S&P mistakes

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gold mistake 4

My problem with using in GOLD short on 11/23/08 ( 23:00 hours NY time ) going SHORT at 790 based on VP is
a) VP showed Nural index 1 , the day before and that day also ( thursday, friday for next day). Ignored this and next 2 below.
a2) Triple Expoential graphs shows clear LONG side
a3) Predicted short/medium/long term diff all 3 agreeing for LONG that is increasing from previous day
B) I ignored the Nural 1 and went short ( after looking some other reports of gold over shot so some profit taking )
c) and mainly folled by VP next day high/low of 790-775 , so went short at 790 assuming I am shorting that the 'next day predicted high;. But the acutal thing is If I am on LONG I can only Use the PLow for my protective STOP as shown above

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crude oil mistakes 3
1. entered Long at 60.9 on Vantage advice when next day predicted low/high is shown 61.5/63 .
2. on Asia markets ( US night), it was all low below 60.5 , with morning net shows 300 cut
3. continue whole next day US market I holded Long based on Vantage advice again shows good low/high , down by 1000 , night nothing happened , total cut to 2900
4. continued 2 nd day night , it came close to 58.25 , my limit 58.9
5. on the morning 11 a.m EST , energy dept. crude inventory report due, so on a small rally I got rid of it at net cut of 2000
6. evening third day great Dow rally 500 points , reached crude 59.45 , I got rid of at 57.85

what I did is good, but only thing is missed Oppertunity that is , I should have followed dow drop got S&P to 815 , should have bought Dec 08 60 future options costed only 5.0 that is 500/contract , when up it truned to 1500

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SP mistake 2
11/17 monday S&P early close
- took position on friday clsoe at 855 , after looking 'option close week' gained many months in the past.
- monday saw drop up to 700, so panicked and placed limit with 300 cut , it executed later
- VP showed a possibility of at leaset no loss, should have watited since it is only monday , it came to 500 profit later


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SP mistake 1
1. after NOv 4 th rally (990), on 5 th did a LONG around 970 assuming it go up to 990 again
2. Wednesday/thurday it dropped to 900 expecting a friday unemployment report ( expecting 300,000 worst some says on CNBC )
3. so 2 day drop of 70 points => 3500
4. I saw friday morning unemployment figure came as 6.5% instead of expecting 6.1 in 'CNN late breaking news' so closed the LONG at 910 ( bought at 970 ) taking hit of 3500
5. on Friday it raised to 935 since the worst is over , so I got early
6. mistake 2: friday at close trading around 925 , did a short , closed this on Monday early morning at 945 , another 1200 hit. monday it dropped again to 910.
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11/17 crude contract expire
- hightower report showed sentiment is bear, and VP also showed bear no big upside
- should have taken short at 57 over week end for close of 55.5
- should also have taken another 57 short on monday morning .. for 1.5 points gain ...
- find the 'path of least resistance' , you can only get these state for sure few times/month, after getting assurance from a) VP data b) hightower report , take postion.

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see S&P mean traget 12/31/2008 that is 1120 , so index with 1000 this early with definatly gives back since you have 1.5 months to reach just +100 after 100 following the rule below.
In bear market , sell on big counter-trend rallies (Bruce )