts

Pickens said he expects that first phase of the project will cost about $2 billion. When complete, the Pampa Wind Project will cover some 400,000 acres in the Texas Panhandle


PTC
It's worth stating what the PTC (Production Tax Credit) is: 1.5 cents/kWh for the first 10 years of operation.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Indian Govt. Initiatives in Solar

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is the nodal Ministry of the Government of India for all matters relating to new and renewable energy. The broad aim of the Ministry is to develop and deploy

New & Renewable Energy: Estimated potential and cumulative achievements as on 31.03.2008


BENGALURU, India — In a country where millions of people worship the sun, the government has launched a "National Mission on Solar Energy" that seeks to tie India's economic development to energy efficiency

We must pioneer a graduated shift from economic activity based on fossil fuels to one based on non-fossil fuels and from reliance on non-renewable and depleting sources of energy to renewable sources of energy," said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. "The sun occupies a center stage, as it should, being literally the original source of all energy."

Singh said India seeks "to develop solar energy as a source of abundant energy to power our economy and to transform the lives of our people
."

The ministry is seeking to generate at least 10 percent of India's power from solar energy over the next several years.


With solar photo voltaic (PV) system the initial investment is equivalent of about 18-20 crores for one MW of generating capacity, nearly five times of conventional power. SWH is a feasible option but here also cost factor is involved .so the cost factor is one of the reason for not taking off using of solar energy.

According to Ministry of New and Renewable Resources (MNRR) “100 liters of solar water heating system can replace an electric unit in a residence and save over 1500 units of power every year and 1000 such units save peak load demand of about 1MW. This is apart from environmental benefit preventing 1.5 tonnes of Co2 emissions a year. But family has to spend 25,000 to install system. A comparable electrical system cost a fifth of that price which is preferred option even if initial cost of a solar water heating system could be recovered in three years.


The government makes laws to make it mandatory for SWH in wide category of buildings hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, hostels and individual buildings of more than 150 sq meter plinth area, in railway station and airports. And there is an income tax benefits for using solar water heaters. Even though Government of India and states have made laws, there is low response because of lack of awareness and the high initial costs of the equipments for tapping solar energ

Solar photo voltaic (PV) systems In India

Roth and Rau, a Germany-based solar cell manufacturing solutions provider, sees India emerging as the fourth largest generator of solar energy and a key driver of its global business in the coming years.

"Although still a small market, India is catching up fast with world majors in solar energy generation," Thomas Hengst, vice-president of Roth and Rau, said while speaking about his group's plans for India in this clean energy source.

"Roth and Rau is expecting orders worth as much as 80 million euros from India in 2008 from two million euros at present," Hengst told IANS.

India still is not among the world's top 10 solar energy generators. But at the current pace of 20 percent annual growth, India can emerge as the fourth largest generator of solar energy after Germany, Japan and China in the coming years .

The daily average solar energy incident over India varies from 4-7 kWh per square metres, depending upon the location,

The estimated unit cost of electricity from grid connected solar energy plant is estimated at Rs.12-15 per unit, which is much higher compared to power available from other renewable energy sources like wind and biomass.

So far, around 1.4 million solar photovoltaic systems aggregating to about 110 MW peak solar photovoltaic module capacity have been installed in the country.

Signet Solar : solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer

Signet Solar : solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer

asr take:
a) signet is just PV manufacturer taking advantage of Applied Material's PV film machines instead of custom , same thing can be done by everybody else in the world and are doing it.
b) When these people say grid parity is 1/3 , in reality it may be 1/4 to 1/5


- Signet Solar’s choice of Applied Materials is significant. Most existing solar module makers design and build their own proprietary manufacturing systems. Applied Materials’ entry into the market removes a major barrier to entry for newcomers such as Signet who can now purchase world-class PV manufacturing equipment at a lower cost than building their own.

- Signet will go head-to-head against larger, better funded publicly traded PV module manufacturers such as Sharp Solar, Kyocera, SunPower, FirstSolar, Suntech, and dozens of others. The field is becoming more crowded by the day. On Friday, two new Chinese solar cell module makers filed for U.S. IPOs.

A team of semiconductor industry veterans today announced the launch of Signet Solar, a solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer that hopes to disrupt the fast growing solar industry by significantly reducing the manufacturing costs of solar panels.

The company will target large projects such as solar farms, commercial installations, building-integrated photovoltaics, and remote habitation.

The company is headquartered in Palo Alto, Calif., although its R&D operations and first manufacturing plant will be based in Dresden, Germany — in order to access the German and European markets, and to take advantage of Germany’s large talent pool in solar and optical engineering.

The company plans to enter production in Dresden by mid-2008 with a fully-integrated thin film silicon solar PV module production line from Applied Materials. The plant’s initial capacity will be 20 megawatts (MW) of solar modules per year, with plans to expand the capacity to 60 MW by the end of 2009.

The company is planning to build additional manufacturing plants elsewhere in the world including Asia, although it declined to provide exact locations or a timeline. However, the company did tell VentureBeat it’s aiming to build its annual manufacturing capacity to over one gigawatt within ten years.



Solar Market Booming, but Crowded

Navigant ChartThe market for PV modules, which go into making solar panels installed on homes, commercial buildings and solar power power plants, has grown at a compound annual rate of 35 percent over the last 30 years (click on thumbnail at left to view chart), according to a report published April 12 by market researcher Navigant Consulting (access the PDF file of the report here). Growth has accelerated in recent years. Navigant says global 2006 shipments reached nearly two gigawatts, and are expected to grow to 14.3 GW by 2010.

Signet will go head-to-head against larger, better funded publicly traded PV module manufacturers such as Sharp Solar, Kyocera, SunPower, FirstSolar, Suntech, and dozens of others. The field is becoming more crowded by the day. On Friday, two new Chinese solar cell module makers filed for U.S. IPOs.

The Race for Grid Parity

Although the solar market has grown dramatically over the last few years, much of this growth has been driven by government subsidies in places such as Germany, Japan, Spain and California. Without government subsidies, photovoltaic power is not yet a cost-effective alternative to traditional coal-powered electric plants.

Solar cell manufacturers are waging a battle against time and each other to drive costs lower to compete against other electric generation sources, and so they can open up their products to new markets and applications.

The holy grail of the solar industry is what’s called “grid parity,” a term that refers to the day when consumers can generate their own solar electric power at the same cost as purchasing it from their local utility. Signet tells VentureBeat the average worldwide cost of electricity is currently around 10-12 cents per kilowatt hour (kw/h), whereas unsubsidized solar currently runs around 25-30 cents per kw/h.

To succeed without government subsidies, the solar industry must achieve grid parity.

Most solar manufacturers have product roadmaps to achieve grid parity within the next few years. Once achieved and exceeded, large scale solar plants are likely to spring up around the world.

Signet Solar says the price of its modules will reach grid parity by 2010 at a manufacturing cost that will provide it 35 percent gross margins.

Much of Signet Solar’s manufacturing efficiencies will stem from its use of Applied Materials’ fab equipment. Applied Materials, long the world’s largest maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, entered the solar fabrication market in 2006 with an aggressive solar strategy. Signet chief executive Dr. Rajeeva Lahri says his company wouldn’t be able to enter the market so quickly and at such low cost without Applied Materials.

Most existing solar module manufacturers are using custom-designed equipment, and they all face enormous capital equipment investments to continually improve their productivity and efficiencies. Lahri believes that by relying on the Applied Materials platform, he will always have the access to latest generation technology.


Signet will also compete against a growing number of recent startups leveraging the same solar cell fabrication equipment from Applied Materials. In March, Applied Materials announced two customer deals, one with Moser Baer India Limited in India, and the other with T-Solar Global S.A. of Spain. Last month, Applied Materials announced that it would also supply production lines to Sunfilm, a startup based in Munich, Germany.

Lahri says Signet can distinguish itself through its proprietary expertise in manufacturing and product design, much in the same way customers of Applied Materials’ traditional semiconductor manufacturing equipment differentiated their offerings for the last two decades.

The Applied Materials equipment produces large solar modules, which, at 5.7 square meters in surface area, are three to four times larger than conventional modules from competitors. The larger form factor reduces manufacturing and installation costs.

Importantly, Applied Materials’ thin film manufacturing process utilizes only one percent of the silicon required by many competitors, says Lahri. The lower silicon requirements will provide the Applied Materials fabs an important advantage over other manufacturers who require more silicon in the manufacture of their modules.

Silicon prices have skyrocketed over the past few years, mainly because of the growing demand from the solar module makers. For Signet and others who rely upon the Applied Materials fabs, the future pricing of silicon becomes less important.

The company declined to disclose exact funding levels, but Lahri says it already completed a first tranche of a Series A funding round for between $5 million and $10 million from private angel investors he declined to name. Lahri says the company plans to complete the series A in the July timeframe with total funding “in the teens.” He says that tranche will likely include existing investors, vcs, and strategic partners.

Will the IPO Window Close on Signet Solar?

Although Signet Solar’s strategy appears well conceived, the company still faces significant risks.

Over the last two years, many of Signet’s competitors, such as Suntech, SunPower, FirstSolar and others have funded their expansion by tapping the favorable valuations of the public equity market. Yet they all had revenue at the time of their IPO and most were either profitable or near profitable. Signet Solar probably won’t be invited to the IPO party until 2009 at the earliest.

With Signet’s late start to market, it remains to be seen how quickly the company can scale its manufacturing without significant additional capital. If the IPO window closes before its IPO, then Signet may be denied the funding it requires to complete its business plan.

The company also faces the risk that its better funded competitors making a switch to Applied Materials’ solar fabs, or to other competitive innovations likely coming from other semiconductor manufacturing equipment vendors. Once everyone is using equivalent best of breed technology, the market quickly deteriorates to commodity status in which all module vendors face declining margins and zero pricing power.

SolarBuzz, a solar industry research group, said there are initial signs competitive pressures may soon cause solar module prices to decline. This is good for consumers, but only good for producers as long as they can continue to reduce manufacturing costs.

An additional, though potentially less threatening risk, is that manufacturers of raw silicon flood the market with too much silicon. Most of the top silicon suppliers have announced plans to increase capacity. This build-out may well be met with a bust within two or three years if oversupply causes raw silicon prices to plummet. The declining prices would then disproportionately benefit Signet’s competitors by lowering their manufacturing costs. Many of these competitors believe they can reach grid parity even if the current historically high silicon prices persist.