Tuesday, October 20, 2009

OIL price

OIL reached $80 on monday 10/19/09 with EURO reaching 1.490 and GOLD at 1060 and S&P 1090
then today 10/20/09 it dropped to $78 then rise to 78.50 , here is marketwatch comments

asr: I should have opted for short at 80 on 10/19 given contract expires this week , so there may be pull back of $2 as shown today on 10/20 ( given equities RUN too high for SP 1090 on 10/19 )
BULL 1
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Tuesday's decline was "more a pause in the rally," said Zachary Oxman, managing director of TrendMax Futures. "Now that we've breached $80, I expect to see firm trading in the $80s before the end of the month.

BULL 2
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"Areas of weakness remain, but most of the groundwork for a sustainable move up has been laid," said Amrita Sen, an analyst at Barclays Capital. "We continue[d] to reiterate our view of $76 a barrel average for the fourth quarter."

JIM also siad as BULL $82-$84 with $76 as support for whole NOVEMBER

BEAR
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"Fundamentals remain poor amid a glut of product stocks and low refining margins which could see refiners reduce utilization further, hence reducing demand for crude," said Nimit Khamar, analyst at Sucden Financial Research, in a note to clients.

Demand recovery is far from convincing, while spare capacity has increased significantly, he said.

"So, once fundamentals come into the limelight crude prices could be susceptible to a sharp correction as a rally not supported by fundamentals cannot be sustained indefinitely," Khamar said.

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