asr: a) the author talks about tool 'Odds Maker' from 'TradeIdeas' company , since author mentions it , Odds Maker seems useful tool.
b) use of stop loss resulted in net small gains compared to 'No stops', echoing my own 'no stops' philosophy .
But what if stop losses consistently minimize the profit potential of promising trade setups?
http://www.trade-ideas.com/OddsMaker/
In the Trading Psychology Weblog the past couple of days, I've taken a look at the Odds Maker program from Trade Ideas as a way of establishing market regimes. You can think of regimes as the set of rules that the market has been playing by over the recent past. The Trade Ideas program screens the market for various patterns; Odds Maker tells you if those patterns would have been profitable if held for user-defined periods with user-defined stops.
For example, over the past three weeks, it has been consistently profitable to buy SPY after a break below the 30 minute opening range. That gave us 8 winning trades in 11 opportunities, with the average win size ($.46) exceeding the average loss (-$.04). Trading those opportunities provided the SPY trader with net winnings of $3.54 per share. That's with no stops and a holding period of 60 minutes.
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