VP review

Timaru69, London ex New Zealand

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/public/review/www.tradertech.com?page=3

2007-12-06

Ok not too sure where to start on this one but will give you my experience.

Initially purchased VP software in 2004 after asking a lot of questions and doing as much research as I could based on the information I gather. The sales tactics utilised at the time by the company where typical of most hard sell tactics you would find at an estate agents or a car sales yard.

Initially I was very sceptical but took the plunge and paid for 69 mkts at around $8,000.

I then proceeded to spend a lot of time forward testing various strategies includingthe "when the blue crosses the black line" (my results indicated breakeven after about six months)

After about 12 months I concluded the following

1. VP is no good for daytrading, I know lot's of people are trying to use it for FX daytrading I believe that in the long run their systems will fail. Using indicators based on EOD data is not a clever way to trade IMHO. This is no fault of the software only the people using the software for something that it wasn't designed for.

2. As VP uses EOD data for it's calculations of it's indicators then it's follows that your style of trading is going to be swing and or position trading. If you don't want to do this then don't buy the software.

3. It would then follow that you need good money management rules and the discipline to follow those rules. This is where nearly all people fail because they have neither, once again this is not a problem with the software.

4. As we are looking at daily data then it also follows that signals are going to be less frequent therefore it makes sense to follow more than one market, it also makes sense to diversify the market selection so you aren't putting all of your eggs into one basket. Here is an example market portfolio

10 yr T Note
Soybean Complex (Soybean/Soymeal/Oil)
Corn
Lean Hog
Live Cattle
GBP FX
AUD FX
S&P Emini
Light Crude or Emini Light Crude
Sugar No.11
Cotton
Orange Juice
Gold

Armed with the above I then spent a good 18 months (in my spare time) working on various systems, backtesting and forward testing them before I settled on one that I am confident works across all VP markets.
(asr: this 18 months back testing is just to test various VP systems of he coded , NON-VP systems are not in this test , this is what this guy mean )

5. So now we have a piece of software that utilises EOD to give us signals , we have a target set of markets, we have a money management plan (and hopefully the discipline to follow it) all we need now is some money to trade, and here is the crux of the matter. I believe that in order to trade a diversified set of markets using an EOD system you need as a minimum $100,000. I am sure that plenty will disagree with me but the simple fact is that you need this account size to be able to trade a diversified range of markets while still maintaining good money mgmt. Also consider that if a VP package costs $3k to $18k then that also needs to factored in as a cost of trading, this cost of trading should not in turn wipe out a large % of your account. A good example of this a guy I know who wanted to spend $3k on VP forex mkts but he only had a $3k account to trade. Sorry but no software is going to make you profitable on such a small capital base.

My system that utilises some of the VP indicators (not the neural index) has returned 160% on a $100k account risking a max of $3,000 a trade (3% starting account size). Strike rate is about 50% with a R:R of between 2.5 to 3:1. 90 trades to date over a 9 month timeframe

I have tried to replicate the VP indicators I use and to date have had no success. I have come to admit that there is value to be had. I have started looking at individual stocks and was considering adding some to my portfolio as the system I use appears to work well on stocks.

In my view the Software can be used to make good returns but it takes more than just waiting for a blue line to cross a black, you need all of the above points, be prepared to to a lot work and research and above all strong money management and the discipline to stick your rules. People are labelling it a "scam" because they have no knowledge of what the markets are about and they are blinded by what they want to believe rather than what is.

The software is pricey and somewhat expensive for what it is and requires a lot of work , it is not a standalone trading system but a tool.

My rating of 3 is given based the fact that the software is good but it is expensive and is not for a new trader with no experience of the markets.

Good Luck

VP back testing

Hi all,
I just started reading this thread last night, and thought I would join. My partner and I have been trading Forex with Vantage Point for the past year with a tremendous success, and we have been using a beta version of 7.0 for about a month.

Here are my notes on the new indicators and the improved performance.

There is a new long term indicator to go with the short and medium term indicators. Also the strength indicator was changed to be a predicted very short (3 day) term indicator that follows the neural index exactly. (so if you use the 6.4 strength indicator in your trading, then be advised it will now respond differently) Both of the new predicted average indicators work well with perfect order strategies. There are three new momentum indicators, each predicted one day ahead. They work great, but for some reason, they are not yet available for export so back testing with the momentum indicators has to be done manually. They did change the history export to provide 5 years of back data, but beware you can slow everything to standstill if you try to open too many history files at once.

The big news is that they increased the number of markets that are used for intermarket prediction from 9 to 25 and now calculate using the midpoint between the high and the low for the day rather than the close of the day(which is meaningless in the forex market.) I did an accuracy test on the all the FOREX markets for the past 2 years and got an overall accuracy of 81.6% for all forex markets combined. (6.4 gives 74.3% by the same metric)

As for trading strategies, we found that the best way to use Vantage Point is to match the VP indicators (or any combination of indicators) with either a trade entrance, exit, or stop loss strategy for a given currency pair. Markets change, VP indicators do not, so find a setup that has worked very well for at least six months (12 months is better) with a certain currency pair and use it as long as it performs to a level acceptable to you. (We look for trade strategies that give a 10/1 win loss ratio (WLR = Pips won/Pips Lost) and only trade strategies with better than a 5/1 WLR.

I am posting one of our strategies here that we published elsewhere. I developed it to see if I could find a strategy that would take advantage of the new stochastice indicator. In this case, I use the stochastics predicted one day ahead as an advance notice of over bought or over sold, I use it as an exit strategy in a range trading market.

If you decide to try this strategy, please realize that I developed it for the EURCHF market only, and every rule in the strategy was added to maximize the WLR. I will only trade this on the EURCHF, and I will discard or modify it when it falls below a 12 month 5/1 WLR.

EURCHF
1 .Enter at the “close” price when the “Predicted Medium Term Difference” crosses zero in the direction of the trade, and when the “Predicted Stochastic” is between 30-60 for long and 40-70 for short.
2. Set and Reset the stop loss daily to right at the “Predicted Next Day High” or “Low” (whichever is applicable).
3. Exit at the “close” price when the “Predicted Stochastic” moves above 70 for long or below 30 for short or when either the “Predicted Next Day High” or the “Predicted Next Day Low” predicts the next day in a direction against the trade

Here are the 12 month statistics on it. Please note this trade setup only occured 8 times in 12 months.

--
The trade calls for the PStoch not the trigger. See the attachment. (This was the one time when two trades occured close enough in time to see them on the same chart.)


--------------


Interesting you should ask this. I read a very good book called getting started in technical analysis by Jack D. Schwager and he has you back testing any strategy back two years over more than one market to account for market changes.

I spent six months and counless hours testing vantage point solutions with this standard of testing, and I did not find any of the types of high performance trades I knew vantage point was capable of producing. What I finally realized was that since vantage point is actively predicting the market using neural networks and inter market analysis, the indicators should be treated differently than normal passive indicators that react to price alone.

What I have found is that each vantage point indicator best predicts markets that have a certain voulatility. Markets are always changing. Think of each vantage point indicator as having a "sweet spot". When a given changing market slides past the "sweet spot" of a vantage point indicator, then that vantage point indicator starts predicting the market with what sometimes appears to be uncanny accuracy.

Once I realized this, I started testing for it, and I found that there were lots of trading scinarios that were amazingly accurate for 9 to 18 months(sometimes more) and then market conditions would gradually change and they would lose their effectiveness. Often in the middle of the cycle there can be a huge win/loss ratio(WLR). So we started looking for trade scinarios with a 6 to 12 month trading record of better than 10/1 (WLR)(total pips won/total pips lost) and then we trade these scinarios assuming that they will still be effective for a while, but expect them to slowly lose their effectivness.

We are looking to keep our actual trading above 5/1. The trade I showed earlier is at >18/1 and is one of our current trades. You are only limited by your imagination and your ingenuity to match vantage point indicators (single or combined) to a market. What you are looking for are indicators that best predict the three components you need for a trade, namely the entry, exit and daily stop loss (or profit protection). You can use different indicators or combinations of indicators for each trade component.

For my back testing, I enter the trade at the historical close of day price and play the scinario out. for those who have never done back testing you simply play act the trade as you would have had you recieved the daily vantage point data real time. It is best to program the backtesting using excel or something similar to get an unbiased answer, but you can do it by hand. Beware, if you do it by hand, you have to be brutally honest in writing down the trades or you will end up with falsly good data and find that out when you start trading the scinario.

-----------------
this is form VP site
Predicted MACD is another way of using moving averages to predict market changes. Predicted MACD charts the difference between two predicted exponential moving averages and uses another exponential moving average of the MACD as a trigger for trading signals.

Predicted MACD (PMACD) predicts the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) one day ahead. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day exponential moving average from a 10-day exponential moving average. MACD Trigger (Trigger) predicts the MACD trigger one day ahead. The MACD trigger is calculated as a 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD. When the Predicted MACD line crosses below the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. When the Predicted MACD line crosses above the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. Another crossover indicator occurs when the Predicted MACD crosses above or below the zero line. Predicted MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold detector when it pulls away from the Trigger, suggesting the price of the market may be due for a correction that will bring the averages back together. Predicted MACD can also be used to spot underlying strength or weakness when its movement diverges from the movement of prices.

Flash Charting

Candlestick Char
Combination Chart -- this uses eval component
Updating chart using updateChartXML() method
Client Side JavaScript Charting
Simple example

CTrader

MinGW ("Minimalistic GNU for Windows") is a command-line C/C++ compiler
- Install this worked exactly mentioned at this url http://csjava.occ.cccd.edu/~gilberts/mingw/
- http://gd.tuwien.ac.at/gnu/mingw/?fisel=mM -- installed MinGW-5.0.0.exe from this url
- path was set by itself after install else do it : PATH=C:\MinGW\bin;

modifications to code
a) removed last line str SUB from files
b) main() return int instead void , changed exit(0) to return 0; in main
c) add "int" to const MAXT = 1500;" in trdsim2.cpp
d) compilation: g++ examp1.cpp trdsim2.cpp -o a.exe

C++ tutorial

Tripple EMA crossover

The following results are using Predicted Tripple EMA crossover:

- stopLoss_Padding=15 gave better win/loss=3 than with value 20 win/loss= 1.5 this is for COPPER.
- crossover_padding 5 vs. 8 no difference in win/loss ratio
a) Need to imporve win/loss to atleast 4/1
b) may be we need to run program in 2 phases, phase 1 gives points for different criteria ( main criteria like EMA crossover, nural index, MACD etc.. ) then in 2nd pass picking entry and exit point that way we can try different entry/exit by keeping base criteria as it is ( we try this later )

profitLong:319
profitShort: 0
lossLong: -128
lossShort: -4.5
ran as java STOCK stopLoss_Padding crossover_padding
ran as java COPPER 15.0 5.0
--
profitLong:319
profitShort: 0
lossLong: -128
lossShort: 0
ran as java STOCK stopLoss_Padding crossover_padding
ran as java COPPER 15.0 8.0
--------


profitLong:300
profitShort: 0
lossLong: -155
lossShort: -4
ran as java STOCK stopLoss_Padding crossover_padding
ran as java COPPER 20.0 5.0
------

GOLD results *********************** Long Win/Loss ratio : 3/1
profitLong:299
profitShort: 13
lossLong: -107
lossShort: -60
ran as java STOCK stopLoss_Padding crossover_padding
ran as java Gold2 10.0 3.0

Trading with confirmation from stochastics

Stretegy: Trading with confirmation from stochastics
Here is my data :
data range: 6/2005 - 6/2007
pair: EUR/CHF

profit Long: 415 ( all in PIPs) -- over all win/loss = 750/400 => 2/1
loss Long: -123 -- by just trading only LONG we can have win/loss: 4/1 by avoiding SHORT

profit Short: 332
loss Short: -268

2005-06-14  2005-06-16  1.5382  1.5396   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0014   StopLoss-
1.4634
2005-07-29  2005-08-02  1.5597  1.5577   trade:3  TRENDChange 0.0020   StopLoss4
.5637
2005-08-24  2005-08-26  1.5537  1.5452   trade:2  TRENDChange -0.0085   StopLoss
-1.4478
2005-09-14  2005-09-16  1.5469  1.5489   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0020   StopLoss-
1.4548
2005-10-04  2005-10-07  1.5513  1.5475   trade:3  TRENDChange 0.0038   StopLoss4
.5544
2005-10-18  2005-10-20  1.5536  1.553   trade:2  TRENDChange -0.0006   StopLoss-
1.4487
2005-12-16  2005-12-20  1.5438  1.5513   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0075   StopLoss-
1.4599
2006-01-04  2006-01-06  1.5503  1.5446   trade:3  TRENDChange 0.0057   StopLoss4
.5538
2006-01-17  2006-01-20  1.5505  1.5532   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0027   StopLoss-
1.4527
2006-01-26  2006-01-30  1.5482  1.5548   trade:3  TRENDChange -0.0066   StopLoss
4.5512
2006-03-08  2006-03-13  1.561  1.5685   trade:3  TRENDChange -0.0075   StopLoss4
.5631
2006-04-25  2006-04-27  1.5711  1.5818   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0107   StopLoss-
1.4305
2006-05-25  2006-05-30  1.5532  1.5614   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0082   StopLoss-
1.45
2006-06-09  2006-06-13  1.5582  1.553   trade:3  TRENDChange 0.0052   StopLoss4.
5624
2006-06-21  2006-06-23  1.5584  1.5631   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0047   StopLoss-
1.4438
2006-07-13  2006-07-17  1.5668  1.5607   trade:3  TRENDChange 0.0061   StopLoss4
.5705
2006-08-02  2006-08-04  1.5722  1.5757   trade:3  TRENDChange -0.0035   StopLoss
4.5752
2006-10-03  2006-10-09  1.5836  1.5879   trade:2  TRENDChange 0.0043   StopLoss-
1.4159
2006-10-20  2006-10-25  1.5875  1.5903   trade:3  TRENDChange -0.0028   StopLoss
4.5916999999999994
2006-11-22  2006-11-27  1.5935  1.583   trade:3  TRENDChange 0.0105   StopLoss4.
5954999999999995
2006-12-04  2006-12-07  1.592  1.5888   trade:2  TRENDChange -0.0032   StopLoss-
1.4119
2007-03-20  2007-03-22  1.6125  1.6189   trade:3  TRENDChange -0.0064   StopLoss
4.6159

profitLong:0.0415
profitShort: 0.0333
lossLong: -0.0123
lossShort: -0.0268

Vantage Point

Trading with confirmation from stochastics
- click on the graph on this page at the bottom which shows good 70/30 graph
- WOW see win/loss ratio it is great even thought it happend only 8 trades in a year. try with other currencies , commodities , stocks.

Finding agreement to take a trade -- let us try to use this for position trade instead of day trade

Trading Rate Of Change ROC

Short-term ETF trading -- this text can be used to write a new strategy