Machine Learning , ZYX Change Method, Volume Profile , CL DAY Profile ,
Reference: see CL Notes posts
sources: here ask /post , ask Ernie about of CL portifolilo , how to get any job ...
0/ Practical advice
Ernie Chan: Ph.D. in physics from Cornell University and hands-on QUANT ( not theorist )
- IBM's Human Language Technologies group before joining the financial industry
- worked hedge funds (Mapleridge, Millennium Partners, MANE) since 1997
- Blogs since 2006 , answers many user questions
- In Book he said , after many loss years with complex strategies , he quit and started trading at home.
2007 post on stock Seasonals , XLE- USO spread
1/ GRPN , Pandora , Linked In , Angies List IPOs
IPO Lock-up Period:
The lock-up in the prospectus (Form 424B4) is a contract between the insiders and the purchasers of the IPO
For Groupon: offered only 6% share at IPO time the lowest in a decade, IPO price was of $20 . See what happens when the LOCK-in expires in MAY 2012 , price will be below $10 .
- now at $17 , wait for rebounce to $22 then short and wait for MAY 2012 .. to see GRPN below $10 ...
Groupon Inc. has tumbled 20 percent since its offering on Nov. 3,
- while Pandora Media Inc. has lost more than a third of its value since its IPO in June. HomeAway Inc., which went public two weeks after Pandora, has fallen 5.3 percent. Russia’s Yandex NV and China-based Renren Inc., two IPOs from May, also have dropped. All are now below their offering prices.
- Angie's List IPO price of $13 valued the Indianapolis-based company at more than $900 million, or about 11 times sales in the 12 months through September. That compared with Google Inc. (GOOG), which traded at about 5.4 times trailing 12-month sales
Zynga vs . EA + Activision
- Zynga Inc. will sell about 15 percent of its common stock in an initial public offering,
- plans to sell shares for $8.50 to $10 apiece in its IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, said the person, who declined to be identified because the terms are private. That would value Zynga at as high as $7 billion,
Zynga IPO pitch : good one .
Valuation:
At $10 billion, Zynga would be the second-largest U.S. game company
- after Activision Blizzard Inc., which has a capitalization of $14.2 billion.
- Electronic Arts Inc., which bought Zynga rival PopCap Games in August, has a market value of $7.69 billion based on yesterday's close.
The IPO would also value Zynga at as much as 9.8 times trailing 12-month sales, compared with about 3 times for Activision and
- 2 times for Electronic Arts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
How Zynga Stacks Up To Japan’s Social Gaming Giant, GREE
asr: only 3% of zynga 250 million users are paid users as of 12/2011
- if they can double those paid users in and 1.5 times
- and increase of total users to 2x that is 500 milllion users
- then future revenue will be
1.5 x 1.5 = 2.25 x of today ( 1 $B ) => $2.25 Billion/year
- if they do that by End of 2013 ( 2 years )
Assume : today 12/2011 EA, Activision , Zynga avg.TTS is = ( 2 + 3 + 10 ) / 3 = 5
case 1: pessimistic : avg. is 5 , give zyna 80% premium to avg. that gives Zynga TTM as 8 , so next 2 years avg. price is : TTS 8 that 20% below IPO valuationn that is $8 Billion.
Case 2: moderate: growth 70% , TTS is 8 then $15 Billion market cap
case 3 : Optimistic : with 2 x growth , TTS is 10 that is $20
1/ Messy Data Cleanup
- use google Refine to export json , Reading Data from Flash Sites ( see all other methods )
- asr: I think we can capature DATA from Moore's CL seasonals PDF ( copy data from PDF to text file), and let google Refine clean that data.
1/ OIL News
http://quantpedia.com/Chart/Complexity -- good charting , for CL we need this kind of final charts with our 'option backed Future contract ' stragetgy , tested with 'google Refine' then do 'Orange Machine Leaning' mining and graphs ...
- good sequence of steps graph: we need this kind for CL with different scenarios , mostly horizantal boxes . Use some HTML5 Canvas Lib to draw these boxes etc. .
Natural Gas : Could Shale Gas Reignite the U.S. Economy? , Good Paper with Charts at Bottom , Impact On Russia
“The United States,” McClendon boasts, “has the capacity to become the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.”
This thing is a potential game-changer,” says Fred Krupp, president of the New York-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
- Shale production in the U.S. has increased from practically nothing in 2000 to more than 13 billion cubic feet per day, or about 30 percent of the country’s natural gas supply.
- That proportion is heading toward 50 percent in coming years.
- The U.S. passed Russia in 2009 to become the world’s largest producer of natural gas.
UNIQUE PATENTED ZYX CHANGE METHOD: Profile Patent Book Recommendations Calls Buy/Sell
The premise behind the ZYX Change Method is that the most money with the least risk is made by successfully predicting change before the crowd. The method consists of six screens to be applied in a specific order and trade management guidelines.
- on RIMM ( on 9/15/11 when at 25 ) The Quantitative Screen of the ZYX Change Method shows that the fair value of the stock in the short-term is $20 and $12 in the long-term if the company continues on its present path.
Volume Profile:
- good Volume At Price (VAP) , that to projected for tomorrow based on last N days VAP . Very usuful to see nextday support levels , for CL having past 5 days will give good VAP for next day ( than past 15 days etc. )
Chart is for 2/26/10 EOD that is Friday and Expansion showed Volume Profile for future next day that is coming Monday
1/ Machine Learning:
Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques
asr: I read book inside , it gave basic Ideas on ML with 'optical eye glasses ' examples , 'power utility' forecast based on 'season/time of day etc.. ' . It seems this 'utitlity' concept works for our 'CL oil' daily forecast based on input like ' Strong UP trend day/ Very strong uptrend day/ side ways day / Strong DOWN trend day .." once we provide those inputs based on EMA20 passing 80% bars etc ( see my CL Notes post for details )
- and also providing with 'Euro' and S&P 5 min data for 10 years along with CL data , RBOB data and GC Gold and copper HG .. and
closed day DAX , UK , HOng kong/ Japan market data ..
- and also providing with 'Euro' and S&P 5 min data for 10 years along with CL data , RBOB data and GC Gold and copper HG .. and
closed day DAX , UK , HOng kong/ Japan market data ..
UNIQUE PATENTED ZYX CHANGE METHOD: Profile Patent Book Recommendations Calls Buy/Sell
The premise behind the ZYX Change Method is that the most money with the least risk is made by successfully predicting change before the crowd. The method consists of six screens to be applied in a specific order and trade management guidelines.
- on RIMM ( on 9/15/11 when at 25 ) The Quantitative Screen of the ZYX Change Method shows that the fair value of the stock in the short-term is $20 and $12 in the long-term if the company continues on its present path.
(asr: at least this ZYX method validates , my thinking we need a method/set of Screens for CL to predict prices ) ..
Volume Profile:
- good Volume At Price (VAP) , that to projected for tomorrow based on last N days VAP . Very usuful to see nextday support levels , for CL having past 5 days will give good VAP for next day ( than past 15 days etc. )
Chart is for 2/26/10 EOD that is Friday and Expansion showed Volume Profile for future next day that is coming Monday
CL DAY profile: asr: This guy post is agreeing with my earlier view ( see post CL Notes )
- knowledge of the likely price levels and time windows (clock time) where reversals are likely to occur
- template for the type of day - whether an up day, down day, range bound day, which levels are important, likely range etc
- pattern recognition skills from looking at thousands of CL trading days
- multiple timeframe analysis to drill down into entries, including very fast charts, volume or tick based charts etc
- on chart lines and indicators
- volume analysis
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