Wednesday, September 30, 2009

OIL recovery on 9/30 after staying at low down level at 66 for a week

OIL, GOLD, dOW, bonds, DOllar
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$indu,$usb,$usd,$gold,$wtic

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2009/10/inter-market-leaders-for-2009.html

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OIL tumbeled 9/21 to 9/24 from 72 to 66 reached 66 on 9/24 Thursday
and remained 66 to 67.5 from 9/24 to 9/30 Wesnedday , that is 1 day less than a week for OIL to remain at the same price while S&P maintained at 1050 and EURO EURO maintained at 1.465 level.
When EURO , S&P maintatained same level for a week , OIL dropping 6% and statying there for 4 trading days this is unusual . We need to test this price SETUP and run on TS on historic data to see the ODDS of OIL going UP

so looking at comparision chart of SPY , FXU , USO for this week may give some idea.
- also do a rolling ( last ) 5 days change, 4 days change, 3 days change charts to see patterns . comapre those patterns with previous low points of OIL and how they came back .

bunking the GURUS
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all 3 gurus 1) JIM ritter bush 2) PHIL pgbbest 3) Brad Zigler all said bearish
JIM gave short at 68.50 level ( he gave on 9/30 before EIA report ) , phil at 68.50 level

- these GURUS did gave bearish last week before EIA when OIL was 72 but they said NO short , it can go to 75
- but when it is 66 how can they just say based on fundamentals just short
- it seems market makers /big traders patiently waited to keep 66 level for 1 week while equity markets gained ...

http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/bears-hold-the-technical-advantage-in-the-crude-market/30667

OIL margins , cracks historic charts

NYMEX Product Cracks



asr note: if you enlarge picture you see the following
1/ every OCTOBER RBOB crack is lowest price then it increase from there reach peak around MARCH/APRIL
2/ every MARCH/APRIL high price of "RBOB crack" also push the "crude price" to high as JIM RItter bush mentioned in this letters around MARCH/april stating gasoline uptrend price (RBOB carck ) is pushing "Crude OIL CL" price higher .
2/ so when RBOB crack is low in OCTOBER time line , it also may mean low price of CRUDE going by 2/ of JIM BUSCHE above .


NYMEX-Implied Refining Margins
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The seasonal squeeze on crack spreads continued as gasoline margins deteriorated in favor of heavier distillates. And 3-2-1 refinery runs, at 6.4% Tuesday, now yield 1% less than 2-1-1 cracks. Over the past 12 months, the gross margin from 3-2-1 refining has averaged 17.8%.





NYMEX CL near by month contract price

Monday, September 28, 2009

OIL daily return distribution


this is interesting concept , look at this chart of "OIL daily return distribution"
- same thing can be constructed for "week" like "OIL weekly return distribution"

Weekly Volatility Tracker: Overpaying for Options

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this is other OIL related posts site Phil posts here .
http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

finviz : finacial vizuvalizations , this site gives all stories for a symbol mainly opnionated seekalpha news etc..
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=USO
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Classification of Option Strategies
Broadly, Option Strategies are classified under 5 categories :
Bullish Strategies,
Bearish Strategies,
Volatile Strategies,
Neutral Strategies and Arbitrage Strategies.


Here, you get to learn all of these Option Strategies for free!

Friday, September 25, 2009

OIL notes

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asr: this article sumps up the BULL/BEAR/Neutral case for OIL. we have 3 cases with eqaul weight from this $75 as of 11/26/09. so BULL + Neurtal has 2/3 chances so 75 is today's price . I can say we will see 85 by end of JAN 2011 that is in 2 months again.

Hiding behind gold's flashy moves, oil's the true performer

Despite a hefty drop in oil and gold in electronic trading Friday, oil prices have still jumped around 65% year to date, far outpacing gold's 31 % rise -- and that may only mark the beginning of oil's fancy footwork.
Crude-oil futures climbed to a front-month record high above $147 per barrel in New York in July of 2008, only to sink back to lows around the $35 level by December. Then by June, they managed to double in price to trade at the $70 mark

Essentially, the Great Recession and oversupply have created an economic and psychological barrier at $80 per barrel," said Anthony Sabino, a professor of law at St. John's University whose legal practice includes oil and gas law

With that in mind, James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, thinks a "price collapse is far more likely than a new record -- or even $90."

"Unlike oil, a number of other commodity plays are getting very susceptible to having the rug pulled out from under them when investors lose interest," said Neal Ryan, a managing partner at Ryan Oil & Gas Partners LLC.

"As other commodity markets start getting toppy, interest will return to the oil sector because there is the fundamental support to be long-term bullish that might not exist in other commodities," he said.


"I don't believe consolidating at the $70-$80 price range is setting up for a major step back -- quite the opposite," said Ryan. "As the global economy continues to recover, we'll see prices start a slow march upwards to the triple-digit level again, but the price rise should be orderly and not cause the same issues that the doubling in price over six months caused a year ago."

As Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, points out: "there's a huge surplus of oil in floating storage right now which should be depressing prices, but isn't."

And much of oil's price gains have been attributed to the U.S. dollar's decline.

Without the "weak dollar story, this market does not have much to be excited about and prices would be quickly vulnerable to a substantial sell off, said Todd Hultman, editor of DailyFutures.com.

The dollar weakness explains some of the current price, but "it doesn't explain most of it," said Williams. "At some point, the futures market must come into balance with the physical supply, demand and stocks -- when it does, we are looking at oil prices in the $50 to $60 range."

So, "while you can always find an anemic green shoot, the U.S. economy is still shedding jobs, the consumer is spending less and saving more and a significant percentage of homeowners are upside down in their mortgages with homes worth less than what they owe," he said.

"Unemployment is high and likely to remain high throughout 2010. This is just not an economic environment that argues for oil anywhere near the current price," he said.

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***************************************
we need to add this Brad Zigler hardassetinvestor.com to our OIL Elite list of fundamental analysis
1) Jim Ritter Bushe
2) hightower report
3) pfgbest Phil energy
4) Brad Zigler hardassetinvestor.com
5) MF global OIL daily update ( sent when trading with them )
6) need to read oil COT report

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11/12/09

Petroleum Inventories: EVERYTHING Was Drawn Down

asr: I need to learn about this swap and money managers and COT report of OIL ( I have COT book and search there is a COT blog , I may need to take a private lesson with COT blog guy ).

Investment interest in crude oil reached new heights last week as money managers—speculative investment funds—built a record net long exposure in futures. In a countermove, swap dealers flipped to a net short position for the first time since December 2008. Presently, money managers are the only long trading block in the futures market; commercial users/producers, swap dealers and noninstitutional traders are all short.

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PFGbest notes
No Where to run to 11/11/2009

But before we get too bearish, overnight industrial production numbers out of China could get the bulls jets revved up. The Chinese Industrial production output number surged 16.1%. Hey, I thought the Chinese government was trying to slow things down! Well obviously at this point, not as much as the market thinks.

China was one of the reasons the Energy Information Agency raised their oil demand outlook by 150,000 barrels a day. The EIA said sustained economic growth in China and other Asian countries is contributing to the beginning of a rebound in world oil consumption, leading EIA to revise its expectations for world oil consumption upwards for the second consecutive month. Of course 150,000 barrels a day in a globe with millions of barrels of spare production capacity probably isn’t bullish enough to break us out of this range.

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PFGBest post on 11/9/09
Getting Blown Away

The oil market is getting blown in different directions. On one hand, Friday’s dismal jobs report would seem to suggest that demand for oil will be bad in the US. That drove oil lower on Friday. Yet on the other hand the weak jobs number means the Fed should keep the stimulus machine stimulating. In fact if we see more weak data it may even raise the possibility of more quantitative easing in the future. That would be dollar bearish and commodity bullish. That seems to be one of the reasons that oil is rallying this morning. Another reason is weather.

Hurricane Ida is a killer storm and is shutting down production in the Gulf of Mexico. Matt Rogers at Commodity Weather Group, LLC says that hurricane Ida is


At this point it seem unlikely that there will be any major damage to the facilities in the Gulf yet the market has to be cautious. It is hard to determine how much of the rally in oil is Ida related and how much is it is dollar related.

Yet at the same time it seems that OPEC is pumping more oil. Mark Shenk With Bloomberg News reports that, "OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near-record inventories and threatening speculators betting on $100 crude with losses." Shenk says that the number of options contracts to buy oil at $100 by March almost quadrupled in October and increased another 5.9 percent so far this month.


As traders piled in, OPEC boosted production 4 percent, or 1.1 million barrels a day, since March amid the worst global recession since World War II. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has targeted $75 oil as a fair price for consumers and producers and has the capacity to increase pumping by about 50 percent, or 4 million barrels a day, enough for all of Brazil. The prospect of more supply comes with inventories in industrial countries already the highest since 1998, when oil collapsed to $10.”

asr: is this expected INCREASE saudis and OPEC oil production is causing OIL not to raise above 80 for last one week even with SP 1100 and EURO at 1.50 level. seems so

We're long December crude from apprx 7727 - raise stop to 7745!
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9/28/09 (monday):
0/ equity markets UP almost 1.7% SP gaining 18 points based on M&A activity.
1/ OIL varied from 66 to 67.75 and back to 67.0 level
1.2/ CNQ as usual showed 2% gain after OPEN against 1% of USO . then CNQ retreated to 1% then again back to 2%
2/ Phil said this:
Iran fired test missile. When Iran exports hover just above 2 million barrels a day, there are many oil producers waiting in line ready to pick up that extra slack. Saudi Arabia has enough spare production capacity to replace Iran’s exports two times over. Because of this, in a weird way the Iran’s lies and fireworks display might actually be more bearish for oil than bullish. Why you ask? Well because traders may seek the safety of the dollar ( bullish dollar) as this global crisis plays out. The dollar has had more impact on oil than supply anyway because we already know that we have plenty.
2.2/ EURO is 1.46 today down than usual 1.47 , USD firmed today confirming above Phil statement.
2.3 / above Phil's note may be holding else for 1.7% S&P gain oil should have gained easily 3% given their low of 66 , instead it gained 1.3% to 67.0
3/ JIM said fundamentals bearish this with this chart saying gasoline stocks are close to JULY peak high level.
DOE chart site here http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html




4/ buying simple OIL CL or USO call is less risk option as JIM/Phil are bearish on OIL. on friday 66 at money call of $3 would have given $1.5 up today at one time should have given $1500 and easy low risk trade and exit in one day for 50% gain.
- even if market is up only 0.5% today OIL should have up atleast 1% , so getting out with this 1% is not bad

5/ here is basic reserach on option premium
for OIL USO or CL future the option premium is same that is 1.5% per week ( this is AT THE MONEY options premium )
- in case of USO that is 1.5% of $34 => 45 cents/week => $1.50 for 3 week before option expiry
- same % for CL that is for $66 => 1.5% is 90 cents/week so for 3 week contract $2.75
- so for 1 week for OIL 1.5% premium is not bad , if you break up "time volatality premium" say 65% and "price volatality premium" say 35% not bad for 1 WEEK preiod.


9/25/09:
1/ CL today at 66.07 ( +0.2%) while S&P betwen +1 and -7
2/ RIM with -15% down and durabled goods bad report pulled equities down
3/ morning CNQ rallied +2% by seeing OIL overnight recovery of +1% so at OPEN CNQ LONG should have been good trade to get out around +2% ( refer the other post of oil volatailty)
4/ at +2% , SHORT CNQ/LONG ES would have been good trade to trade the CNQ fade , for 2 hours ES was at +1 point and CNQ faded ( ofcourse after checking CNQ news )
5/ PFGbest lowered OIL short entry from 7400 to 6900 surprising given in the post IRAQ tensions OBama and western leaders pointed IRAQ secret nuclear facilities ( this should increase geo-political factor for OIL then why this guy lowered $4 short entry)
6/ USO options for strike $36 CALLS( equivalent $71 OIL ) remained same as yesterday that is at 40 cents( even if OIL is holding at 66 which is low , I thought when OIL hold at 66 these options will increase )
6.2/ CNBC heading: Crude futures ended Friday's volatile trading up slightly, rising for the first session in three after the release of mixed economic data. But futures tumbled more than 8% this week, the biggest weekly loss in more than two months.

7/ GOldman kept his 2009 year target of OIL $85
( asr: hope this goldman will keep lid on OIL bottom, I feel this is one of low entry of the rest 3 months 2009, this is positive to buy CALLS of $75 )
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Analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their forecasts Friday for global oil demand for the fourth quarter of 2009 and for 2010 by 1.2 million barrels a day and 1.6 million barrels a day, respectively.

"The permanent damage from the credit crisis is much less than we had previously thought, which means that we are beginning the recovery from a higher base," wrote Jeffrey Currie and other Goldman analysts in a research note.

At the same time, Goldman maintained its price forecasts, saying that higher anticipated demand has been met by stronger supply, particularly out of Russia and the rest of the former Soviet Union.

As a result, Goldman raised its global supply forecasts by an amount similar to its global demand forecast.

Goldman kept its end-of-year target for benchmark crude prices at $85 a barrel, along with an average 2010 price forecast of $90 a barrel and its end-of-2010 target of $95 a barrel.
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Long-short relative trade

Long-Short equity investment strategy where long position is taken for an UPside expected instrument where as SHORT instument is used as to hedge down side risk.
examples:
LONG CNQ/short ES
in example we expect short-term( few hours) bias is CNQ will go up relative to ES,
- in most cases we expect CNQ goes up by say 1% where as OIL down by only 0.2%
- even if CNQ drops it drops much smaller than ES coz CNQ already dropped much relative to S&P ES

ralative position size:

1% value of side 1 = 1% value of side 2
.01 x #of shares x price-of-stock = 1% values of S&P future ES
.01 x N x $25 = say S&P ES is at 1050 , so 1% is 10.5
.01 x N x $25 = 10.5 ES contract points
.01 x N x $25 = 10.5 x $50 ( each point is $50 )
N x 25 = $525 /.01
N = $50000
N = $50,000 / stock-price
N = %50,000 /$25 = 2000

so we need to buy 2000 stocks of $25 stock to make it equal to 1% gain of S&P ES
- if a given stock price is $50 ( like CNQ )then we need only 1000 stocks.
- with 4x margin you need 50 x 1000/4 = $12,500 in account ..

- so for CNQ to do relative trade with S&P ES , you need $15k + $5k(for ES) = 20k account
- then there is pattern day trader rule allows only 3 days/week?

Thursday, September 24, 2009

USO , WTI crude OIL options

on 9/24 WTI crude oil dropped to $66 one of the lowest in 3 weeks.
- at this time USO is $34 and here are USO OCTober calls/puts (expire on OCT 16 th , in 25 days)
$2 away from today price of $34
- USO call strike $36 trades at 70 cents
- USO PUT strike $32 trades at 70 cents
so do a "SELL 32 PUT/BUY 36 CALL" , net cost is $0 , this is called zero-cost cylinder
USO $36 is equivalent to WTI crude future contract price of $72

$4 away from today price of $34
- USO call strike $38 trades at 35/30 cents
- USO PUT strike $30 trades at 25 cents
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OUR OWN OIL zero-cyclinder options for Insurance
- in our own simple way we can buy $7 away CALLS when OIL dropped $7 in 2 days , same way buy PUTS of $7 away when OIL raised $5-7 in 2 days.

case OIL is at $73 around 9/17 , buy $66 PUTS on that day
then on 9/23 oil dropped to $66 , buy OIL here and the same day buy $73/74 CALLS

- then use those options as insurance to SHORT when OIL raise back
- use these PUT options as insurance when OIL dropped to BUY
- instead of cashing the options use them as insurance to profit from RETRACEMETNS in OIL price after BOUNCE.

we can user Iron-condur/Butter fly strategies for our OIL options.

Trading Options With The Zero-Cost Cylinder
Zero-Cost Cylinder

In a zero-cost cylinder, a trader buys a call and sells a put, or sells a call and then buys a put, with both options out of the money. In buying the call the trader ensures involvement in the increasing price of the option. Selling the put requires that the trader buy the option at the prearranged price if it reaches that point. This strategy is designed to protect the trader from the risk that the underlying asset will fall or rise to a certain level in the future. The strike price is selected so that the premium received from the sale of the option is equal to the premium used in buying the other option. This is how the zero-cost cylinder got its name.
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Iron Condors: Wing It To Maximum Profit

An iron condor, is an advanced option strategy that is favored by traders who desire consistent returns and do not want to spend an inordinate amount of time preparing and executing trades. As a neutral position, it can provide a high probability of return for those who have learned to execute it correctly.


Most new traders are taught to execute this strategy by creating the entire position all at once, which neither maximizes profit nor minimizes risk. An alternative method is to build the position in parts and to execute the separate credit spreads in relation to price trends of the underlying security. Creating the position in this way maximizes the credit available and trades a profit range.

The iron condor creates a trading range that is bounded by the strike prices of the two sold options. Losses are only realized if the underlying rises above the call strike or fall below the put strike. Because there is no additional risk to take on the second position, it is often to the trader's benefit to take on the second position and the additional return it provides.


The best time to create either the bull put spread or the bear call spread is when the underlying has moved significantly in the direction of resistance (for the call spread) or support (for the put spread) or maintained the trend for several sessions in a row. As the underlying loses value over a period of time, buyers will obtain puts for profit as insurance against further losses. When this happens, market makers will significantly increase the cost of puts, which increases the premiums for sellers. Conversely, when the underlying increases, more buyers go long. This increases the premiums for calls and credits for the call spread.
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Spreading The Word About Portfolio Margin

With portfolio margin the farther the position is from the underlying (out of the money) security, the less likely it will incur losses, resulting in lower margin requirements. With portfolio margin, it's possible to significantly increase the return-risk ratio for spread positions than with traditional margin. The farther out of the money, the greater the reduction in margin and the greater the return enhancement at that level of risk. The following table represents the difference in margin requirements between the traditional calculation and portfolio margin for the spread examples previously mentioned.

RUT Put Spread Traditional Margin Portfolio Margin
350/340 $8,200 $2,307*
250/240 $9,850 $667*
*Calculated using April 2009 options and underlying at $390.25


Using the 250/240 spread and assuming a 15 cent per share credit, the traditional margin would result in a 1.52% monthly investment return. Using the same credit, the portfolio margin requirement would result in a return of as much as 23%, a huge reward for that level of risk.
( asr: wow 23% monthly return .. )

asr: wow for 667 is 1/4 of margin .. if you have portifoli margin account of 100k this leads to creating 10x for $6k gain . If we wait say for 20 days for $6k gain , we can keep $100k in portfolio account and for Risk 250/240 is 100 points away from the current trading of 390 ( seems Russel 2000 index options?).
Research this further

asr: shricapital etc. guys may be using this kind of strategy for consistent profits.

Using the 250/240 spread and assuming a 15 cent per share credit, the traditional margin would result in a 1.52% monthly investment return. Using the same credit, the portfolio margin requirement would result in a return of as much as 23%, a huge reward for that level of risk.

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FSLR 110-130-150 Call Butterfly
(see picture explains better )
The trade displayed in Figure 1 involves buying one 110 call, selling two 130 calls and buying one 150 call. As you can see, this trade has limited risk on both the upside and the downside. The risk is limited to the net amount paid to enter the trade (in this example: $580).

The trade also has limited profit potential, with a maximum profit of $1,420. This would only occur if FSLR closed exactly at $130 on the day of option expiration. While this is unlikely, the more important point is that this trade will show some profit as long as FSLR remains between roughly 115 and 145 through the time of option expiration. (Be sure to check out the Buying Options section of our Simulator How-To Guide to learn how to buy options like these.)

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

How to Trade Oil ETF Volatility





How to Trade Oil ETF Volatility
Few investors realize it, but the oil ETFs give investors a monthly opportunity to make day trading profits on senior oil stocks.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) is now so large, it contains more than 20% of the outstanding March crude oil futures contracts (West Texas Intermediate, or WTI). Now, being an ETF, it does NOT want to take physical delivery of that oil. So at some point each month – and that would be the 5th, 6th and 7th business days of the month – it rolls over their entire set of contracts to the next month – putting undue, abnormal pressure on the oil price those days. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index does the same thing every month, but on the 6th, 7th and 8th business days. Roll dates are usually published in advance – USO provides theirs on their website.

BetaPro Horizons, which operates the Canadian oil ETFs, symbols HOU and HOD, say they roll over their Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures contracts on the 7th, 8th and 9th business days, but claim their holdings are so small compared to the other two that there would be no impact in the markets from their activity. Still, it would likely accentuate the already abnormal pressure.

Trading for the WTI contract is open 01:00 London (local time). The close is at 23:00 London time, except Monday morning when the open is 23:00 London time. In other words, well before stock markets open for trading, investors can see what the futures are doing, and will often react to their direction.

Savvy investors can potentially benefit from this event by buying senior oil stocks, whose performance tends to mirror the oil price almost exactly, with timely at-the-market orders, just as other investors react to the pre-opening WTI futures contract price down-tick as “forced” selling by these ETFs takes place.
asr: forced selling of old month 'curde oil WTI futures' . Buying of next month can they delay for few days??? or should they buy same time as they SELL.

They can either do this ahead of the anticipated price pressure by selling their stocks at the close the day before, and/or by buying these stocks during the spike-down opening trade. Really aggressive investors may take advantage using the underlying options on these stocks - a tougher trade requiring precision timing and loads of experience.

As an example (refer to the 5-minute Candlesticks charts below), let’s look at the trading of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), a reasonably liquid Canadian producer of over 565,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a $30 billion enterprise value. So, USO starts rolling over their contracts early on February 6, before stock markets open. CNQ had closed the prior day, February 5, at CAD$44.81. On the open February 6 CNQ is down sharply at $43.35, and bottoms at $42.55 within the first 5 minutes of trading, and within 15 minutes after the opening was back up to $44.62. It closed the day at $45.43.

Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF.PK), another liquid stock that tracks the oil price, similarly started trading on February 6 down sharply at $19.62 after having closed at $20.50 on February 5. Within the first 15 minutes of trading it rebounded back up to $20.40. It closed the day up 51 cents at $21.01, with a high of $21.60.


These gap-down-opens were undoubtedly caused by nervous investors reacting to the sharp oil price drop reflected by the pre-opening futures markets (albeit in conjunction with horrible, but expected jobless numbers).

These ETFs are getting very popular, and are so large that they are having an increasingly large impact on the market. Reuters reports that USO has increased in size 400% just since early December.

This is an example of the crazy derivative trading that Warren Buffett warned us about years ago, and what brought down the world’s financial system last fall (think CDS – Credit Default Swaps).

But this is our current reality. Obviously, this trade is for sophisticated and/or brave and/or crazy investors. But if you are a good day trader, it could represent an opportunity for quick profits.

Monday, September 21, 2009

OIL EURO SP / DIG DUG CNQ / FXE USO SPY

Energy ETFs
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/energy.html

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/



on EIA crude stocks data release day 9/23 here is DUG ( 2x short) , USO and UNG

note: see at 10:30
1) DUG 2x short first raised +4% when USO dropped -4% at 10:40
2) by 11 am DUG dipped to 3% ( in line with USO )
3) by 11:15 raised to 4% ( in line with USO )
4) then in next 2 hours DUG dropped from 4% to 2% while USO is at -4%
5) see if this sudden euphoria of panic buying in DUG to cash the OIL short then subsequent fade is repeated historically on EIA WEDnesdays . This can be tested with TradeStation intraday data since DUG, USO are both stocks like as far as data is concerned.

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DTO is 2x double sort , true 2x inverse of USO
- I do not see much performance diff betwene USO ( month to month roll vs. USL (12 month roll )
post note: it seems DUG is mixed ETF of OIL and Natural gas , so not pure inverse of USO where as DTO is pure inverse of USO yahoo chart showed it.
- also the article below points to DTO for OIL short not DUG so that also tells pure oil short play is DTO.

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DIG: DIG is +2x where as DUG is -2x of Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index

DUG : The Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index measures the performance of the energy sector of the U.S. equity market.

DIG is like CNQ where CNQ is canadian based single energy company which has exploration,disribution etc. of OIL where as DIG does similar to CNQ but DIG has set of oil, drilling etc.. as a group companies.

Oil and Gas Producers 77.39%
Oil Equipment, Services and Distribution 21.65%

Exxon 31% , Chevron 12% ,Schlumberger 6%

ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index

note: see on 9/23 at 10:30 DUG try to do inverse of USO at begining even that is only 1:1 ( 4%) but at that time Exxon, chevron dropped only 1% while DUG at 4% .
- if Exxon/chevron stayed at -1% , the best can be DUG can stay at +2% since it is 2X inverse of DowUSoilGas index. so there is short opty for DUG to come from +4 to +2%
- wheat heppened is Exxon/chevron revered from -1% to 0% , then DUG came down from +4 to +1%
- test DUG on WEDNESDAY EIA Data days again +3 or -3% of CL curde light future with respect to component weight values of EXXON/CHEV etc.. back test and see how they are doing ..


Study 2:
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Study USO , WTI ( future contract ) down days along with CNQ as shown in other article and also witnenessed on 9/23 as shown below
- include this CNQ in trade station study in the back testing. this CNQ is different twist than DTO , CNQ is purly play of OIL
- notice after morning drop along with USO , CNQ recovered quikly..
- trade ideas: after back testing with TS, one stragetgy to employ is after 10:30 EIA drop CNQ has dropped already so either a) go LONG CNQ b) LONG CNQ/short USO , this b) is conservative ralative Trade.
- We want to specilize "OIL relative trades" ( one short/one LONG) of different types ,
a) OIL/S&P
b) OIL/EURO ( WTI , EURO Fx spot/futture)
c) this is a) and b) same time so 2 OIL contracts/LONG , 1 S&P short , 1 EURO short
d) WTI long/ DUG short after OIL fall 10:30 am on WED EIA report
e) WIT short/CNQ LONG after OIL fall 10:30 am on WED EIA report
( for this e) case we have 2 validated back tests 1) 9/23 image attached 2) 2/9/09 see OIL volatality aritcle
f) OIL recovery days after drop: 9/21 and 9/22 CNQ raised better than USO seems CNQ is running ahead of USO for over recovery ( see my chart , we need to back test this for all oil raise days )
e) find is there any stock corrlating to CNQ like pURE OIL PLAY .
(of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), a reasonably liquid Canadian producer of over 565,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a $30 billion enterprise value.)

OIL test SETUPs
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setup S1 : OIL WTI up 2% or more on the day ( try with param 2% , 3% , 4% ), short WTI/long ES
S2 : OIL WTI up 2% or more on the day , short WTI/long EURUSD
s3 : S1 & S2
S4 : OIL UP 3% combined for Monday & tuesday , SHORT WTI TUesady close/LONG(ES + EUROUSD )
S5 : OIL down 3% at 10:45 am on WEDnesday after EIA report WTI is settled at low , LONG CNQ
S6 : OIL down 3% at 10:45 am on WEDnesday after EIA report WTI is settled at low , short DUG

- first in TS get Dates for meeting those conditions then from those dates try intraday trade staring once Trade started thru EUROPEAN sessioin , exit when NET profit from OIL/ES/EURO combined is 1% of WTI entry price ( 70 cents net profit when OIL entry price is $70 )
- on Daily Chart WTI have commentary when placed on each bar ( each day) commentary box like " 2 day combined gain is 3.5% , 5 day gain is 4.5% , RSI(2) is 89 like that" so that we can mouse over each bar and see notes and run SETUP based on those
- Have a secondary graph on WIT graph showing ( WTI - ES ) , ( WTI - EURUSD ), (2 * WIT - ES -EURUSD )



----------
comparision chart of EURO OIL SP ( sumbols FXE USO SPY )
EURO OIL S&P

The Complete List of Currency ETFs

The number of Foreign Currency ETFs and ETNs has exploded in the past year. Our readers at AboutETFs.com have asked us repeatedly to publish an updated list of all currency ETFs and currency ETNs. So, by popular demand, here they are as of September 1, 2008:
INDIVIDUAL CURRENCY PRODUCTS

* RydexShares ETFs: Australian Dollar (FXA), British Pound (FXB), Canadian Dollar (FXC), Euro (FXE), Japanese Yen (FXY), Mexican Peso (FXM), Swedish Krona (FXS) and Swiss Franc (FXF)
* WisdomTree ETFs: Euro (EU), Japanese Yen (JYF), Brazilian Real (BZF), Indian Rupee (ICN), New Zealand Dollar (BNZ), US Current Income Fund (USY), Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB) and South African Rand (SZR)
* Barclays iPath ETNs: Euro (ERO), British Pound ((GBB) and Japanese Yen (JYN)
* Elements ETNs: Australian Dollar (ADE), British Pound (EGB), Canadian Dollar (CUD), Euro (ERE) and Swiss Franc (SZE)
--------
EURO short: EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) should gain 2% (before fees and expenses). On the other side of the coin, if the euro rises 1% against the dollar in one day, EUO should lose 2% (before fees and expenses)


: Double Short Euro (DRR)


this guy said buy DRR as he see pressure on EURO in AUG 2008 , this chart he prediction is correct
- may he he can be our EURO consultant on daily basis ...
- this guy seems correct on this JULY 31 prediction on
------

Make Your Play and Hedge Your Bets in OIL

United States 12 Month Oil and PowerShares DB Oil are two alternative oil ETFs that could be used in place of the USO due to their setup, which seeks to mitigate the effects of contango. We could take a long position in those two securities while simultaneously shorting the USO in an effort to profit from the impact of contango.

Furthermore, we'd add an additional short position in the ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF . I would create the original setup in the following ratio:


- asr SZO (1:1) , DUG (2x), DTO (2x) these 3 are OIL SHORT
- asr all these 4 below are OIL LONG 1:1 levarege funds


* $200 long USL,
* $200 long DBO,
* $100 short USO, and
* $100 short UCO.

This is simply a modified net long position, similar to buying $100 in USL, DBO or even USO, but paired in such a way that over the long term, the grouping actually benefits from contango and volatility, two words that fly out of your mouth when talking about oil prices.

- The USL/DBO pairing with the USO short is specifically tailored to harvest contango in the oil markets,
- while the pairing with the short UCO is set up to profit from the value divergence of the leveraged ETF.


Over time, UCO and USO can erode in value even as the price of oil moves higher. That same impact can happen on DBO and USL as well, but history shows us that this scenario has not been as prevalent on their values. This is still designed as a longer-term hedge, but one that could profit in an oil market that moves up, down or sideways.
----

Two are exchange-traded notes from PowerShares and Deutsche Bank. The Crude Oil Short ETN (NYSE: SZO) provides 1:1 inverse coverage of its underlying index. Meanwhile, the Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSE: DTO) does just what its name implies.
-----
XLE : Energy SPDR - XLE
asr: this XLE seems similar to DIG/DUG and CNQ
Energy companies in this Index primarily develop and produce crude oil and natural gas, and provide drilling and other energy-related services. Leaders in the group include ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp, and ConocoPhillip
-----

Correlation Tracker

Correlation - Statistical measure of the degree to which the movements of two variables (stock/ETF) are related. The results range from -1.0 to +1.0.
http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/

Historic Volatality




--------------

In fact, predicting volatility is a bit less hazardous compared with forecasting asset returns directly. That's related to the fact that volatility's long run expected return is zero. One benefit of this somewhat less-mysterious long-run future for volatility makes it useful for assessing risk levels as an indirect clue about market returns.
- Unusually low levels volatility, for instance, may be a sign that equity prices are ripe for a correction. In 2007, the year before the stock market suffered its worst calendar-year performance since the Great Depression, volatility was unusually low by historical standards.
- The opposite is also worth pondering. When volatility spikes, as it did in the financial crisis, the cyclical nature of the VIX suggests stock market performance may be set for better days.
-asr: Eon Kid confirmed this once on ET , that low volatality is sign of weakness/correction

hat's not surprising, given the intimate connection between volatility and markets. As noted Stock Market Volatility (edited by finance professor Greg Gregoriou): "Volatility is an inevitable market experience mirroring 1) fundamentals, 2) information, and 3) market expectations. Interestingly, these three elements are closely associated and interact with each other."
-------------------

Here is link for original PDF file ..


note: we found above charts only for Forex, I assume they must be available for all commodities like Energty, grains etc..

How to interpret BULL/BEAR chart
asr: can compare recover years like 2003 with 2009 for S&P ..

bull/bear chart consists of one composite pattern for bull years (solid line) and one for bear years (dotted line), with component contract years for each indicated in the box (“78” denotes 1978) for reference. Ratherthan chronologically, the order of contract years listed is determined by the degree of inclination/declination of the line best describing its scatterplot. In other words, the most bullish (as defined by comparing slopes) of the bull years is listed first, but the most bearish of the bear years is listed last.

That neither bull nor bear pattern reaches either 0 or 100 reflects a conscious decision made to better reproduce the vigor of dynamic trends. When MRCI constructs a 15-year pattern, averaged raw percentage values for each calendar day typically lie between 35 and 65—and are then blown out to between 0 and 100 to reflect greatest tgendency. That final step is not taken when constructing these bull/bear patterns, and thus each better represents the extent of the typical bull or bear move.

---
trading Idea 3 using volatility
- high priced PUT/CALLs can be sold when Volatality is high knowing volatality will be down in a month or two.
- can see recovery years like 2003 for S&P INDEX and see volatality and sell volatility based on Quarter results before for 2009 assuming 2009 corralles to 20003.

How to interpret historic volatility charts

usng options on futures to place or protect positions or hedges can provide tremendous advantages, including additional flexibility, leverage, income, and/or reduced cash-flow problems and performance requirements.

However, one must understand the dynamics of option trading and the various components that create premium value to benefit from the opportunities they offer. The three primary variables that determine the value of an option premium are (1) the relationship of the underlying futures contract to the option’s strike price, (2) the time remaining until expiration, and (3) volatility.

Option volatility charts presented in this publication portray the 15-y ear average historical volatility (the central line) for the futures contract. The dotted lines above and below are each at 1 Standard Deviation (STD). Historical volatility remained between these two STD lines 68% of the time but was found above the upper one 16% of the time and below the lower one 16% of the time during the last 15 years.

Seasonals

------------
The Best Choice in Seasonal and Cycles Trading Software: ( this AAPL example is Seasonal for Stocks )

One such trader is Kurt Sakaeda. I do not know Kurt, but I do know he has consistently won trading championships in the Robbin’s World Cup by using simple seasonal models. He has, as I recall, returned over 900% in some years using seasonals in the championship

Sakaeda, a data analyst, has developed a "Blue Book" of nearly 300 annual trade set-ups that cover all futures market segments. He suggests picking up on all his recommendations for optimal results. “It’s like riding a bicycle,” he says. “The faster you go the more stable you become. If you pick and choose positions, you will not have any diversity.”


asr: in TS it is easy to find out 'seasonal' pattern using this piece of TS code

Input:BS(-1),Stp(999),Mnth(1),Hold(14);
vars:BSe(1),Mnthe(9),holde(20),TrdDayofYear(189);
If next3rdfriday(0)=0 then value1=c;

{++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ENTRY AT EXPIRATION DAY ++++++++++++++++++++++++}
if BSe=1 and TrddayofYEar=0 and Month(d)=Mnthe and Next3rdFriday(0)=0 then buy next bar 1 contracts market;
if BSe=-1 and TrddayofYEar=0 and Month(d)=Mnthe and Next3rdFriday(0)=0 then sell short next bar 1 contracts market;
{the above line trades from expiration to expiration-- exit lines below will exit based on
a certain number of hold days (holde), exit at next expiration, or exit at stp % from entry }

{+++++++++++++++++++++++ ENTRY FOR TRADE DAY OF YEAR +++++++++++++++++++++}
if TrddayofYEar<>0 and BSe=1 and tdoy=TrdDayofYear then buy next bar 1 contracts market;
if TrddayofYEar<>0 and BSe=-1 and tdoy=TrdDayofYear then sell short next bar 1 contracts market;
{the above line trades from expiration to expiration-- exit lines below will exit based on
a certain number of hold days (holde), exit at next expiration, or exit at stp % from entry }

{++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ EXITS FOR LONG ENTRIES ++++++++++++++++++++++++++}
If marketposition=1 and c < entryprice-(value1*Stp) then sell this bar c;
If marketposition=1 and barssinceentry=Holde then sell this bar c;
if holde=-1 and next3rdfriday(0)=0 then sell this bar c;

{++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ EXITS FOR SHORT ENTRIES ++++++++++++++++++++++++++}
If marketposition=-1 and c < entryprice-(value1*Stp) then buytocover this bar c;
If marketposition=-1 and barssinceentry=Holde then buytocover this bar c;
if holde=-1 and next3rdfriday(0)=0 then buytocover this bar c;

Print(date,time,",",tdoy);

----------------------------





----
on MRCI performance results
see MRCI web site for 2008 performance and it gave all the years.
- performance % right is about 60% , got 270k profits in 2008 , but in march bigdraw down, there are years with 0% , but needs withstand big drawdown.
- certainly helps with direction in case of GOLD we see from 9/21 to +40 days it is down. if we get another analyst ( see GOLD heading) saying short GOLD then it adds as one more point of research.
- so they give about 15 out right trades and 15 spreads per month in ONLINE verison.
- if we get the yearly seasonal version then we get about 60 outright/20 spreads per commodity.
- we need to get these yearly report to catch and see what is the bias in each month , this info may be used in other trades .
-----
GLD chart : this seasonal worked for GOLD In 2009

for above gold see profit factor , for simplicity calc profit factor from point x wins
profit factor = 24 (avg.win pts) x 13 ( #wins ) / 12 (avg.loss pts) x 2 ( #loss )
profit factor = 24 (pts) x 13 / (12 x 2 ) = 13 wow. this is great Profit factor .

note: 1) look at worst equity also 2) this profit factor is with no STOP LOSS


Seasonal trading theory 1:
see in 2006 , 2008 look at worst drawdown of 6k , 4k
then they truned as porfits. so with this good proft factor cases entering DOUBLE contracts on those worst darw down days gives much better edge.
- if not future contracts ( due to high risk) from those 6k, 4k down positions , one can buy CALLS to minimize risk.


In these charts 0 means contract lowest, 100 means contract highest price - this is what is mentioned in charts some where I need to find and talk to Jerry etc.
------

This sample report
http://www.mrci.com/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=146

Nearly all markets — real estate, interest rates, fuel
oil, gasoline futures — are affected by various
fundamental forces, many of which are seasonal in
nature. Such forces as weather, fiscal calendars, European vacations and
specific characteristics of futures contracts (such as
delivery and expiration) tend to recur and influence, to
one degree or another, certain markets every year. As
any market or spread relationship responds to a series of
annually recurring factors, seasonal price patterns tend
to evolve.

Daily seasonal patterns, both the 15- and most recent 5-year, are derived from and a composite of historical
daily price activity in the specific contract, spread, or cash market. The numerical index to the right reflects a historical tendency to reach its seasonal high (100) orlow (0) at a given time.
( asr: what is given time ask Jerry )


"Pattern" implies a degree of predictability. Future prices move when anticipating change and adjust when that change is realized. When those changes are annual in nature, a recurring cycle of anticipation/realization evolves. This recurring phenomenon is intrinsic to the seasonal approach in trading, for it is designed to anticipate, enter, and capture recurrent trends as they emerge and exit as they are realized.

See Nice OIL, RBOB , Tresuary bills seasonal charts
--------------
Seasonal trading theroy 2
Natural Gas:
look at these Nat. gas seasonal Dates, even though in 2009 Nat. Gas is in big DOWN turn in 2009 , following these historic seasional dates indicate best exit dates are by 4/15 - to 4/21 , so even in down trend in 2009 after 4/15 APR 15 much further down in Nat. Gas . so one can enter SHORT around 4/15 even in 2009 ( correlated theroy )

5 Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-June 2/25 4/15 100 13 0 13 2862
6 Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-July 2/25 4/21 92 12 1 13 3108
7 Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-May 3/14 4/21 92 12 1 13 2638

UNG chart -- to verify 2009 4/21 Short theory above
------------
Report scheduling -- good they gave for 2 weeks

Historical nearby contract prices
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/charts.php


Seasonal Trade Review Sample

Seasonal Spread Review


MRCI's Spread Tutorial

MRCI's Inter-Market Correlations(prev 160 trading days)
- Sep 17, 2009


Scenario analysis -- great reserach

2008 Hypothetical Seasonal Results by Complex & More.
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/hypo08.pdf

---

Commodity Charts hisorical

following are Monthly Nearby Commodity Charts:
Note: all these are near by month future contract prices so they may slightly vary from actual index/future spot price.

Crude OIL:


S&P near month contract:


EURO( vs. dollar)


GOLD



Soybean OIL

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Trading Business / Trading System

Developing a trading system that fits your personality

asr: I have saved a 'Trading business plan in google docs , check there '

Introduction

After seeing the number of excellent discussion threads on FF, I thought I'd give this a shot. I've been trading for 16 years (full-time for the last three) in the equities & equity options markets and now Forex as well for the last four. I got the trading bug from working in the financial industry designing and developing computer systems and often working in direct contact with traders in the electrifying atmosphere of the trading floor. I started out knowing nothing about trading and initially got my rear-end kicked a number of times until I realized I had to treat this endeavor like a business if I wanted to have a chance in the long run. Why would an otherwise sane person step into a ring with a black-belt thinking they've got a chance past a lucky quick shot (read successful single trade)? When you take a position in a market, there are plenty of pros out there who will be happy to take your money if you don't know what you're doing.

Today, trading comes "fairly" easily as do the profits. And while I've improved as a trader, the number of inquiries from people regarding my trading style and how I develop systems has increased as well. I hope to cover some of these questions here as it relates to (mostly) system development.

Most everything I've learned about trading, I picked up from someone else at some point and then adapted into my own style of trading and I'd like to now help others. "A candle loses nothing lighting another candle" as the saying goes if I may be so bold as to assume I've got something worthwhile to pass on to others. For starters, I've learned (the hard way) that the success formula looks something like: Quality Input + Hard Work + Discipline + Some Originality = Success in trading -- or any other business. While this may be old hat for the seasoned traders on FF, if you're just starting out, be aware that no matter how much you learn from other people, no one will be able to do the hard work for you, especially in the key areas of trading psychology and discipline -- and one could argue the latter is an integral part of one’s psychology as well although I like to separate the two out for practical purposes.

So, what I'd like to do here is first go over some background info on trading itself (as I understand it) to give this topic a proper backdrop without which even the "best" trading system will fail, so hang in there for a bit. Then we can discuss what goes into developing a trading system that suits your trading style, i.e. something you're comfortable with and know inside out that you can then ultimately stick with in the market(s).


Thoughts on the business of trading
Let me cut to the chase as to what trading is -- or at least what I believe it to be. It's often said that the three most important things in real estate are location, location, location. In a similar fashion, the top three criteria a trader needs to master to become successful are discipline, discipline, discipline. This doesn't sit well with some of the folks I've tried to coach in the past. What everyone is after are the killer setups and/or the magic indicator. The forums abound with people starting out in trading suffering from “indicatoritis”: everyone's after the one indicator (or combination of indictors) that will tell them exactly when to buy and let them know when the very top of a bull run has been reached so that they can be the first to get out of a position as well. So, my message is often met with disappointment as the word discipline sometimes makes some would-be trader uncomfortable. Let me expand on what I mean by discipline as it relates to trading:

1. The discipline to do one's homework before putting money on the line. This includes learning about the tools (trading s/w, indicators, trendlines, Fibanocci #'s, etc.) even if you choose not to use some of these. There’s something valuable to be found in each of these and they will help you get a better feel for the markets.
2. The discipline to find out what market(s) to trade. Bonds, equities, forex, futures, ...? or some form of derivatives (e.g. options)? Or maybe multiple markets? Each has distinct advantages/disadvantages and idiosyncrasies you need to be aware of.
3. The discipline to find the timeframe(s) that's suited to your lifestyle and temperament. Daily charts behave differently from 5 min charts and your trading style will likely have to be different as well.
4. The discipline to find a trading system or methodology one knows inside out and is very comfortable with. Ideally, it should be custom built so as to suit the trader's personality (more on this later). That said, there are some great systems out there for sale or even for free that might do the trick for you.
5. The discipline to follow one's trading rules to get in and out of the market(s).
6. The discipline to learn about money management and position sizing (e.g. how many shares/lots should I buy/sell?)
7. Last, but not least, the discipline to keep an extensive trading journal.

If you do your homework, you'll come to have a healthy respect for the markets which will save you from reckless trading. You'll also likely start to treat trading as a business, which you should. All things being equal, profits will then come fairly easily. If you lack in any of these areas, you'll keep on struggling and wonder why you're not getting ahead. What's often frustrating in trading is that what you think is holding you back might in fact have little to do with the actual problem (a big topic on its own). If you're stuck for a long time or if you just want to speed the learning process along, a mentor can be of invaluable help.

So, how do you acquire the necessary discipline? In one word: determination. In my case, it came from watching my account balance going down continually when I first started all those years ago until the pain of losing money became so great that I decided to learn whatever I had to in order to become a successful trader. At the outset, I thought this would take me about 6 months. In reality, it took me three years of tribulations and lots of sweat to become profitable -- and I'm still learning every day. That’s the kind of determination it takes to succeed but it would appear that most unfortunately give up too quickly maybe because at the outset they didn't develop a proper plan -- a proper business plan.

Business Plan
So, if you have a good handle on points 1 through 3 from the last post, you should have some of the basic components for your business plan. Put down on paper what you know so far. This is a powerful little exercise that will add clarity in your mind as to your ultimate goal of becoming a successful trader and ensure you have a solid trading plan. Later, once you have an actual trading system in hand, you can add it to your business plan.

What should go into your business plan? You can google the subject for more details (for example “The Trading Plan by Linda Bradford Raschke “ and “Kane Trading on The Difference Between a 'Plan for a Trade' and the 'Trading Plan'” amongst others) and I won’t repeat what these and other excellent articles cover, but at least the following should be in an early draft of your business plan at this stage:

1. System goals. What are the criteria for the system you’re going to select/create? Yes, I know: “It should make lots of money”, but we’re after more details here. What kind of a system are you looking for? For example, how often should it give you a signal, what should the ideal profit factor and recovery factor be? how about winning %? In other words, what would an ideal (and realistic) system look like? Lots to think about here.
2. What markets? what timeframe? Why?
3. While the above cover portions of the trading plan, in my mind a business plan should also make a business case: i.e. why choose this business? what makes you believe the time invested will be worthwhile vs. starting another business you may ultimately be more suited for?

1. and 2. should help narrow down the list of the myriad of potential systems out there. I'm trying to squeeze a lot of information in just a few lines, so if there are any questions, please let me know.

Another key component in determining what trading system to choose: your personality.

Your personality
Coming back to a point I alluded to earlier. Your system needs to suit your personality. While I believe that most people have to change some of their habits to become successful traders, we still all have different personalities, different strengths and weaknesses and we will behave differently within a same market -- that’s what makes a market after all. The key here is “know thyself”.

Are you aware of your own tendencies and idiosyncrasies? I would recommend taking a personality test of some sort if you’re unsure, ideally geared towards analyzing your behaviors as it relates to trading. Knowing you're INTP for example isn't specific enough. Better find out now than when you’ve drained your account and realize you need to go back and do this. As the old saying goes (credited to George Goodman afaik), “If you don’t know who you are, the stock market [or any other] is an expensive place to find out.”

I recently took such a test with the Van Tharp institute (another excellent source of info btw) during a beta test and the final test might be available online now. Even if it costs a bit of money to take this or another test, do yourself the favor and find out what your strengths and weakness are. This is one of the best investments you can make. You may even find out about some weakness that you weren't consciously aware of. And that will help you tremendously.

Journal Logging of Trades
Before you think I'm a stickler for the kind of work the last few posts require, I used to be the type of guy that tends to say “yeah, whatever...” skipping over the type of stuff I wrote above just to get to the meat of the topic, thinking I'm smart enough, know myself enough etc that I don’t need to do any of this. The fact is what it would be very hard for anyone to keep all this information above straight in just one's mind, especially at the level of detail these topics require. Writing things down allows you to cross-reference ideas, give them clarity and go into much more detail than would otherwise be possible. Think of it as a blue-print. If properly designed, the journey to achieving your goals will be much simpler and pleasant. Ultimately, it’s a time saver even though it doesn’t seem so at the outset. How I wish I would have known this a few years ago, but that’s another story...


Picking a system - 1. Personal Criteria
If you’ve done the exercises above, you’ve covered one of the dimensions necessary to find a suitable trading method. At the risk of repeating myself because this is a key point: whatever system you pick, it has to fit your personality / preferences in the following areas so that you’ll actually be able to trade the system especially during tough market conditions:

* Type of system: I’ve only encountered three in my career: 1) trend following (sometimes trend anticipating), 2) volatility based and 3) breakout based (or combinations of these. if anyone knows of any other type, please let me know) If you’re new to trading, you may not know yet which to pick and that’s fine. Again, try to get exposure to all three to find which you’re drawn to and have an idea what methodologies other traders are using. For example, expect larger drawdowns in trend following systems. If there’s interest, I can provide further information on advantages and disadvantages of each type of system in a subsequent post.
* How often the system trades, sometimes referred to as the Opportunity Factor.
asr: one way define it as #time/month => for OIL Oppertinity factor= 2/month for good LOW risk trades

* How smooth should be equity curve be? A more erratic (volatile) one may be more profitable, but will you be able to trade it? This also ties into the drawdown. What is the avg (and max) drawdown of the system you’re considering using? Are you comfortable with that number?
* Winning %. Be careful here. I’ve seen many systems tout a high percentage but that number in meaningless if you don’t know what the average winner will bring you and the average loser cost you. Keep in mind that the Expectancy (profit per avg trade) is equal to the (Winning % × avg win) – (Losing % × avg loss). So, is a higher number better? Overall yes, as long as you’re comparing systems over the same (and long enough) time period.
* If you’re trading Forex, you probably don’t have any market direction preference, but be aware that some systems do.

Picking a system - 2. System Requirements
Some absolute system properties, no matter which you choose:

* Profit Factor: this is the system's Gross Profit divided by Gross Loss. Look for systems that have a Profit Factor of 2 or higher. (from Wealth-Lab’s help)
* Recovery Factor: it is equal to the absolute value of Net Profit divided by Max Drawdown. Recovery Factor should typically be larger than 1. A healthy Recovery Factor is an indication that a system can overcome a drawdown. (from Wealth-Lab’s help)
* Payoff Ratio: this is the absolute value of the system's average profit per trade divided by the average loss per trade. Unless the system has a particularly high Win/Loss ratio, we look for high Payoff Ratios. (from Wealth-Lab’s help)
* For more experienced traders another question is: should the system be 100% mechanical? Or do you want to allow for some discretion as well? If so how much and under what conditions? For example: because I’ve been looking at charts for a while, I have developed a feel for the markets I trade and the system I use in one of my accounts is based on MAs and their interpretation is often subjective. This is a hybrid system that works fine and I use it when I happen to be at the computer trading live.


So, in short, the system has to be sound, in other words an existing should have been profitable over the long run in whatever market(s) you choose to trade. Some people say the testing period should include at least x number of time periods, others x number of trades. My own inclination for e.g. a new daily trading system I devise is 5 years of daily data plus stress testing before roll-out.

Analysis
Now that we’ve had an overview of the different aspects and types of systems, let’s come back to the personality characteristics. Our own personality analysis should cover key areas such as:

1. objectives
2. personal strengths
3. personal weaknesses
4. beliefs about the market
5. values



If you have trouble coming up with a list for these categories, try doing a “brain dump”. Write down 100 brief statements about e.g. your values as quickly as you can without giving thought to grammar. After a while, you should see patterns emerge.

Also, for more help, have a read through the myriads of articles by Brett Steenbarger as well as his book; he’s another leading authority in the area of trading psychology along with the Van Tharp institute I mentioned earlier. There also used to be a brief personality test on his website.

Let’s take a simplified version of what a fictitious trader has come up with and try to determine what kind of system we could build or recommend for him/her.

1)Objectives


* To trade once a day
* To grow the account at a steady pace achieving 20% return per annum
* To not take undue risk (even at the expense of foregoing maximum profit)

2)Strengths

* Strong analytical skills
* Highly motivated (greatly interested in the subject of trading)
* Flexible in the type of trading system (or combination of trading systems)

3)Weaknesses (or “challenges” if you prefer)

* Tendency to jump ahead of trades
* Sometimes make being “right” a stronger motivator than getting out of a losing trade
* Often close a winning trade prematurely out of fear of losing potential profit

4)Beliefs

* The market moves in discernable long-term cycles.

5)Values

* Money is a limited resource. It should be dealt with carefully.


Note: a real analysis should be longer and more in-depth but for simplicity sake, I’ve kept this list brief.

What kind of system could we propose for this trader?

----------------
How to Develop a Profitable Trading System
by Rockwell Trading




Trading Systems Coding: System Design -- good page here

In this article we will explain to you how to develop a profitable trading system in five steps:

Step 1: Select a market and a timeframe
Step 2: Define entry rules
Step 3: Define exit rules
Step 4: Evaluate your system
Step 5: Improving the system


Let's take a closer look at these steps.

Step 1: Select a market and a timeframe
Every market and every timeframe can be traded with a system. But if you want to look at 50 different futures markets and 6 major timeframes (e.g. 5min, 10min, 15min, 30min, 60min and daily), then you need to evaluate 300 possible options. Here are some hints on how to limit your choices:

· Though you can trade every futures markets, I recommend that you stick to the electronic markets (e.g. e-mini S&P and other indices, Treasury Bonds and Notes, Currencies, etc). Usually these markets are very liquid, and you won't have a problem entering and exiting a trade. Another advantage of electronic markets is lower commissions: Expect to pay at least half the commissions you pay on non-electronic markets. Sometimes the difference can be as high as 75%.

· When you select a smaller timeframes (less than 60min) your average profit per trade is usually comparably low. On the other hand you get more trading opportunities. When trading on a larger timeframe your profits per trade will be bigger, but you will have less trading opportunities. It's up to you to decide which timeframe suits you best.

· Smaller timeframes mean smaller profits, but usually smaller risk, too. When you are starting with a small trading account, then you might want to select a small timeframe to make sure that you are not overtrading your account.
Most profitable trading systems use larger timeframes like daily and weekly, but be prepared for less trading action and bigger drawdowns.

Step 2: Define entry rules
Let's simplify the myths of "entry rules": Basically there are 2 different kinds of entry setups:
· Trend-following: When prices are moving up, you buy, and when prices are going down, you sell.
· Swing-trading: When prices are trading at an extreme (e.g. upper band of a channel), you sell, and you try to catch the small move while prices are moving back into "normalcy". The same applies for selling.


In my opinion swing trading is actually one of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet. By contrast, trend trading offers greater profit potential if a trader is able to catch a major market trend of weeks or months, but few are the traders with sufficient discipline to hold a position for that period of time without getting distracted.

Most indicators that you will find in your charting software belong to one of these two categories: You have either indicators for identifying trends (e.g. Moving Averages) or indicators that define overbought or oversold situations and therefore offer you a trade setup for a short term swing trade.

So don't become confused by all the possibilities of entering a trade. Just make sure that you understand why you are using a certain indicator or what the indicator is measuring. An example of a simple swing trading strategy can be found in the next chapter.

Step 3: Define exit rules
Let's keep it simple here, too: There are two different exit rules you want to apply:
· Stop Loss Rules to protect your capital and
· Profit Taking Exits to realize your profits

Both exit rules can be expressed in four ways:
· A fixed dollar amount (e.g. $1,000)
· A percentage of the current price (e.g. 1% of the entry price)
· A percentage of the volatility (e.g. 50% of the average daily movement) or
· A time stop (e.g. exit after 3 days)


I don't recommend using a fixed dollar amount, because markets are too different. For example, natural gas changes an average of a few thousand dollars per day per contract; however, Eurodollars change an average of a few hundred dollars a day per contract. You need to balance and normalize this difference when developing a trading system and testing it on different markets. That's why you should always use percentages for stops and profit targets (e.g. 1% stop) or a volatility stop instead of a fixed dollar amount.

A time stop gets you out of a trade if it is not moving in any direction, therefore freeing your capital for other trades.

Step 4: Evaluate your system
The first figure to look for is the net profit. Obviously you want your system to generate profits. But don't be frustrated when during the development stage your trading system shows a loss; try to reverse your entry signals. On our website www.rockwelltrading.com you already learned that trading is a zero sum game: So if you are going long at a certain price level, and you lose, then try to go short instead. Many times this is the easiest way to turn a losing system into a winning one.

The next figure you want to look at is the average profit per trade. Make sure this number is greater than slippage and commissions, and that it makes your trading worthwhile. Trading is all about risk and reward, and you want to make sure you get a decent reward for your risk.

Take a look at the Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss). This will tell you how many dollars you are likely to win for every dollar you lose. The higher the profit factor the better the system. A system should have a profit factor of 1.5 or more, but watch out when you see profit factors above 3.0, because it might be that you over-optimized the system.Here are some more characteristics you might want to consider besides the net profit of a system:

· Winning percentage
Many profitable trading systems achieve a nice net profit with a rather small winning percentage, sometimes even below 30%. These systems follow the principle "Cut your losses short and let your profits run". However, YOU need to decide whether you can stand 7 losers and only 3 winners in 10 trades. If you want to be "right" most of the time, then you should pick a system with a high winning percentage.

· Number of Trades per Month
Do you need daily action? If you want to see something happening every day, then you should pick a trading system with a high number of trades per month. Many profitable trading systems generate only 2-3 trades per month, but if you are not patient enough to wait for it, then you should select a system with a higher trading frequency.

· Average Time in Trade
Some people get really nervous when they are in a trade. I have heard of people who can't even sleep at night when they have an open position. If that's you, then you should make sure that the average time in a trade is as short as possible. You might want to choose a system that does not hold any positions overnight.

· Maximum Drawdown
A famous trader once said: "If you want your system to double or triple your account, you should expect a drawdown of up to 30% on your way to trading riches." Not every trader can stand a 30% drawdown
. Look at the maximum drawdown the system produced so far, and double it. If you can stand this drawdown, then you found the right system. Why doubling? Remember: your worst drawdown is always ahead of you.

asr: this is true in OIL, we need to withstand 15-20% darwdown so that means for $10,000 account $2k draw down so for $10k account we can only trade 1 mini crude so that is $1k loss per trade.

· Most consecutive losses
The amount of most consecutive losses has a huge impact on your trading, especially when you are using certain types of money management techniques. Five or six consecutive losses can cause you a lot of trouble when using an aggressive money management.
In addition this number will help you to determine whether you have enough discipline to trade the system: Will you still trade the system after you have experienced 10 losses in a row? It's not unusual for a profitable trading system to have 10-12 losses in a row.

Step 5: Improving your system
There is a difference between "improving" and "curve-fitting" a system. You can improve your system by testing different exit methods: If you are using a fixed stop, try a trailing stop instead. Add a time stop and evaluate the results again. Don't look only at the net profit; look also at the profit factor, average profit per trade and maximum drawdown. Many times you will see that the net profit slightly decreases when you add different stops, but the other figures might improve dramatically.

Don't fall into the trap of over-optimizing: You can eliminate almost all losers by adding enough rules. Example: If you see that on Tuesdays you had more losers than on the other weekdays, you might be tempted to add a "filter" that prevents your system from entering trades on Tuesdays. Next you find that in January you had much worse results than in other months, so you add a filter that enters trades only from February – December. You add more and more filters to avoid losses, and eventually you end up with a trading rule that I saw recently:

IF FVE > -1 And Regression Slope (Close , 35) / Close.35 * 100 > -.35 And Regression Slope (Close , 35) / Close.35 * 100 < .4 And Regression Slope (Close , 70) / Close.70 * 100 > -.4 And Regression Slope (Close , 70) / Close.70 * 100 < .4 And Regression Slope (Close , 170) / Close.170 * 100 > -.2 And MACD Diff (Close , 12 , 26 , 9) > -.003 And Not Tuesday And Not DayOfMonth = 12 and not Month = August and Time > 9:30 ...
Though you eliminated all possibilities of losing (in the past) and this trading system is now producing fantastic profits, it's very unlikely that it will continue to do so when it hits reality.

Conclusion
Developing a trading system can be tricky, but it's by far not as complicated as many vendors make you think. The purpose of this eBook is to give you an overview about the different steps of trading system development. Make sure to apply the "10 Power Principles of Successful Trading Systems" when developing and evaluating a trading system:

http://www.rockwelltrading.com/trading_system_step_2.htm