GOLD FORECAST

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asr: GOLD vs. silver 5 year return, interesting after losing 30% in 2008 , it gained 50% in 2009 so from DEC 2008 to DEC 2009 the gain is 80% wow.
- see the chart pattern , after out performing GOLD 3 years in a row , it lagged gold 2 years in a row , then again 80% in 2009 .
- good chart patterns to watch in hardassets , it seems in 2009 JAN it is is less risk trade to buy silver given it lagged gold in 3 years in a row

asr: have this kind of charts in JAN and JULY of every year ( once in 6 months ) for all hard asserts like copper, stockindex, GOLD, sivler, crude oil, oil cracks, agri soy bean/oii/meal vs. corn see if you get some good trade ideas like those silver/gold patterns . may find similar in soy/corn , copper vs. xxx

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asr: this is 11/11/09 article
Mr. K reported same, seems got it from Realmoney.com

Gold prices could reach as much as $1,200 a troy ounce by the end of the year if ten-year U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields, or TIPS, remain at current weak levels, Goldman Sachs said Tuesday.

The bank noted the continued weakness in real interest rates continues to provide strong support to gold prices over the medium term.

"The yield on the 10-year U.S. TIPS remains under 1.50%, which continues to suggest upside risk to our $960/oz forecast," said the bank, which sees gold at $960/oz on a three-, six- and 12-month basis. "Should 10-year TIPS yields remain at these levels, we would expect gold price to move to $1,150-$1,200/oz."

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Gold Price Won’t Drop Below $1,000 an Ounce Again, Faber Says
asr: this is 11/10/09 while gold is at 1100 , this is bloomberg article , so some credentials for the forecaster. So central banks ( US etc..) are expected to print more so more inflation so he expects to raise.

“We will not see less than the $1,000 level again,” Faber said at a conference today in London. “Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.”

China will keep buying resources including gold, he said.

“Its demand for commodities will go up and up and up,” he added. “Emerging economies will grow at the fastest pace.
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Goldman Sachs lifts gold price forecast to $1,000/oz

asr: 2/5/2009 article (see link) , so from 2/5 gold incresed from 900 to 970 ish then maintained at 900 level for some time and reached 1000. so Gold man forecast of 1000 ( from 900 ) in 3 months time is not bad .

SINGAPORE, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Investment bank Goldman Sachs
(GS.N) raised its forecast for the price of gold to
reach $1,000 an ounce in the next three months from its
previous forecast of $700 due to rising investor demand for
safe haven assets.

"The gold price rally has been driven by surging demand for
gold in all forms: physical gold, exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
and futures contracts as investors seek 'a safe store of value'
amid the financial distress and inflation risks," it said in a
report.

It also noted that a strong relationship between the price
of gold in U.S. dollars and the exchange rate of the dollar
agsinst other currencies has begun to break down. Gold was
trading at $903.15 an ounce by 0038 GMT, down $1.70 from New
York's notional close.
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Gold was down some 5.5% last week on options expiry, year end profit taking and tentative dollar strength and oil weakness.

asr: this GOld man forecast of SELL GOLD in 12/2007 did not do well , gold raised next 6 months ..
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is recommending that investors get out of gold and lock in their gains just two months after it suggested they buy. Goldman Sachs recommends in its top 10 trades list for 2008 that investors short gold next year. However, there appears to be dissent in the Goldman camp as only a few days ago another Goldman analyst, Oscar Cabrera, said that the average price of gold will increase to $800 an ounce in 2008, up from $687 in 2007.

asr: good snaptshot to see where prices are in 12/2007