(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)
By Spencer Swartz
LONDON -- Energy investment is "plunging" because of the recession, paving the way for
oil-price surges within three years, the International Energy Agency warned in a new report.
The Paris-based watchdog for the world's major energy-consuming nations said that in recent
months, oil companies and investors have canceled or postponed about $170 billion of investment
equivalent to roughly two million barrels a day in future oil supply.
An additional 4.2 million barrels a day in future oil-supply capacity has been delayed by at
least 18 months as companies slash spending.
The study will be presented to energy ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized
nations this weekend in Rome and to G-8 leaders at a July summit.
The report highlights the growing risk that the crude supply -- though currently abundant
because of weak global consumption -- could tighten quickly once the world economy gets back on
its feet.
"What we're saying is that come around 2012 the impact of this big recession on oil
investment and capacity, if current trends continue, could be severe with much higher oil
prices," said IEA chief economist Fatih Birol. The IEA is funded by the world's 28 biggest
energy-consumers, notably the U.S. and Japan. It has long argued for more aggressive investment
in building oil capacity.
The report, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, also notes that most delayed or
canceled projects are located in politically stable non-OPEC nations like Canada. Those
resources take more years to develop than crude oil found in the members of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is typically easier and cheaper to get out of the ground.
The rate at which world oil demand recovers remains a critical -- and unknowable -- variable.
Several governments in the developed world are advancing energy-efficiency measures, which
could temper the rise in oil prices as demand recovers.
The IEA estimates oil demand this year will fall by 3%, the sharpest drop in about 30 years,
to about 83 million barrels a day.
Many analysts, however, say they believe crude prices in the next few years could again soar
over the $100-a-barrel mark seen last year because of two factors: relatively rapid energy
consumption growth in emerging markets like China and the fact that much of the world's
easy-to-tap oil is already discovered.
Benchmark crude prices on Tuesday closed up 62 cents at $59.65 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Through criticized at times for missing some industry developments, the IEA is still seen as
one of the most reliable energy statisticians in the industry, in part due to data from its
member countries.
The agency said Canada, with the world's second-biggest proven oil reserves after Saudi
Arabia, has been worst hit by falling investment.
Around 15 Canadian oil-sands projects involving 1.7 million barrels a day in production
capacity and $150 billion of investment have been suspended or canceled. Oil sands yield a
viscous and expensive-to-produce crude.
But oil sands usually need at least $55 to $60-a-barrel crude prices to be produced
profitably. Oil has traded below that level since late last year.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Tracking India's stock rally with ETFs and ETNs
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Global investors were greeted with a massive rally in India's stock market to start the week after the Congress Party-led alliance scored a victory in the emerging market country's general election.
Investors are betting in a big way that the ruling party's win can provide a boost to India's economy, and in their haste to snap up shares they triggered market circuit-breakers Monday as stock benchmarks surged to double-digit percentage gains.
"I think the market still has the potential to go up by another 10% to 15%," said Deven Choksey, managing director at K.R. Choksey Shares & Securities in Mumbai. See earlier coverage.
For investors who don't have the time or means to purchase individual Indian stocks, exchange-traded funds and notes can provide a broad-based, indexed approach for catching a prolonged rally.
The Indian-stock ETFs and ETNs enjoyed gains of more than 20% on Monday as the U.S.-listed funds joined in the buying frenzy. Exchange-traded portfolios following overseas market trade in the U.S. even while the underlying markets are closed due to time-zone differences. As such, some traders use them as a rough gauge of fair value after international markets cease trading.
Choices include Barclays iPath MSCI Index Index ETN /quotes/comstock/13*!inp/quotes/nls/inp (INP 48.19, -0.84, -1.71%) , PowerShares India Portfolio /quotes/comstock/13*!pin/quotes/nls/pin (PIN 17.74, -0.44, -2.42%) and WisdomTree India Earnings Fund /quotes/comstock/13*!epi/quotes/nls/epi (EPI 16.88, -0.28, -1.63%) . Also, WisdomTree Dreyfus Indian Rupee Fund /quotes/comstock/13*!icn/quotes/nls/icn (ICN 24.28, +0.30, +1.25%) follows the local currency, while First Trust ISE ChIndia Index Fund /quotes/comstock/13*!fni/quotes/nls/fni (FNI 15.72, -0.07, -0.44%) blends Indian and Chinese stocks in a single wrapper.
The Barclays product is an ETN, which means unlike an ETF, it carries issuer credit risk. The Barclays iPath MSCI Index ETN is listed on the NYSE Arca and has more than $500 million in total assets.
At the end of April, the portfolio had 59 stocks, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. Top holdings were Reliance Industries, Infosys Technologies, ICICI Bank, Housing Development Finance Corp. and HDFC Bank. Not including Monday's surge, the ETN was up about 25% so far in 2009, but was off more than 45% over the trailing 12 months.
The PowerShares India Portfolio is an ETF launched in March of 2008. The tracking index is designed as a broad gauge of stocks listed on India's Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.78%, and since it trades like an individual stock, it can be sold short. Its largest sector holdings are energy, at nearly 29%, followed by information technology and financials.
/quotes/comstock/13*!pin/quotes/nls/pin PIN 17.74, -0.44, -2.42%
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WisdomTree Investments Inc. /quotes/comstock/11i!wsdt (WSDT 1.15, 0.00, 0.00%) offers a pair of India-themed ETFs. The WisdomTree India Earnings Fund weights individual stocks by their earnings yield, rather than market capitalization. It levies fees of 0.88%, and the portfolio has risen almost 23% for the year-to-date period through Monday, according to Morningstar.
Meanwhile, WisdomTree also oversees a currency ETF pegged to the Indian rupee. With an expense ratio of 0.45%, it seeks to give investors a yield comparable to local money-market rates available to foreign investors. It also provides exposure to the movement of the rupee against the U.S. greenback.
However, WisdomTree points out that the ETF is not a money market fund and isn't required to maintain a constant share price. Some U.S. money market funds "broke the buck," or fell below a net asset value of $1, during the credit crisis.
WisdomTree Dreyfus Indian Rupee Fund gained nearly 3% on Monday and hit a session high of $24.58 -- its 52-week high is $25.99.
Investors are betting in a big way that the ruling party's win can provide a boost to India's economy, and in their haste to snap up shares they triggered market circuit-breakers Monday as stock benchmarks surged to double-digit percentage gains.
"I think the market still has the potential to go up by another 10% to 15%," said Deven Choksey, managing director at K.R. Choksey Shares & Securities in Mumbai. See earlier coverage.
For investors who don't have the time or means to purchase individual Indian stocks, exchange-traded funds and notes can provide a broad-based, indexed approach for catching a prolonged rally.
The Indian-stock ETFs and ETNs enjoyed gains of more than 20% on Monday as the U.S.-listed funds joined in the buying frenzy. Exchange-traded portfolios following overseas market trade in the U.S. even while the underlying markets are closed due to time-zone differences. As such, some traders use them as a rough gauge of fair value after international markets cease trading.
Choices include Barclays iPath MSCI Index Index ETN /quotes/comstock/13*!inp/quotes/nls/inp (INP 48.19, -0.84, -1.71%) , PowerShares India Portfolio /quotes/comstock/13*!pin/quotes/nls/pin (PIN 17.74, -0.44, -2.42%) and WisdomTree India Earnings Fund /quotes/comstock/13*!epi/quotes/nls/epi (EPI 16.88, -0.28, -1.63%) . Also, WisdomTree Dreyfus Indian Rupee Fund /quotes/comstock/13*!icn/quotes/nls/icn (ICN 24.28, +0.30, +1.25%) follows the local currency, while First Trust ISE ChIndia Index Fund /quotes/comstock/13*!fni/quotes/nls/fni (FNI 15.72, -0.07, -0.44%) blends Indian and Chinese stocks in a single wrapper.
The Barclays product is an ETN, which means unlike an ETF, it carries issuer credit risk. The Barclays iPath MSCI Index ETN is listed on the NYSE Arca and has more than $500 million in total assets.
At the end of April, the portfolio had 59 stocks, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. Top holdings were Reliance Industries, Infosys Technologies, ICICI Bank, Housing Development Finance Corp. and HDFC Bank. Not including Monday's surge, the ETN was up about 25% so far in 2009, but was off more than 45% over the trailing 12 months.
The PowerShares India Portfolio is an ETF launched in March of 2008. The tracking index is designed as a broad gauge of stocks listed on India's Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.78%, and since it trades like an individual stock, it can be sold short. Its largest sector holdings are energy, at nearly 29%, followed by information technology and financials.
/quotes/comstock/13*!pin/quotes/nls/pin PIN 17.74, -0.44, -2.42%
30
20
10
0
09
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S
A
WisdomTree Investments Inc. /quotes/comstock/11i!wsdt (WSDT 1.15, 0.00, 0.00%) offers a pair of India-themed ETFs. The WisdomTree India Earnings Fund weights individual stocks by their earnings yield, rather than market capitalization. It levies fees of 0.88%, and the portfolio has risen almost 23% for the year-to-date period through Monday, according to Morningstar.
Meanwhile, WisdomTree also oversees a currency ETF pegged to the Indian rupee. With an expense ratio of 0.45%, it seeks to give investors a yield comparable to local money-market rates available to foreign investors. It also provides exposure to the movement of the rupee against the U.S. greenback.
However, WisdomTree points out that the ETF is not a money market fund and isn't required to maintain a constant share price. Some U.S. money market funds "broke the buck," or fell below a net asset value of $1, during the credit crisis.
WisdomTree Dreyfus Indian Rupee Fund gained nearly 3% on Monday and hit a session high of $24.58 -- its 52-week high is $25.99.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Over 60 per cent of India's 1.1 billion population are aged below 25.
Over 60 per cent of India's 1.1 billion population are aged below 25. Empowerment for youth has been Rahul Gandhi's buzzword and immediately after the election results were announced he said it was a victory for young people and the poor, a vote for inclusive governance.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Odds Maker / TradeIdeas
asr: a) the author talks about tool 'Odds Maker' from 'TradeIdeas' company , since author mentions it , Odds Maker seems useful tool.
b) use of stop loss resulted in net small gains compared to 'No stops', echoing my own 'no stops' philosophy .
But what if stop losses consistently minimize the profit potential of promising trade setups?
http://www.trade-ideas.com/OddsMaker/
In the Trading Psychology Weblog the past couple of days, I've taken a look at the Odds Maker program from Trade Ideas as a way of establishing market regimes. You can think of regimes as the set of rules that the market has been playing by over the recent past. The Trade Ideas program screens the market for various patterns; Odds Maker tells you if those patterns would have been profitable if held for user-defined periods with user-defined stops.
For example, over the past three weeks, it has been consistently profitable to buy SPY after a break below the 30 minute opening range. That gave us 8 winning trades in 11 opportunities, with the average win size ($.46) exceeding the average loss (-$.04). Trading those opportunities provided the SPY trader with net winnings of $3.54 per share. That's with no stops and a holding period of 60 minutes.
b) use of stop loss resulted in net small gains compared to 'No stops', echoing my own 'no stops' philosophy .
But what if stop losses consistently minimize the profit potential of promising trade setups?
http://www.trade-ideas.com/OddsMaker/
In the Trading Psychology Weblog the past couple of days, I've taken a look at the Odds Maker program from Trade Ideas as a way of establishing market regimes. You can think of regimes as the set of rules that the market has been playing by over the recent past. The Trade Ideas program screens the market for various patterns; Odds Maker tells you if those patterns would have been profitable if held for user-defined periods with user-defined stops.
For example, over the past three weeks, it has been consistently profitable to buy SPY after a break below the 30 minute opening range. That gave us 8 winning trades in 11 opportunities, with the average win size ($.46) exceeding the average loss (-$.04). Trading those opportunities provided the SPY trader with net winnings of $3.54 per share. That's with no stops and a holding period of 60 minutes.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
JPMorgan Sees S&P at 1100 by end of 2009
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most optimistic equity strategists told clients that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise even more than he expects this year.
“There is actually upside risk,” JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Thomas J. Lee, wrote in a report yesterday. He expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 1,100, or 21 percent higher than yesterday’s close.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows how his estimate, which he has left unchanged all year, compares with the average projection of strategists in a Bloomberg survey. Lee is tied with David Bianco of UBS AG for the highest year-end number.
The S&P 500’s last close before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September is included in the chart. Declines in share prices and the U.S. economy “snowballed” in the wake of the firm’s collapse, Lee wrote. “At that time, many would argue, stocks reflected a 2008/2009 recession.”
Stable retail sales, a pickup in pending home sales, and other indicators signal the recession may hit bottom by midyear, leading to higher share prices, the report said. The S&P 500 rose 34 percent from its March 9 low through May 8 yesterday’s close (exactly 2 months).
“We want to become ‘slow buyers’ of stocks,” he wrote, citing the likelihood that prices will drop below their March lows before rising anew. This so-called retest would serve as a trigger to buy “in a larger way.”
asr: what this analyst is saying they buy slowly at this already hiked S&P level and expects to test March low of 650 , once it touch March lows of S&P then they buy in a big way .
asr: who do not buy big way if S&P touch 650 which give 35% return on 650 to 890 , that is the precise reason why it won't fall down to 650 coz every body saw this 2 month pick from 650 to 890 so the very recent memory ( to peopel and fund managers ) of this quick spike won't let it fall to 650 ..
“There is actually upside risk,” JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Thomas J. Lee, wrote in a report yesterday. He expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 1,100, or 21 percent higher than yesterday’s close.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows how his estimate, which he has left unchanged all year, compares with the average projection of strategists in a Bloomberg survey. Lee is tied with David Bianco of UBS AG for the highest year-end number.
The S&P 500’s last close before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September is included in the chart. Declines in share prices and the U.S. economy “snowballed” in the wake of the firm’s collapse, Lee wrote. “At that time, many would argue, stocks reflected a 2008/2009 recession.”
Stable retail sales, a pickup in pending home sales, and other indicators signal the recession may hit bottom by midyear, leading to higher share prices, the report said. The S&P 500 rose 34 percent from its March 9 low through May 8 yesterday’s close (exactly 2 months).
“We want to become ‘slow buyers’ of stocks,” he wrote, citing the likelihood that prices will drop below their March lows before rising anew. This so-called retest would serve as a trigger to buy “in a larger way.”
asr: what this analyst is saying they buy slowly at this already hiked S&P level and expects to test March low of 650 , once it touch March lows of S&P then they buy in a big way .
asr: who do not buy big way if S&P touch 650 which give 35% return on 650 to 890 , that is the precise reason why it won't fall down to 650 coz every body saw this 2 month pick from 650 to 890 so the very recent memory ( to peopel and fund managers ) of this quick spike won't let it fall to 650 ..
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Trading Lessons
http://eotpro.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/11/daily-lessons-8.html
My suggestion? Start slow. Trade 1 contract. Regardless if you have a $2000.00 account to start or $100,000.00 account - TRADE 1 CONTRACT to start. Earn your second contract from the market.
If you can not earn money with 1 contract... you will not make money with 2. It is as simple as that. Even if it takes you 3 months of trading going up and down before you earn your 2nd contract, once you get there the Magic of Quantified Objective will prevail and once you start adding contracts you will be well on your way.
I also highly suggest that if you earn a contract and then suffer a trading loss that you take off the contract until you earn it back. This way you are only risking Market money and your own personal capital is still yours. When you have earned 5 or 10 contracts, cash out. That's right... the market is now paying you. Start over at 1 contract and re-earn your way all over again. This will ensure that you don't go so large as to create FEAR as well you ensure that the Market is paying you. This is your ultimate goal, to draw a paycheque from the market and by cashing out once you have reached a specific goal this will ensure that you are drawing the money out of the market, limiting your risk.
Be prepared to establish Goals in your trading. I highly suggest creating Goals that are attainable. If your goals are NOT attainable it will prove your demise. If you have anything in your trading plan that takes you psychologically into failure it will be impossible to succeed. Remember:
1) YOU WILL NOT WIN EVERY TRADE:
Don't expect to because it is impossible
2) TRADING IS A NUMBERS GAME:
Your trading plan needs a higher win/lose ratio... that's all
3) TRADING IS ALL ABOUT YOU:
Your capability to follow YOUR rules will determine if you will succeed or not.
4) YOU MUST LOVE WHAT YOU ARE DOING:
It is detrimental for your overall happiness to LOVE what you are doing.
Having a Passion for Trading will ensure you follow through with all the steps to ensuring your
overall future success. If you don't enjoy it... find out what you truly love and follow your heart.
http://eotpro.typepad.com/my_weblog/
http://eotpro.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/11/daily-lessons-l.html
LESSON 1: CHOOSE YOUR MARKET!
Before any other study can be done and before you flail around from market to market trying to trade them all... study each market and CHOOSE 1. Your chances of success are higher if you stick to one market and become intimate with how it moves during all market conditions. If you continuously change from one market to another you will not be able to create a disciplined and consistent plan as each market has its own idiosyncracies that must be learned individually. There is nothing saying you can't expand to another market once you are trading your Primary Choice successfully.
Lesson 2: CHOOSE YOUR TIMEFRAME!
This lesson will take some time to implement. In my opinion, one should take a week or two of watching their distinct market in several timeframes to assist in their end choice.
The obvious choice is longterm vs shortterm intra-day trading. For instance do you want to trade a 10minute chart? Does your personality prefer a scalping method or do you like to see your efforts payoff in the bigger picture trending days? Do you have patience or a lack of it? All of your personality traits will determine what form of trading is best suited to you as a person. IMO one's personality must play a factor in their trading style and trading plan. Trading truly is all about you and the earlier you realize this, I believe the higher your chance of success.
Now most charting software today offer more than only intra-day minute charts. There are Tick, Volume, Daily, and Weekly to name a few more. It is imperative that you know what style is best suited to you and the tools you choose in order to have the highest probability outcome.
The only way you will decide which timeframe and style of charting is best suited is by watching your chosen market, researching back in time with several timeframes, and understanding your own personality, level of patience, and maximum risk.
------
Lesson #7 - Knowing when to Review...
You have been trading your plan live for a few weeks now and doing very well thankyou.
Suddenly, one day, you wake up and you do everything wrong. In a matter of a morning you wipe out 1/2 of the profits that you have earned since turning on your trading live. Now, you are sitting there stunned- could you really have done this? What do you do now? Do you take the next trade? The indecision alone could cost you and it seems that now your mind is questioning everything and fear has set in. So... what do you do?
First:
Shut down your live account. Obviously there is a severe mental and emotional issue happening with your trading and continuing when you are in such a state it is best to shut it all down, and walk away for the day.
Second:
After you have had some time to clear your mind and calm yourself down. Go back to your charts and start the day over. Go through one tick at a time until you reach each and every trade that you took, win or lose, and ask yourself ...
1) "Did this Trade meet my criteria?" YES - Good /NO - WHY?
2) "Were the stops too big?" NO - Good /YES - WHY?
3) "Was I trading on emotion?" NOW - Good /YES - WHY?
4) "Did I overtrade?" NO - Good /YES - WHY?
5) "Was there outside influence against my trade?" (Sudden News, etc...)
If you Answered incorrectly on just one of these questions then you have to ask yourself WHY?
With exception to number 5 because sometimes there will be a news event that you just aren't aware of or prepared for and it is anyone's guess how the market will react... chalk this scenario up to the cost of doing business in trading.
Until you know the answers to what you may have done incorrectly... I would not trade live.
Re-open your simulator account and get back to re-establishing your discipline and the consistent execution of your trading plan. Even if you take a week to get back to your disciplined execution take that time. This will re-build the confidence that you need for long term success.
My suggestion? Start slow. Trade 1 contract. Regardless if you have a $2000.00 account to start or $100,000.00 account - TRADE 1 CONTRACT to start. Earn your second contract from the market.
If you can not earn money with 1 contract... you will not make money with 2. It is as simple as that. Even if it takes you 3 months of trading going up and down before you earn your 2nd contract, once you get there the Magic of Quantified Objective will prevail and once you start adding contracts you will be well on your way.
I also highly suggest that if you earn a contract and then suffer a trading loss that you take off the contract until you earn it back. This way you are only risking Market money and your own personal capital is still yours. When you have earned 5 or 10 contracts, cash out. That's right... the market is now paying you. Start over at 1 contract and re-earn your way all over again. This will ensure that you don't go so large as to create FEAR as well you ensure that the Market is paying you. This is your ultimate goal, to draw a paycheque from the market and by cashing out once you have reached a specific goal this will ensure that you are drawing the money out of the market, limiting your risk.
Be prepared to establish Goals in your trading. I highly suggest creating Goals that are attainable. If your goals are NOT attainable it will prove your demise. If you have anything in your trading plan that takes you psychologically into failure it will be impossible to succeed. Remember:
1) YOU WILL NOT WIN EVERY TRADE:
Don't expect to because it is impossible
2) TRADING IS A NUMBERS GAME:
Your trading plan needs a higher win/lose ratio... that's all
3) TRADING IS ALL ABOUT YOU:
Your capability to follow YOUR rules will determine if you will succeed or not.
4) YOU MUST LOVE WHAT YOU ARE DOING:
It is detrimental for your overall happiness to LOVE what you are doing.
Having a Passion for Trading will ensure you follow through with all the steps to ensuring your
overall future success. If you don't enjoy it... find out what you truly love and follow your heart.
http://eotpro.typepad.com/my_weblog/
http://eotpro.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/11/daily-lessons-l.html
LESSON 1: CHOOSE YOUR MARKET!
Before any other study can be done and before you flail around from market to market trying to trade them all... study each market and CHOOSE 1. Your chances of success are higher if you stick to one market and become intimate with how it moves during all market conditions. If you continuously change from one market to another you will not be able to create a disciplined and consistent plan as each market has its own idiosyncracies that must be learned individually. There is nothing saying you can't expand to another market once you are trading your Primary Choice successfully.
Lesson 2: CHOOSE YOUR TIMEFRAME!
This lesson will take some time to implement. In my opinion, one should take a week or two of watching their distinct market in several timeframes to assist in their end choice.
The obvious choice is longterm vs shortterm intra-day trading. For instance do you want to trade a 10minute chart? Does your personality prefer a scalping method or do you like to see your efforts payoff in the bigger picture trending days? Do you have patience or a lack of it? All of your personality traits will determine what form of trading is best suited to you as a person. IMO one's personality must play a factor in their trading style and trading plan. Trading truly is all about you and the earlier you realize this, I believe the higher your chance of success.
Now most charting software today offer more than only intra-day minute charts. There are Tick, Volume, Daily, and Weekly to name a few more. It is imperative that you know what style is best suited to you and the tools you choose in order to have the highest probability outcome.
The only way you will decide which timeframe and style of charting is best suited is by watching your chosen market, researching back in time with several timeframes, and understanding your own personality, level of patience, and maximum risk.
------
Lesson #7 - Knowing when to Review...
You have been trading your plan live for a few weeks now and doing very well thankyou.
Suddenly, one day, you wake up and you do everything wrong. In a matter of a morning you wipe out 1/2 of the profits that you have earned since turning on your trading live. Now, you are sitting there stunned- could you really have done this? What do you do now? Do you take the next trade? The indecision alone could cost you and it seems that now your mind is questioning everything and fear has set in. So... what do you do?
First:
Shut down your live account. Obviously there is a severe mental and emotional issue happening with your trading and continuing when you are in such a state it is best to shut it all down, and walk away for the day.
Second:
After you have had some time to clear your mind and calm yourself down. Go back to your charts and start the day over. Go through one tick at a time until you reach each and every trade that you took, win or lose, and ask yourself ...
1) "Did this Trade meet my criteria?" YES - Good /NO - WHY?
2) "Were the stops too big?" NO - Good /YES - WHY?
3) "Was I trading on emotion?" NOW - Good /YES - WHY?
4) "Did I overtrade?" NO - Good /YES - WHY?
5) "Was there outside influence against my trade?" (Sudden News, etc...)
If you Answered incorrectly on just one of these questions then you have to ask yourself WHY?
With exception to number 5 because sometimes there will be a news event that you just aren't aware of or prepared for and it is anyone's guess how the market will react... chalk this scenario up to the cost of doing business in trading.
Until you know the answers to what you may have done incorrectly... I would not trade live.
Re-open your simulator account and get back to re-establishing your discipline and the consistent execution of your trading plan. Even if you take a week to get back to your disciplined execution take that time. This will re-build the confidence that you need for long term success.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
ATROAD history
http://www.trimble.com/about_companies.shtml
http://www.road.com/
- Trimble $3 billion marketcap , big guy in mobile space is Garmin with $6 billion marketcap . All other are $100 million range , so the mobile space is not that big . It is hardware based commodity business .
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATRMB
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ATRoad lessons:
a) a sales guy like Panu can not build a tech company in an innovative space ( like Mobile resource, GPS ..)
b) you can't build a company on just Sales: Atroad changed one 'VP of sales' for every 1.5 years on average, once the new VP sales power to sell to new customers is exhausted , he is fired new guy is brought in.
c) US financial market are very efficient , board and CEO ( with big stock holders)can mange stock price for some time like an year or so not so long . Wall street will find the real value of the company one way or the other.
- @Road went public in 2000 and was acquired by Trimble in 2006 for $496M ( from one of notes below)
- Under Krish @Road has raised over $225 million and went public on September 28, 2000.
- at IPO stock listed $10 same as IPO price ( since dot com burst started in 2000 ) , then dropped to $2 in 2003 down time
- in recovery tech market in 2005 , it managed to reach top $16 with small group of investors and board manged the stock .
- sold 5 million stocks to one group as secondary offering for $14 that brought $60 million at the peak of the stock ( with manged price of $14 ).
- this $60 million saved the comapany to servive for 2 more years till 2006. from that offering period of 2004 stock dropped slowly from $14 to $5 in 2 year period.
- Trimble bought it in 2007 for $500 million , seems $5 price.
- I think for Trimble sale, main drivers may be the fund that bought stock at $14 and initial founder Rod (who was outsted by Panu after IPO , with the help of new investors and board ). Both may have combined 5 + 5 = 10% holding of company) . they must have fedup with Panus plans and inability to bring stock price UP.
Krish Panu
Tom Allen - VP service delivary ( came from Visa , typical IT department manager )
Kenneth Colby
Leo Jolicoeur
Michael Martini
Mike Walker - Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
asr: this is real one solid engineering guy worked prior in Sierra Wireless inc, Mororolla . Mike was initial guy who worked to first founders Rod etc.. to build company base product ..
--------
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/galleon-group
Concurrent Elects Krish Panu to Board of Directors
Thursday, November 13, 2008
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/2795813
Concurrent (Nasdaq: CCUR), a worldwide leader in real-time Linux-based computing technologies, today announced that Krish Panu has been elected to the board of directors, to be seated as an immediate addition as the board expands from five directors to six. He is currently managing partner with The Galleon Group, one of Concurrent’s largest shareholders.
“Mr. Panu’s extensive experience in building successful technology companies combined with his knowledge of the investment community is a tremendous asset,” stated Dan Mondor, Concurrent president and CEO.
Mr. Panu’s professional career includes twenty-four years in technology, where he has built successful businesses which have experienced explosive revenue growth and global expansion while creating multi-billion dollar markets. Prior to joining The Galleon Group, Mr. Panu was chairman, CEO and president of @Road, Inc., a worldwide leader in mobile resource management solutions. Under his leadership, @Road became one of the first profitable “software as a service” companies (SaaS), developing a broad customer base and acquiring and integrating several companies. In February 2007, Mr. Panu successfully negotiated and completed a merger between @Road and Trimble Navigation Ltd. for almost half a billion dollars.
Prior to @Road, Mr. Panu served as vice president and general manager of the Logic Products division of semiconductor manufacturer Atmel Corporation, where he directed the engineering, manufacturing, software development and marketing groups. His management of many of Atmel’s strategic and operational initiatives strongly contributed to the $1 billion revenue growth the company saw during his seven-year tenure. Previous to Atmel, Mr. Panu held executive sales and marketing roles at Catalyst Semiconductor, Datapoint Corporation and Xicor.
Mr. Panu served on the board of directors of PeopleSupport, Inc (NASDAQ: PSPT) until its acquisition by Aegis in October, and currently serves on the board of Liquid Computing, Inc. (privately held). In addition, he serves as president of Panu Foundation, a nonprofit corporation which provides grants to educational institutions and supports healthcare research and other charitable activities around the world.
“Mr. Panu has developed a broad network of relationships in venture capital, investment banking and entrepreneur communities,” said Steve Nussrallah, Concurrent’s chairman of the board. “His extensive experience as a ‘Silicon Valley’ business leader and the success he has achieved in the investment community make him an excellent addition to the board of directors.”
Mr. Panu holds a B.S. in electrical engineering, an M.S. in computer engineering and an M.B.A. from Wayne State University in Michigan.
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Liquid Computing Appoints New Board Member, Krish Panu
Business Wire , Sept 10, 2007
"Liquid Computing is making all of the right moves as a market leader in fabric computing - a seasoned senior management team, a solid business strategy and a ground-breaking virtualization solution that cuts across broad market segments," said Mr. Panu. "LiquidIQ's high performance and flexible virtualized processing, virtualized networking and virtualized IO dramatically reduce the challenges, cost and complexity associated with production-scale datacenter and service provider deployments. LiquidIQ is very complementary with OS virtualization technologies such as VMWare and XEN. When LiquidIQ is coupled with virtualized storage solutions such as offered by EMC, Gartner's long-standing vision of the Real Time Infrastructure (RTI) for the datacenter becomes a practical reality."
Mr. Panu brings more than two decades of business strategy, engineering, and operational experience to Liquid Computing. Most recently, he was Chairman, CEO and President of @Road, Inc., a worldwide leader in Mobile Resource Management solutions. As CEO, he aggressively built @Road into one of the world's first profitable Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. @Road went public in 2000 and was acquired by Trimble in 2006 for $496M.
"We are privileged to have Krish as part of our distinguished board," said Brian Hurley, CEO, Liquid Computing. "His business insight and operational experience in growing innovative technology companies and transforming them into major market leaders will play a vital role as we push forward in our growth strategy."
Prior to @Road, Inc., Mr. Panu served as Vice President and General Manager of the Logic Products division of semiconductor manufacturer Atmel Corporation, where he directed the engineering, manufacturing, software development and marketing groups. During his seven-year tenure, Atmel's revenue grew from approximately $100 million to over $1.1 billion, and the wireless business increased to 42 percent of the company's business. Mr. Panu was also a key member of the management team which raised over $600 million in both stock and bond offerings.
Through his repeated experience in building successful technology businesses, Mr. Panu has developed a broad network of relationships in the investment and business communities. He supports promising new technology businesses as an active angel investor. Mr. Panu holds an M.S. in Computer Engineering and an M.B.A. from Wayne State University in Michigan.
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Krish Panu
Chairman, CEO and President
"@Road has pursued a vision; delivering the easiest-to-use, fastest–to-deploy mobile resource management solution with a very compelling return on investment." - krish quote on website ..
Krish Panu is the @Road President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board. Under his leadership @Road has raised over $225 million and went public on September 28, 2000. @Road is a global leader in Mobile Resource Management. In January, 2005, @Road was ranked number one on the Forbes Midas List for 2004, a ranking of the 25 fastest growing publicly traded technology companies in North America. In 2004 Frost & Sullivan awarded @Road the “Mobile Communications Product of the Year.” In 2003 @Road was ranked “Number One Fastest Growing Silicon Valley Technology Company by the Deloitte & Touche Fast 50 Program. In both 2001 and 2002, @Road was named by the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal as one of Silicon Valley’s 50 fastest-growing public companies.
Mr. Panu’s career has spanned more than 20 years in technology companies. Prior to @Road, he served as Vice President and General Manager of the Logic Products division of Atmel Corporation, a semiconductor manufacturer. He was responsible for managing engineering, manufacturing, software development and marketing groups as well as the corporate quality and reliability organization. During his seven-year tenure Atmel's revenue grew from approximately $100M to over $1.1 billion, and the wireless business increased to 42% of the company's business. Mr. Panu was also a key member of the management team which raised over $600M in both stock and bond offerings. Previous to Atmel, Mr. Panu held executive sales and marketing roles at Catalyst Semiconductor, Xicor and Datapoint Corporation, and, in addition, while at Atmel, Xicor and others he has initiated global operations centers around the world.
Mr. Panu is an active angel investor in building technology businesses. As a result of his long, successful experience, Mr. Panu has a broad and deep network of relationships in both the venture capital and entrepreneur communities.
Mr. Panu holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering, an M.S. in computer engineering as well as an M.B.A. from Wayne State University in Michigan.
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http://www.road.com/
- Trimble $3 billion marketcap , big guy in mobile space is Garmin with $6 billion marketcap . All other are $100 million range , so the mobile space is not that big . It is hardware based commodity business .
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATRMB
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ATRoad lessons:
a) a sales guy like Panu can not build a tech company in an innovative space ( like Mobile resource, GPS ..)
b) you can't build a company on just Sales: Atroad changed one 'VP of sales' for every 1.5 years on average, once the new VP sales power to sell to new customers is exhausted , he is fired new guy is brought in.
c) US financial market are very efficient , board and CEO ( with big stock holders)can mange stock price for some time like an year or so not so long . Wall street will find the real value of the company one way or the other.
- @Road went public in 2000 and was acquired by Trimble in 2006 for $496M ( from one of notes below)
- Under Krish @Road has raised over $225 million and went public on September 28, 2000.
- at IPO stock listed $10 same as IPO price ( since dot com burst started in 2000 ) , then dropped to $2 in 2003 down time
- in recovery tech market in 2005 , it managed to reach top $16 with small group of investors and board manged the stock .
- sold 5 million stocks to one group as secondary offering for $14 that brought $60 million at the peak of the stock ( with manged price of $14 ).
- this $60 million saved the comapany to servive for 2 more years till 2006. from that offering period of 2004 stock dropped slowly from $14 to $5 in 2 year period.
- Trimble bought it in 2007 for $500 million , seems $5 price.
- I think for Trimble sale, main drivers may be the fund that bought stock at $14 and initial founder Rod (who was outsted by Panu after IPO , with the help of new investors and board ). Both may have combined 5 + 5 = 10% holding of company) . they must have fedup with Panus plans and inability to bring stock price UP.
Krish Panu
Tom Allen - VP service delivary ( came from Visa , typical IT department manager )
Kenneth Colby
Leo Jolicoeur
Michael Martini
Mike Walker - Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
asr: this is real one solid engineering guy worked prior in Sierra Wireless inc, Mororolla . Mike was initial guy who worked to first founders Rod etc.. to build company base product ..
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http://www.linkedin.com/companies/galleon-group
Concurrent Elects Krish Panu to Board of Directors
Thursday, November 13, 2008
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/2795813
Concurrent (Nasdaq: CCUR), a worldwide leader in real-time Linux-based computing technologies, today announced that Krish Panu has been elected to the board of directors, to be seated as an immediate addition as the board expands from five directors to six. He is currently managing partner with The Galleon Group, one of Concurrent’s largest shareholders.
“Mr. Panu’s extensive experience in building successful technology companies combined with his knowledge of the investment community is a tremendous asset,” stated Dan Mondor, Concurrent president and CEO.
Mr. Panu’s professional career includes twenty-four years in technology, where he has built successful businesses which have experienced explosive revenue growth and global expansion while creating multi-billion dollar markets. Prior to joining The Galleon Group, Mr. Panu was chairman, CEO and president of @Road, Inc., a worldwide leader in mobile resource management solutions. Under his leadership, @Road became one of the first profitable “software as a service” companies (SaaS), developing a broad customer base and acquiring and integrating several companies. In February 2007, Mr. Panu successfully negotiated and completed a merger between @Road and Trimble Navigation Ltd. for almost half a billion dollars.
Prior to @Road, Mr. Panu served as vice president and general manager of the Logic Products division of semiconductor manufacturer Atmel Corporation, where he directed the engineering, manufacturing, software development and marketing groups. His management of many of Atmel’s strategic and operational initiatives strongly contributed to the $1 billion revenue growth the company saw during his seven-year tenure. Previous to Atmel, Mr. Panu held executive sales and marketing roles at Catalyst Semiconductor, Datapoint Corporation and Xicor.
Mr. Panu served on the board of directors of PeopleSupport, Inc (NASDAQ: PSPT) until its acquisition by Aegis in October, and currently serves on the board of Liquid Computing, Inc. (privately held). In addition, he serves as president of Panu Foundation, a nonprofit corporation which provides grants to educational institutions and supports healthcare research and other charitable activities around the world.
“Mr. Panu has developed a broad network of relationships in venture capital, investment banking and entrepreneur communities,” said Steve Nussrallah, Concurrent’s chairman of the board. “His extensive experience as a ‘Silicon Valley’ business leader and the success he has achieved in the investment community make him an excellent addition to the board of directors.”
Mr. Panu holds a B.S. in electrical engineering, an M.S. in computer engineering and an M.B.A. from Wayne State University in Michigan.
---------------
Liquid Computing Appoints New Board Member, Krish Panu
Business Wire , Sept 10, 2007
"Liquid Computing is making all of the right moves as a market leader in fabric computing - a seasoned senior management team, a solid business strategy and a ground-breaking virtualization solution that cuts across broad market segments," said Mr. Panu. "LiquidIQ's high performance and flexible virtualized processing, virtualized networking and virtualized IO dramatically reduce the challenges, cost and complexity associated with production-scale datacenter and service provider deployments. LiquidIQ is very complementary with OS virtualization technologies such as VMWare and XEN. When LiquidIQ is coupled with virtualized storage solutions such as offered by EMC, Gartner's long-standing vision of the Real Time Infrastructure (RTI) for the datacenter becomes a practical reality."
Mr. Panu brings more than two decades of business strategy, engineering, and operational experience to Liquid Computing. Most recently, he was Chairman, CEO and President of @Road, Inc., a worldwide leader in Mobile Resource Management solutions. As CEO, he aggressively built @Road into one of the world's first profitable Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. @Road went public in 2000 and was acquired by Trimble in 2006 for $496M.
"We are privileged to have Krish as part of our distinguished board," said Brian Hurley, CEO, Liquid Computing. "His business insight and operational experience in growing innovative technology companies and transforming them into major market leaders will play a vital role as we push forward in our growth strategy."
Prior to @Road, Inc., Mr. Panu served as Vice President and General Manager of the Logic Products division of semiconductor manufacturer Atmel Corporation, where he directed the engineering, manufacturing, software development and marketing groups. During his seven-year tenure, Atmel's revenue grew from approximately $100 million to over $1.1 billion, and the wireless business increased to 42 percent of the company's business. Mr. Panu was also a key member of the management team which raised over $600 million in both stock and bond offerings.
Through his repeated experience in building successful technology businesses, Mr. Panu has developed a broad network of relationships in the investment and business communities. He supports promising new technology businesses as an active angel investor. Mr. Panu holds an M.S. in Computer Engineering and an M.B.A. from Wayne State University in Michigan.
---------------
Krish Panu
Chairman, CEO and President
"@Road has pursued a vision; delivering the easiest-to-use, fastest–to-deploy mobile resource management solution with a very compelling return on investment." - krish quote on website ..
Krish Panu is the @Road President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board. Under his leadership @Road has raised over $225 million and went public on September 28, 2000. @Road is a global leader in Mobile Resource Management. In January, 2005, @Road was ranked number one on the Forbes Midas List for 2004, a ranking of the 25 fastest growing publicly traded technology companies in North America. In 2004 Frost & Sullivan awarded @Road the “Mobile Communications Product of the Year.” In 2003 @Road was ranked “Number One Fastest Growing Silicon Valley Technology Company by the Deloitte & Touche Fast 50 Program. In both 2001 and 2002, @Road was named by the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal as one of Silicon Valley’s 50 fastest-growing public companies.
Mr. Panu’s career has spanned more than 20 years in technology companies. Prior to @Road, he served as Vice President and General Manager of the Logic Products division of Atmel Corporation, a semiconductor manufacturer. He was responsible for managing engineering, manufacturing, software development and marketing groups as well as the corporate quality and reliability organization. During his seven-year tenure Atmel's revenue grew from approximately $100M to over $1.1 billion, and the wireless business increased to 42% of the company's business. Mr. Panu was also a key member of the management team which raised over $600M in both stock and bond offerings. Previous to Atmel, Mr. Panu held executive sales and marketing roles at Catalyst Semiconductor, Xicor and Datapoint Corporation, and, in addition, while at Atmel, Xicor and others he has initiated global operations centers around the world.
Mr. Panu is an active angel investor in building technology businesses. As a result of his long, successful experience, Mr. Panu has a broad and deep network of relationships in both the venture capital and entrepreneur communities.
Mr. Panu holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering, an M.S. in computer engineering as well as an M.B.A. from Wayne State University in Michigan.
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Saturday, May 2, 2009
China's top 100 companies by By Rupali Arora, Fortune August 28 2007
China's top 100 companiesBanks with hot IPOs, plus surging energy demand, propelled a dozen new arrivals onto our list of China's largest companies. (Fortune Magazine) -- A rush of listings on the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges added a dozen newcomers to Fortune's annual list of China's 100 largest publicly traded companies. One of them had the largest share offering in the world: Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, which raised $21.9 billion last October. As China's biggest bank by revenue and Asia's most profitable bank, with profits of $6.2 billion last year, it grabbed the No. 4 spot on this year's list. The Bank of China, which also had a successful IPO, debuted at No. 5. While China's economy grew nearly 11 percent last year, the revenue cutoff for this year's list rose 46 percent, to $1.9 billion, compared with last year's $1.3 billion. The country's gnawing demand for energy helped keep China Petroleum & Chemical (Charts) in its No. 1 position for the seventh year in a row, with revenue up almost 34 percent, to $134 billion. State-owned companies continued to dominate the list, taking the top ten spots. The largest private company on the list, computer maker Lenovo, fell four places, to No. 11, even though its revenues rose 10 percent, to $14.6 billion. The China 100 was compiled by the editors of Fortune China in cooperation with the Finet Group, a Hong Kong--listed company specializing in providing business information about China, and was first published in Fortune China. In compiling the list, Fortune China looked at Chinese companies listed on the stock exchanges in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, London, and New York City. The companies are ranked by 2006 revenues. Figures were provided by the companies to the relevant stock exchanges and obtained from Bloomberg. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| > The China 100
N.A. - Not on last year's list. 1 All dollar values were converted using the 12/31/06 exchange rate of 7.8041 yuan per U.S. dollar. 2 Market value is based on all shares outstanding, including those held by the government. |
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