RealCode Programmers Reference.pdf
- what stockFinder CAN NOT do
- percentage the # of bars closing below a moving average for a specified number of bars.
- good Realcode examples - by Kuf
- '# LRS21 = indicator.linearRegressionSlope
- http://tradingourway.com/page4.html - the above guy site, it has 'real time' pattern recognation s/w
- has .Net basics, indicators, paint etc..
- Plot = Price.High(1) – Price.Low(1)
Plot= Price.TradeRange(1)
- Calculate the Min Low for price over the last 10 bars, using a loop
Dim calculatedMin as single = single.MinValue
For i as integer = 0 to 9
Max = System.Math.Min(calculatedMin,Price.Low(i)) -- system ways of fiding Min
Next i
Plot = calculatedMin
Calculate the Min Low for price over the last 10 bars using the MinLow function
Plot = Price.MinLow(10)
Tlin.MinLow(5) -- this is working Tredline is Tlin
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Using RealCode with BackScanner
Build a realcode indicator to determine each condition then plot a value for each one, such as Buy = 1 Sell =2 Cover= 3 Sell short= 4 Nothing = 0 Then create a rule to test for each condition. Then place the rules in Backscanner. You can also use the Label to place the buy/sell on the chart.
Build a realcode indicator to determine each condition then plot a value for each one, such as
Buy = 1
Sell =2
Cover= 3
Sell short= 4
Nothing = 0
Then create a rule to test for each condition. Then place the rules in Backscanner.
You can also use the Label to place the buy/sell on the chart.
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Friday, December 25, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Accumulation / Distribution Line
AMDM: Accumulation MarkUP Distribution MarkDOwn
asr: I call it as AMDM ( see more my blog posts on VSA )
- for OIL we need to Record these phases as one of AMDM ( on any given day one of these 4 letters..) then track this as indicator and back test it.
- in case of OIL , Accumulation look as CONSOLIdatation at lower prices for 2-3 days then Markup Strats.
- consolidation is explained nicely in the charts below with AD line , it happens over months . aslo imp to note are positive/negative divergence of AD line with stock price
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There are many indicators available to measure volume and the flow of money for a particular stock, index or security. One of the most popular volume indicators over the years has been the Accumulation/Distribution Line. The basic premise behind volume indicators, including the Accumulation/Distribution Line, is that volume precedes price. Volume reflects the amount of shares traded in a particular stock, and is a direct reflection of the money flowing into and out of a stock. Many times before a stock advances, there will be period of increased volume just prior to the move. Most volume or money flow indicators are designed to identify early increases in positive or negative volume flow to gain an edge before the price moves. (Note: the terms "money flow" and "volume flow" are essentially interchangeable.)
Another means of using the Accumulation/Distribution Line is to confirm the strength or sustainability behind an advance. In a healthy advance, the Accumulation/Distribution Line should keep up or, at the very least, move in an uptrend. If the stock is moving up at a rapid clip, but the Accumulation/Distribution Line has trouble making higher highs or trades sideways, it should serve as an indication that buying pressure is relatively weak.
Conclusions
The Accumulation/Distribution Line is good means to measure the volume force behind a move.
1.
As a volume indicator, the Accumulation/Distribution Line will help to determine if the volume in a security is increasing on the advances or declines.
2.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used to gauge the general flow of money. An uptrend indicates that buying pressure is prevailing, and a downtrend indicates that selling pressure is prevailing.
3.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used to spot divergences, both positive and negative.
4.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used to confirm the strength and sustainability behind a move.
There are some drawbacks to the Accumulation/Distribution Line, though.
3.
It sometimes difficult to detect subtle changes in volume flows. The rate of change in a downtrend could be slowing, but it may be impossible to detect until the Accumulation/Distribution Line turns up. This drawback has been addressed in the form of the Chaikin Oscillator or Chaikin Money Flow, which are next in the education series.
asr: I call it as AMDM ( see more my blog posts on VSA )
- for OIL we need to Record these phases as one of AMDM ( on any given day one of these 4 letters..) then track this as indicator and back test it.
- in case of OIL , Accumulation look as CONSOLIdatation at lower prices for 2-3 days then Markup Strats.
- consolidation is explained nicely in the charts below with AD line , it happens over months . aslo imp to note are positive/negative divergence of AD line with stock price
------
There are many indicators available to measure volume and the flow of money for a particular stock, index or security. One of the most popular volume indicators over the years has been the Accumulation/Distribution Line. The basic premise behind volume indicators, including the Accumulation/Distribution Line, is that volume precedes price. Volume reflects the amount of shares traded in a particular stock, and is a direct reflection of the money flowing into and out of a stock. Many times before a stock advances, there will be period of increased volume just prior to the move. Most volume or money flow indicators are designed to identify early increases in positive or negative volume flow to gain an edge before the price moves. (Note: the terms "money flow" and "volume flow" are essentially interchangeable.)
Another means of using the Accumulation/Distribution Line is to confirm the strength or sustainability behind an advance. In a healthy advance, the Accumulation/Distribution Line should keep up or, at the very least, move in an uptrend. If the stock is moving up at a rapid clip, but the Accumulation/Distribution Line has trouble making higher highs or trades sideways, it should serve as an indication that buying pressure is relatively weak.
Conclusions
The Accumulation/Distribution Line is good means to measure the volume force behind a move.
1.
As a volume indicator, the Accumulation/Distribution Line will help to determine if the volume in a security is increasing on the advances or declines.
2.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used to gauge the general flow of money. An uptrend indicates that buying pressure is prevailing, and a downtrend indicates that selling pressure is prevailing.
3.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used to spot divergences, both positive and negative.
4.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used to confirm the strength and sustainability behind a move.
There are some drawbacks to the Accumulation/Distribution Line, though.
3.
It sometimes difficult to detect subtle changes in volume flows. The rate of change in a downtrend could be slowing, but it may be impossible to detect until the Accumulation/Distribution Line turns up. This drawback has been addressed in the form of the Chaikin Oscillator or Chaikin Money Flow, which are next in the education series.
Friday, December 18, 2009
100% discretionary commodity trading advisor (CTA).
Pearlman CTA managed futures is a 100% discretionary commodity trading advisor (CTA). We provide unique managed future programs to clients. We offer programs appropriate for various client objectives and risk tolerance levels. We position each account, and evaluate possible adjustments on an ongoing basis, in an attempt to maximize long term growth.
Markets Considered:
Grains, Metals, Energy, Meat, Food, Fiber, Equity and Treasury.
Based in California working for clients across the nation and globe.
Why Pearlman CTA Managed Futures
Experience: Roger M. Pearlman CTA 3 decades of hands on futures investing, CFTC registered since 1986.
Knowledge: Broad perspective, hands on experience in treasury, equity, grain, energy and metal, markets.
Vision: See opportunity now, sensible economic and world view, at times contrary to popular perception.
Position: A CTA to redirect capital to with potential to prosper from unfolding economic conditions.
Flexibility: A fully discretionary trader free to act on current analysis of risk and return relative to asset category.
Risk Management: Consider potential gain relative to perceived risk, client choice of risk tolerance level.
Stability: A CTA firm clients can grow with over the long term.
Independent: Client choice of FCM / IB for good service.
Incentive: CTA does not share in commission and has common interest with client of profitability.
Liquidity: Position in US regulated future exchange contracts.
What makes our philosophy and style unique is it combines personal experience with common sense. Exceptional opportunities may be had by dissecting the prevalent logic and premise others rely on. We use a fully discretionary strategy positioning for what our research and analysis deems the greatest potential gain relative to risk over the long term.
asr: yes for OIL in 401k accounts( DIG, DUG ) one can grow account safely ..
With commodities we like being net long as prices don't go below zero but have no upside limit. We prefer those liquid markets which are cheap relative to other asset classes in real dollar historic terms. Don't be fooled by our drawdown months.
Unlike those traders who will always take a loss and then try again from a weaker position, typically we will have been improving our cost basis and are in better position then before the drawdown. At times it is as if the other side is painting itself deeper into a corner and can only exit out an upper floor window.
asr: this guy explained reason to have darwdowns and hold ( like OIL at 1 week down postions )
Non systematic: We all know past performance may not repeat. So more important then impressive past performance is the rate of return going forward. We do not want to depend on a system whose recent success may have been due to the law of probability. A certain percentage of systems will appear outstanding back tested but have no better then a random chance of success going forward. Don't get stuck with systems that may depend on yesterdays economic conditions.
Not option dependent: That can limit potential gains by selling, or cost time premium when buying.
The why futures section lists the Pearlman CTA advantage over investment programs that are limited to buying equities bonds or real estate all of which have already appreciated substantially and have great downside risk. Just keeping money in the bank or short term treasuries leaves one exposed to the risk of a declining dollar and inflation.
The why managed futures section explained the best way to access the best opportunities is the futures market. While futures are a zero sum market another advantage Pearlman CTA has is the composition of other market participants. Hedgers are there to avoid risk. Some inexperienced traders make poor decisions. Some day traders do not care about the big picture. Trend followers can exaggerate market moves. These and other future trader profiles may create opportunity over the long term for above average returns relative to risk with our fully discretionary managed future programs.
Markets Considered:
Grains, Metals, Energy, Meat, Food, Fiber, Equity and Treasury.
Based in California working for clients across the nation and globe.
Why Pearlman CTA Managed Futures
Experience: Roger M. Pearlman CTA 3 decades of hands on futures investing, CFTC registered since 1986.
Knowledge: Broad perspective, hands on experience in treasury, equity, grain, energy and metal, markets.
Vision: See opportunity now, sensible economic and world view, at times contrary to popular perception.
Position: A CTA to redirect capital to with potential to prosper from unfolding economic conditions.
Flexibility: A fully discretionary trader free to act on current analysis of risk and return relative to asset category.
Risk Management: Consider potential gain relative to perceived risk, client choice of risk tolerance level.
Stability: A CTA firm clients can grow with over the long term.
Independent: Client choice of FCM / IB for good service.
Incentive: CTA does not share in commission and has common interest with client of profitability.
Liquidity: Position in US regulated future exchange contracts.
What makes our philosophy and style unique is it combines personal experience with common sense. Exceptional opportunities may be had by dissecting the prevalent logic and premise others rely on. We use a fully discretionary strategy positioning for what our research and analysis deems the greatest potential gain relative to risk over the long term.
asr: yes for OIL in 401k accounts( DIG, DUG ) one can grow account safely ..
With commodities we like being net long as prices don't go below zero but have no upside limit. We prefer those liquid markets which are cheap relative to other asset classes in real dollar historic terms. Don't be fooled by our drawdown months.
Unlike those traders who will always take a loss and then try again from a weaker position, typically we will have been improving our cost basis and are in better position then before the drawdown. At times it is as if the other side is painting itself deeper into a corner and can only exit out an upper floor window.
asr: this guy explained reason to have darwdowns and hold ( like OIL at 1 week down postions )
Non systematic: We all know past performance may not repeat. So more important then impressive past performance is the rate of return going forward. We do not want to depend on a system whose recent success may have been due to the law of probability. A certain percentage of systems will appear outstanding back tested but have no better then a random chance of success going forward. Don't get stuck with systems that may depend on yesterdays economic conditions.
Not option dependent: That can limit potential gains by selling, or cost time premium when buying.
The why futures section lists the Pearlman CTA advantage over investment programs that are limited to buying equities bonds or real estate all of which have already appreciated substantially and have great downside risk. Just keeping money in the bank or short term treasuries leaves one exposed to the risk of a declining dollar and inflation.
The why managed futures section explained the best way to access the best opportunities is the futures market. While futures are a zero sum market another advantage Pearlman CTA has is the composition of other market participants. Hedgers are there to avoid risk. Some inexperienced traders make poor decisions. Some day traders do not care about the big picture. Trend followers can exaggerate market moves. These and other future trader profiles may create opportunity over the long term for above average returns relative to risk with our fully discretionary managed future programs.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Oil Notes 2
---
2/19/11: Al brooks way of bar by bar read.
this is the method NoDogi/Kid follows as stated in this ET post
In this book Al Brook said , his trades are for 1 to 15 minutes ...( see at bottom of free amazon pages , He is a doctor retired , did first 10 years 10,000 on indicators that is 1,000 /year that is 3 hours/day . Then all over started with price action .
AustinP comment here:
- CL just happens to be one of the cleanest, technically trading tapes there is. All currency markets trade much purer than stocks, so do commodity markets.
- CL is best of both worlds. There is no other symbol like it... not even a distant second by comparison.
- CL is best of both worlds. There is no other symbol like it... not even a distant second by comparison.
NoDogi comment:
I don't understand your exit at all, though. Once price breaks previous S of 90.27, you have a fully confirmed trend reversal and your target zones are breaks of each previous S level, until price indicates a reason to cover. Once 90.08 is broken, the round number is in play and that breaks without a pause, so next test is 89.86, and total breakdown there, next is 89.48,-----
2/18/11: MRCI has sesasonal layed on Flash chart with daily prices , it is best you can see. We have $200 with MRCI call and use those if reqd. first get 20 day free trail.
- we can use this 15 year seasoanl layed on Daily chart of ' CL oil' , ' RBoB', ' Heatting OIL to see how seasonal playing for next 1 month.
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2/8/11: Quant Trading : see this blog post
- read game theory , see amazon wishlist books and delicious book mark (game-theory)
2/8/10: today down day 3 ( friday, monday ,tuesday ):
- reasons: china 2 nd rate hike ( in 6 weeks ), tomorrow Wednesday inventory numbers.
- based on my reason it should be slight postive day close basis since prev. 2 days down , and tomrrow will be down ( EIA and down trend )
- after 85.88 , MMs pulled ito 87.11 to show postive day
- then dropped to 86.20 I thought there may be retrace to 86.45 , but they dropped it to 86.70 then pulled back to 87.40 then finally back to 87.0
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2/7/10: see NOdoji 2 year long self blog on all trades
2/5/10: I did install VSA ( volume spred analysis) code into amibroker it looks good , I had docs in google docs .. master it , it is better than simple TA
2/4/10: use our VSA, modified ATR, Stochastic , Vantage point range and QUant analysis and pre-documentation.
- Quant and 'Read Smart Money mind', option protected Position trading: this should be holy grail , once I outline
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1) China raised interest rates twice in 2010 and increased bank-reserve requirements on Jan. 14.
2) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/oil-trades-near-two-week-low-because-of-concern-over-chinese-rate-increase.html China’s economic expansion exceeded the 9.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and compared with a 9.6 percent annual gain in the previous three months, a statistics bureau report showed. The country’s central bank raised interest rates twice in 2010 and increased bank-reserve requirements on Jan. 14.
Crude oil fell the most in two weeks on concern China will raiseinterest rates to combat inflation, slowing economic growth and demand for energy.
Oil dropped 2.2 percent after China said inflation was 4.6 percent in December and that the economy of the world’s biggest energy-consuming country grew 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices also declined after the Energy Department said that U.S. crude supplies rose for the first time in seven weeks.
“Worries about what actions China will take to slow the economy are sending the market lower,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Any Chinese move could lower demand growth.”
Hitting the Brakes’
“China is going to be hitting the brakes,” said Richard Soultanian, co-president of NUS Consulting Group, a Park Ridge, New Jersey-based energy procurement adviser. “China’s voracious appetite for every commodity has been pushing prices higher. The country is now facing the inflation monster and will take additional steps to stem runaway growth.”
Crude-oil stockpiles increased 2.62 million barrels to 335.7 million, the Energy Department report showed. A 500,000- barrel decline was forecast, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
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1/18/2011:
- Look at our blog for Cargo ships and understand Swap price , minus 30 cents etc when sale happens between parties ..
- Brunt closed last Friday around $98 , may be is that indication WTI which will be closed in few days later ( same FEB contract ) may not drop much regardless of stock Market conditions ( SP etc..) as same set of trader who closed Brent at $98 may not let WTI same FEB month close below 90 ? ( atleast first day after Brent FEB conract close) ??? need to verify this theory.
- today the Spread ( Brunt - WTI ) today Increase is negative meaning , Brunt dropped more than WTI .. may be indication WTI will close in -ve terrritory ( comapred to previous close ) ???
- End of the day 14:30 EST time , Oil gave up 30 cents and closed 91.30
( may be has to give up , as Pipe line issue is fixed and first day after 3 day week end )
UPDATE 1-Oil trader takes control of 10 N.Sea oil cargoes ( see our blog for details of this)
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70H2C220110118
notes: Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:58pm EST ( Oil did not drop and kept up above 91.50 for long time, may this Cargo ship news may be factor
notes: Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:58pm EST ( Oil did not drop and kept up above 91.50 for long time, may this Cargo ship news may be factor
preMarket:
UPDATE 3-Alaska oil pipe restarts, normal production
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN179772220110118
---------
1/14/2011
Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $99 a barrel on Friday, failing to reach $100 before the front-month contract expired, but helping lift U.S. oil prices despite China's latest move to tighten credit ( asr: china thing -ve for OIL )
The strength of U.S. equities and Brent helped U.S. crude end higher after seesawing and being pressured early by China's move to lift lenders' reserve rate requirements by 50 basis points in its ongoing effort to tame inflation.
- this Brunt high close kept WTI not droppinng with China news and kept it above $91.50 level ..
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1/12/2011 Wedneday EIA oil inventory day:
oil up from 88.50 to 91.5 till day before
2/ EIA report is negative ( build over all , bearish 0)
3/ oil price moved to 92.30 ( bearish 1)
4/ down to 92 , then to 92.39 ( 2nd fail to break 92.50 , bearish 2)
5/ at 1030 am push to 92.20
6/ then at 1115 got margin guys by pushing down to 91.40
7/ then up to 91.85 at close ( last 15 min )
on 1/13/2011:
1/ moring to 92.32
2/ then down to 91.20
3/ then up to 92.20
4/ hover at 91.85 long time
5/ down to 90.90 ( at 1115 ) ( long at 91.40 , closed at 91.00 , CL )
6/ then push to 91.45 ( last 15 minn ) ( 91.10 to 91.40 ride QM sold )
- piple line issue easing
- job cliam numbers are bad so negative for oil
- forexyard , guy gave -ve technical see saved .
-----------------------
JUN-25-10 Friday
asr: SO AS PER THIS today unwarrented rally is due to funds buying to cash expected hurricane , so i paid for my short from 77.40 to 78.80
b) if hURRICANE DOES NOT HIT in next few days then oil will give back those 2 dollars back ..
c) DX lost .400 today , so EURO gained and SP gained 7 points ..
d) even oil gain was more than EURO/SP gains on JUN/24 so this hurricane rally started yesterday
e) on every Monday/friday there are not normal days , so thing or the other will happen to push or pull the price ( + or - of $2 ) -- test this .. ( Lesson 2)
lesson 1: when 77.40 to 77.05 maintained for 2 hours , I would have sensed some ting going on as 77.00 is not breached .. if it is normal EURO/SPY it would have breached 77.0 in that 2 hour period .
Crude oil up 3.1%, gasoline rallies 3.4%
AlertEmailPrintBy Claudia Assis
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil and gasoline futures jumped on Friday, as investors rushed to add energy products to their portfolios on worries they would miss price increases ahead of a worrying storm set to hit the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Crude for August delivery added $2.35 to settle at $78.86 a barrel. Gasoline for August delivery rose 7 cents to $2.15 a barrel, also helped by fears of the storm.
------------------------------
Feb. 5, 2010 Crude oil briefly slides below $70
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude oil futures briefly slipped under $70 a barrel on Friday, as the dollar hit an 8-month high against the euro, amid continued jitters over the debt woes of several European countries. Crude oil for March delivery was last down $2.58, or 3.7%, at $70.50 a barrel. It briefly plunged more than 4.5% to $69.50 a barrel. "The bubble of euphoria that lifted markets since March of last year has burst," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy trading MFGlobal
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Crude Oil Diverging with respect to DOllarin this video this guy says , oil is not increasing in propotionate to dollar , it is diverging , we may not know the reasons why but he said it can mean ONE of 2 things
1) DOllar by stop dropping soon
2) OIL is NOT in a rally season that is DEC,JAN,FEB are OIL stay LOW season
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from Jim letter on 1/4/2010
-----------------
Edit
*********************
A reversal is in order because
1)We held the long term support as shown
2)$70 was not breached convincingly
3)A retracement for the $7 drop(from $77) is in order
4)Bullish candle stick pattern as shown
5) asr: on friday , Quantifiableedges and Mr. K said 'DECember option expiry week ' is postive 80% of the time . With this I should have got clues .
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=f01a3c326003b0306263e581ca2e9e9f&postid=2667669
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1/"Instead of living through a prolonged price crash, OPEC has managed to keep oil prices in the $70 to $80 range during the worst Western [U.S., Europe, Japan] recession in 75 years," said Byron King, editor of Energy & Scarcity Investor, published by Agora Financial LLC.
And at these prices, "the Saudis are bringing in enough oil revenue to fund their budget -- not too much, not too little," he said.
2/ In fact, prices have been trading between $80 and $70 for the past 7 weeks. That's probably about as stable as oil can get.
"Economic data remains tepid, inventories are high, OPEC production compliance is still relatively solid, and large spare capacity is in place," said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC.
"We seem to be close to a relative near-term equilibrium," he said.
Rocking the boat
On the other hand, when something's too good to be true, it usually is. It hasn't been an uneventful journey to get to this point and there are a lot of factors in the market that can still shake things up.
"OPEC believes that the price level is justified by improving demand but in reality, the price is what it is because of the effects of economic stimulus and the weak dollar," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PFGBest.
Now, the "biggest challenge for OPEC is not to produce oil faster than the recovery warrants or they could add to ... a global oil glut," he said.
----
1/Early Tuesday, OPEC revised higher its forecast for world oil demand next year by 70,000 barrels a day, to 85.13 million barrels, citing demand from developing countries such as China and India.
2/ In foreign-exchange trading, the dollar made fresh gains, limiting the rise in oil. A stronger greenback tends to take away some of the appeal of hard assets such as oil and gold.
3/ "What you're seeing is short covering ahead of the numbers" on weekly inventories, said Scott Meyers, branch manager for the Pioneer Futures division of MF Global.
4/ Analysts polled by Platts Monday forecast crude-oil inventories fell by 2 million barrels in the week ended Friday.
( Jim ritter letter PM letter said same thing )
However, the cartel said the pace of recovery in developed countries, especially in the U.S., remained at risk and could dampen demand. The oil cartel will hold its next meeting in Angola on Dec. 22.
Despite Tuesday's action, "$70 will probably represent the ceiling rather than a floor," cautioned Tom Kloza, lead oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, in an interview from Houston.
( asr: track this guy and other this kind of analyst/trader comments , see if we can get historic comments from some site atleast CNBC historic )
OPEC members have been actually producing more than their publicly stated quotas, adding to global supply while the economic recovery in the U.S. is still tenuous.
( Pfgbest phil said it yesterday )
"Supply-demand forces are very much overweighted toward more supply," Kloza said.
Analysts predict the EIA and API will show an increase in gasoline inventories of 1.5 million barrels as demand remains low. But analysts foresee a drop of 750,000 barrels in U.S. distillate stocks
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The bullish tendencies over the last 25 years have been exceptionally strong. And as we now see above, not only do you have strong indications that this upcoming week carries an upside edge, but also out as far as 3 weeks.
Mr. K said
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, December options expiration week the S&P has been up 21 of the last 28 years with an average gain of +0.83% and historically has been the strongest week of December. Obviously, the key will be to break and hold above the trading range above S&P 1113. In my view, if we’re going to see a break out before year-end, it will be this week.
-----------
Jim said
- down side pressure , If EIA bearish then to 66
- but next week they can push to 71-72 easily , I think so ...
--------------
Dubious Dubai
12/14/2009
Dubai gets a bailout and the risk appetite tries to come back but oil is still being held back by a load of supply. Supply gluts put oil back into a rut on signs that OPEC is cheating more each day. OPEC compliance to production targets fell to just 58% which is the worst score for the cartel since the financial crisis began. The biggest cheaters were Iran and Angola but also, believe it or not, Nigeria's production has come back much faster than expected after the country was plagued with rebel attacks on its infrastructure.
The reasons for the cheating on production quotas within OPEC are varied. There is the greed angle but part of it is there are those who actually want to purchase the oil. Oh sure it is easy to comply with your production targets when there are no buyers for your oil but not so much when you can actually find some buyers.
Speaking of buyers, there were plenty of them for the auction on Iraq’s oil fields. The problem is that US companies were not among them. The big winners for Iraq’s oil fields went to Russia’s Lukoil and Gazprom, Europe’s Royal Dutch Shell, China’s CNPC and Malaysia’s Petronas. According to the Financial Times these companies have promised to raise Iraq’s oil production by a whopping 8.5 million barrels per day which is more than Saudi Arabia produces today.
Oil is still probing for a low near $65 longer term but may have trouble short term hitting that target. Today it looks like a range kind of a day so baring any breaking news, you would be selling if the market if it makes new highs on the day and buying on new lows for day trades. For a position trade we prefer the short side. I think a position in the 74-75 range that would be great and 68 will be tough stuff on the downside.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Stragegy sessions / Interviews
Corey Strategy session
take away points:
1/ he said he follow COT and it is really helpful in market direction
2/ he use 3/10 oscillator as all-in-one oscillator
Many charts you share focus on divergences using the 3/10 oscillator. What is this?
CoreyRosenbloom:
Good question, Betty. I'm not a big indicator person (I used to be though!) and so I've settled on using the 3/10 Oscillator as a guide to tell me the momentum characteristics of the market....
3/ he is big fan of finding divergence
take away points:
1/ he said he follow COT and it is really helpful in market direction
2/ he use 3/10 oscillator as all-in-one oscillator
Many charts you share focus on divergences using the 3/10 oscillator. What is this?
CoreyRosenbloom:
Good question, Betty. I'm not a big indicator person (I used to be though!) and so I've settled on using the 3/10 Oscillator as a guide to tell me the momentum characteristics of the market....
3/ he is big fan of finding divergence
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Trading Timers
Have these timers
1. CT ( COTs Timer)
2. ST Seassionals Timer: MRCI ( scan html web page and load data in DB or enter Table data on paper into webform and into DB )
3. JT Japanese Candle stick Timer: patterns ( program patterns in stockfinder )
4. VT: Volume spread analysis ( tradeguider)
5. UT Utimate timer: our VP timer : this many combo of short/confirmed trend/NI etc.
6. RT Reference Analysis Timer RAT ( look at RAT patterns and enter power rating with DATE and symbol in file )
RAT1: ATR/Stochastic/Liner regression/trend lines
RAT2: 2009/2003 recovery reference
RAT3: quantifiable edges , Sentimenttrader
RAT4: Gitu pick bargains ( below 20 to 40 of Guru pick prices )
RAT5: IT: Market Internals timer : see T2108 at the bottom of this post
7. FT : fundamental Timer: Jim/high tower report/pfgbest energy/ other fundamental news letter input
8. PT : price Forecast timers ( for ex: for OIL Goldman said 2009-year-end target as 85 in JUN/09 , said same 85 year end in OCT/09 ( convert these to everyday Data file and have plot )
9. NT: NewsTimer ( keep a summary of News with data and display after DATE expand )
10. TT : Timer of Timers ( this is complex weithage of all above)
Have all of the timers as data files and display on stockfinder in a vertical monitor view one below other in one chart to get big picture view.
- even fundamental data has to go into files like JIM/high tower/ etc. giving rating like 1 to 5 etc..
---
OIL specific Timers:
OST: Oil Stocks Timer : get data from from EIA site as excell spread sheet and save it as .csv then have PHP to expand it for all DATEs . Reference is bleow link.
http://21cvision.blogspot.com/2008/10/over-last-four-weeks-eia-us-govt.html
- Have stocks Built-up , 5-year OIL stocks difference , 5-year gasoline stock diff etc. Have all of them as .csv files and display
------------
see Guru picks
asr: in a Sense what Mr. K is doing same using levarged 'Wordly wisdom' like sentimenttrader, ATR/Stochastics , Innovanalysitcs , keep a big list of repetable tradable stocks with Stockscreen machine etc..
- Mr. K is doing the Wordly wisdom in short-term mostly with Technical/Reference/Setup analysis.
“I believe in … mastering the best that other people have figured out, [rather than] sitting down and trying to dream it up yourself … You won’t find it that hard if you go at it Darwinlike, step by step with curious persistence. You’ll be amazed at how good you can get … It’s a huge mistake not to absorb elementary worldly wisdom.”
Essentially, Munger is recommending that investors take the best that leading experts in many fields have come up with in an attempt to increase your overall level of “worldly wisdom”. This seems obvious except for the fact that few investors really seem to have taken the advice. Part of this has to do with the overwhelming amount of information available today, but it is a mistake to allow the sheer volume of information to prevent us from at least making the attempt.
------------
T2108
Just a few weeks ago we moved away from being oversold but now we’re sitting above the 80 level threshold in the T2108 (% of stocks above day pma). That level is not one I like to be aggressive with on the long side, even in raging bull markets.
----
There are 7 degrees within my timing indicator: very bearish, bearish, neutral with a bearish bias, neutral, neutral with a bullish bias, bullish, and very bullish.
asr: we need to keep this kind for OIL ...
Track Record:
*
7/8/08: Neutral (With A Bullish Bias)
*
6/26/08: Neutral
*
3/13/08: Neutral (With A Bearish Bias)
*
10/8/07: Neutral
*
8/13/07: Neutral (With A Bullish Bias)
*
7/26/07: Neutral
*
5/1/07: Neutral (With A Bearish Bias)
*
3/21/07: Neutral
*
2/26/07: Bearish
*
11/13/06: Neutral
1. CT ( COTs Timer)
2. ST Seassionals Timer: MRCI ( scan html web page and load data in DB or enter Table data on paper into webform and into DB )
3. JT Japanese Candle stick Timer: patterns ( program patterns in stockfinder )
4. VT: Volume spread analysis ( tradeguider)
5. UT Utimate timer: our VP timer : this many combo of short/confirmed trend/NI etc.
6. RT Reference Analysis Timer RAT ( look at RAT patterns and enter power rating with DATE and symbol in file )
RAT1: ATR/Stochastic/Liner regression/trend lines
RAT2: 2009/2003 recovery reference
RAT3: quantifiable edges , Sentimenttrader
RAT4: Gitu pick bargains ( below 20 to 40 of Guru pick prices )
RAT5: IT: Market Internals timer : see T2108 at the bottom of this post
7. FT : fundamental Timer: Jim/high tower report/pfgbest energy/ other fundamental news letter input
8. PT : price Forecast timers ( for ex: for OIL Goldman said 2009-year-end target as 85 in JUN/09 , said same 85 year end in OCT/09 ( convert these to everyday Data file and have plot )
9. NT: NewsTimer ( keep a summary of News with data and display after DATE expand )
10. TT : Timer of Timers ( this is complex weithage of all above)
Have all of the timers as data files and display on stockfinder in a vertical monitor view one below other in one chart to get big picture view.
- even fundamental data has to go into files like JIM/high tower/ etc. giving rating like 1 to 5 etc..
---
OIL specific Timers:
OST: Oil Stocks Timer : get data from from EIA site as excell spread sheet and save it as .csv then have PHP to expand it for all DATEs . Reference is bleow link.
http://21cvision.blogspot.com/2008/10/over-last-four-weeks-eia-us-govt.html
- Have stocks Built-up , 5-year OIL stocks difference , 5-year gasoline stock diff etc. Have all of them as .csv files and display
------------
see Guru picks
asr: in a Sense what Mr. K is doing same using levarged 'Wordly wisdom' like sentimenttrader, ATR/Stochastics , Innovanalysitcs , keep a big list of repetable tradable stocks with Stockscreen machine etc..
- Mr. K is doing the Wordly wisdom in short-term mostly with Technical/Reference/Setup analysis.
“I believe in … mastering the best that other people have figured out, [rather than] sitting down and trying to dream it up yourself … You won’t find it that hard if you go at it Darwinlike, step by step with curious persistence. You’ll be amazed at how good you can get … It’s a huge mistake not to absorb elementary worldly wisdom.”
Essentially, Munger is recommending that investors take the best that leading experts in many fields have come up with in an attempt to increase your overall level of “worldly wisdom”. This seems obvious except for the fact that few investors really seem to have taken the advice. Part of this has to do with the overwhelming amount of information available today, but it is a mistake to allow the sheer volume of information to prevent us from at least making the attempt.
------------
T2108
Just a few weeks ago we moved away from being oversold but now we’re sitting above the 80 level threshold in the T2108 (% of stocks above day pma). That level is not one I like to be aggressive with on the long side, even in raging bull markets.
----
There are 7 degrees within my timing indicator: very bearish, bearish, neutral with a bearish bias, neutral, neutral with a bullish bias, bullish, and very bullish.
asr: we need to keep this kind for OIL ...
Track Record:
*
7/8/08: Neutral (With A Bullish Bias)
*
6/26/08: Neutral
*
3/13/08: Neutral (With A Bearish Bias)
*
10/8/07: Neutral
*
8/13/07: Neutral (With A Bullish Bias)
*
7/26/07: Neutral
*
5/1/07: Neutral (With A Bearish Bias)
*
3/21/07: Neutral
*
2/26/07: Bearish
*
11/13/06: Neutral
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Guru picks
asr: using this gurufocus and other sites to pick on the bargains ( at 20 to 40% below ) the what gurus already worked and picked should work good for long investor like 6 months to 1 year
---
Consensus Picks of Gurus
These stocks have been bought/sold by multiple gurus.
Bargains Candidates :
These stocks have been down more than 20% since our gurus bought or recommended to buy. They can be candidates for bargains. You may buy these stocks at more than 20% discount from the prices our gurus bought.
Gurus' Option Holdings
------
asr: Add this kind of list and track when it goes too cheap to add to GURU bargains.
similar way we can add from Forbes list, Kiplinger etc.. track on site and alert when it drops more than 20 to 40% for pick.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/buylist.html
-------------
other guru soruces
http://cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
http://www.tipstraders.com/tipster.php?tp=409&lm=20
------------
Strategies for Achieving Economic Moats
worldly wisdom
asr: in a Sense what Mr. K is doing same using levarged 'Wordly wisdom' like sentimenttrader, ATR/Stochastics , Innovanalysitcs , keep a big list of repetable tradable stocks with Stockscreen machine etc..
- Mr. K is doing the Wordly wisdom in short-term mostly with Technical/Reference/Setup analysis.
“I believe in … mastering the best that other people have figured out, [rather than] sitting down and trying to dream it up yourself … You won’t find it that hard if you go at it Darwinlike, step by step with curious persistence. You’ll be amazed at how good you can get … It’s a huge mistake not to absorb elementary worldly wisdom.”
Essentially, Munger is recommending that investors take the best that leading experts in many fields have come up with in an attempt to increase your overall level of “worldly wisdom”. This seems obvious except for the fact that few investors really seem to have taken the advice. Part of this has to do with the overwhelming amount of information available today, but it is a mistake to allow the sheer volume of information to prevent us from at least making the attempt.
---
Consensus Picks of Gurus
These stocks have been bought/sold by multiple gurus.
Bargains Candidates :
These stocks have been down more than 20% since our gurus bought or recommended to buy. They can be candidates for bargains. You may buy these stocks at more than 20% discount from the prices our gurus bought.
Gurus' Option Holdings
------
asr: Add this kind of list and track when it goes too cheap to add to GURU bargains.
similar way we can add from Forbes list, Kiplinger etc.. track on site and alert when it drops more than 20 to 40% for pick.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/buylist.html
-------------
other guru soruces
http://cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
http://www.tipstraders.com/tipster.php?tp=409&lm=20
------------
Strategies for Achieving Economic Moats
worldly wisdom
asr: in a Sense what Mr. K is doing same using levarged 'Wordly wisdom' like sentimenttrader, ATR/Stochastics , Innovanalysitcs , keep a big list of repetable tradable stocks with Stockscreen machine etc..
- Mr. K is doing the Wordly wisdom in short-term mostly with Technical/Reference/Setup analysis.
“I believe in … mastering the best that other people have figured out, [rather than] sitting down and trying to dream it up yourself … You won’t find it that hard if you go at it Darwinlike, step by step with curious persistence. You’ll be amazed at how good you can get … It’s a huge mistake not to absorb elementary worldly wisdom.”
Essentially, Munger is recommending that investors take the best that leading experts in many fields have come up with in an attempt to increase your overall level of “worldly wisdom”. This seems obvious except for the fact that few investors really seem to have taken the advice. Part of this has to do with the overwhelming amount of information available today, but it is a mistake to allow the sheer volume of information to prevent us from at least making the attempt.
Stock Research, rating and analysis
----------
About
A Brief History - honest guy
Forbes 200 Best Small Companies Project
asr: this kind of research by taking one of famous (Forbes list) can be great project for MBA finance guys..
Fundamental Business Valuation Process
Everybody has a method of researching and analyzing companies. Whether we abide to our own set rules or not, the more important point is that we have a process that we adhere to. Whether you day trade, look at technicals or do it mechanically, a process which you can follow and continually improve is a definite requirement.
The following is a process I (usually) stick to except for special situations such as arbitrage, spinoffs and net nets.
----------
This fundamental data is for long term guys ( like a year or so ), I am finding more profits are finding stocks which are breaking out of congestion range ( due to good earnings etc as stockbee post said )
----
This site provides some basic fundamental info on stocks , premium membership gives more details
NVDA
AMD
---------
asr: I looked at schwab site ( as account holder) some time ago, they have good STock analysis report ( provided by 3 rd party)
About
A Brief History - honest guy
Forbes 200 Best Small Companies Project
asr: this kind of research by taking one of famous (Forbes list) can be great project for MBA finance guys..
Fundamental Business Valuation Process
Everybody has a method of researching and analyzing companies. Whether we abide to our own set rules or not, the more important point is that we have a process that we adhere to. Whether you day trade, look at technicals or do it mechanically, a process which you can follow and continually improve is a definite requirement.
The following is a process I (usually) stick to except for special situations such as arbitrage, spinoffs and net nets.
----------
This fundamental data is for long term guys ( like a year or so ), I am finding more profits are finding stocks which are breaking out of congestion range ( due to good earnings etc as stockbee post said )
----
This site provides some basic fundamental info on stocks , premium membership gives more details
NVDA
AMD
---------
asr: I looked at schwab site ( as account holder) some time ago, they have good STock analysis report ( provided by 3 rd party)
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Trading Network
---------
look at this bzbtrader blog, see comments section , these traders are already doing 'networking' to test different ideas and share workload, joining this kind of group and proposing new projects shown below (RMO) etc.. will give better results than just going to Elitetrader and starting with new guys .
http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/2008/08/williams-r-trading-model.html
Offer 'Trading Network' group on Elitetrader post :
---------------------------------------------------
pitch : if you take making a software project or granting a big loan to a company , all these are 'group efforts' , trading should be same .
- ask MR. K if somebody from that group can be contracted for 'networking' since we take many idea of Mr. K to research further .
tools: google finance spreadsheet, google presentation (ppt) , google word
projects:
1) coding Japanese Candle sticks patterns based on the book
http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Candlestick-Patterns-Stephen-Bigalow/dp/0977375706/ref=pd_sim_b_3
2) coding RMO to flat CSV file: The Rahul Mohindar Oscillator (RMO) released in with MetaStock 10 has become one of the most popular features of MetaStock. MetaStock 11 offers 6 NEW alerts for the RMO, including: buy above high, sell below low, new blue bar, new red bar, entering bullish zone, and entering bearish zone.
http://www.equis.com/whc/MS11.aspx
3) creating COT flat file ( for all DATES) base on below cotstimer.com data
4) these RMO, Japanese candle stick are created as flat file CSV file uploaded to a server and members will download and use in their software ( TS, Ninja , stockfinder etc..) as indicators ..
III: people Strengths: people need to bring one strength area to the table, where they can contribute with out much effort as they are masters of that area.
a) coding b) speciality (ex. Japanese candle or RMO )
IV: process: weekly discussion , evaluating diff. systems ( ex. diff japanese candle sticks) , finalizing project , and project-manager assigns tasks ( in google spread sheet )
-------------
1. CT ( http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/)
2. ST Seassionals Timer: MRCI.com
3. JT Japanese Candle stick Timer: patterns
for the timers 1 and 2 work with cotstimer.com and tuckerreport.com
http://tuckerreport.com/indicators/cot-data
a) propose you offer back testing combining COTS data ( if provided in text files) with http://www.mrci.com/ seassionals to improve the trade timing ( entry , exit ) and profits.
b) network with both cotstimer and tucker and add JT with another networker etc..
c) all these 3 can be combined in stockfinder or tradestation (tucker uses this one)
---------
- Mr. K has group of seven in mentoring so they must be his innter group for discussion.
- Brent said professional trader edge is their networking group
- asr: so we need one, try to collect people, seems this Tucker is one of them , experience of 30 yeras and has time ( based on his asking to buy coffee if you like article ).
-----------
Tucker Views
Short term trading can be exhausting, so for a few years I turned to position trading while I ran another business. I am now back to trading full time for my own account. I am not affiliated with any firm. I am not a financial or trading advisor. I simply trade for my own account only.
Intermarket Analysis
My conclusion is that each market should be charted and analyzed individually. Inter-market relationships are fun for discussion, and for financial journalist, but I don’t believe they can help in making trading decisions.
asr: Tucker views
Tucker Books
-----------------
-http://tuckerreport.com/books/ - has some good old books on commodities, I have this book below. Turcker list is good source for OLD commodity foucused books http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0934380260?ie=UTF8&tag=tuckrepo-20&link_code=as3&camp=211189&creative=373489&creativeASIN=0934380260
look at this bzbtrader blog, see comments section , these traders are already doing 'networking' to test different ideas and share workload, joining this kind of group and proposing new projects shown below (RMO) etc.. will give better results than just going to Elitetrader and starting with new guys .
http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/2008/08/williams-r-trading-model.html
Offer 'Trading Network' group on Elitetrader post :
---------------------------------------------------
pitch : if you take making a software project or granting a big loan to a company , all these are 'group efforts' , trading should be same .
- ask MR. K if somebody from that group can be contracted for 'networking' since we take many idea of Mr. K to research further .
tools: google finance spreadsheet, google presentation (ppt) , google word
projects:
1) coding Japanese Candle sticks patterns based on the book
http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Candlestick-Patterns-Stephen-Bigalow/dp/0977375706/ref=pd_sim_b_3
2) coding RMO to flat CSV file: The Rahul Mohindar Oscillator (RMO) released in with MetaStock 10 has become one of the most popular features of MetaStock. MetaStock 11 offers 6 NEW alerts for the RMO, including: buy above high, sell below low, new blue bar, new red bar, entering bullish zone, and entering bearish zone.
http://www.equis.com/whc/MS11.aspx
3) creating COT flat file ( for all DATES) base on below cotstimer.com data
4) these RMO, Japanese candle stick are created as flat file CSV file uploaded to a server and members will download and use in their software ( TS, Ninja , stockfinder etc..) as indicators ..
III: people Strengths: people need to bring one strength area to the table, where they can contribute with out much effort as they are masters of that area.
a) coding b) speciality (ex. Japanese candle or RMO )
IV: process: weekly discussion , evaluating diff. systems ( ex. diff japanese candle sticks) , finalizing project , and project-manager assigns tasks ( in google spread sheet )
-------------
1. CT ( http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/)
2. ST Seassionals Timer: MRCI.com
3. JT Japanese Candle stick Timer: patterns
for the timers 1 and 2 work with cotstimer.com and tuckerreport.com
http://tuckerreport.com/indicators/cot-data
a) propose you offer back testing combining COTS data ( if provided in text files) with http://www.mrci.com/ seassionals to improve the trade timing ( entry , exit ) and profits.
b) network with both cotstimer and tucker and add JT with another networker etc..
c) all these 3 can be combined in stockfinder or tradestation (tucker uses this one)
---------
- Mr. K has group of seven in mentoring so they must be his innter group for discussion.
- Brent said professional trader edge is their networking group
- asr: so we need one, try to collect people, seems this Tucker is one of them , experience of 30 yeras and has time ( based on his asking to buy coffee if you like article ).
-----------
Tucker Views
Short term trading can be exhausting, so for a few years I turned to position trading while I ran another business. I am now back to trading full time for my own account. I am not affiliated with any firm. I am not a financial or trading advisor. I simply trade for my own account only.
Intermarket Analysis
My conclusion is that each market should be charted and analyzed individually. Inter-market relationships are fun for discussion, and for financial journalist, but I don’t believe they can help in making trading decisions.
asr: Tucker views
Tucker Books
-----------------
-http://tuckerreport.com/books/ - has some good old books on commodities, I have this book below. Turcker list is good source for OLD commodity foucused books http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0934380260?ie=UTF8&tag=tuckrepo-20&link_code=as3&camp=211189&creative=373489&creativeASIN=0934380260
Saturday, December 5, 2009
COT Commitment of Traders
---------
Corey on COT
Do you use Commitments of Traders data? How large of significance do you place on that type of information?
CoreyRosenbloom:
I do, and the data can be very helpful. I've started publishing these charts in addition to my standard analysis in my Weekly Intermarket Reports and have found those insights to be very valuable...
CoreyRosenbloom:
This chart came from last week's report:
CoreyRosenbloom:
We want to compare the green line - "Professional Speculators" to the Red line - "small speculators" (non-reportables)...
CoreyRosenbloom:
The professionals (green) became net long just before the March 2009 low while the red line - public - started getting net short...
CoreyRosenbloom:
this chart only shows from July forward, but you can see that the professionals are net long 161,000 @ES contracts (as of last week) while the 'non-reportables' are net
CoreyRosenbloom:
Despite all the chart evidence like the divergences into the 50% Fibonacci line of the bear market at 1,121... professionals are reported to be net long while the 'public' is reported to be net short...
CoreyRosenbloom:
Like market internals such as breadth, etc, the CoT data can give you insights into what's "really" going on in terms of the supply/demand relationship, and honestly that is what moves price - not indicators...
----------
Invest With the Smart Money (Or the Dumb)
I use the net percentage-of-open-interest position of each group of traders to get signals - or the trader group's total open interest (long plus short positioning).
COTs Timer: How It Works
User Comments on the post
Portifolio shown updated every week with net positions
http://cotstimer-portfolio.blogspot.com/2009/01/long-gold-bullion-20.html
----------
Commitments of Traders – Is it a Useful Tool to Time Markets?
Aug 19th, 2008 by Doug Tucker Printer Friendly
So it seems that of the three groups of traders, the obvious group worth watching to stay of the correct side of a trade is that of the large trader. In a trending mode this would seem to be the correct assumption. It seems wise to follow the money going into a market with the group that is speculating on the direction that price seems to be moving, rather that betting with the group that has other reasons for being in the market
The lowest sub-graph is a stochastic based on the large trader net position with a lookback period of one year. You can see that when the stochastic reached the lower reference line (blue ellipse drawn) that prices started the next leg of the long uptrend. On the right side of the chart you can see when the trend turned into a bubble that the large trader net position started to show signs of divergence. It was somewhat subtle looking at the actual COT data, however the stochastic displayed a very clear divergence pattern. The large traders as a group were not increasing their long position at that last high.
In many instances the turning point of a market will occur by an extreme reading in the large trader net position, and then a sudden reversal, indicating that the funds that have been fully invested are now heading for the exits. Most often there is a corresponding opposite extreme reading in the commercial net position with a quick uptick indicating that the commercials are beginning to cover their shorts. This is always very clear in hindsight, but in real time this can be deceptive. What can look like a top in the market can be nothing more than some profit taking with the large traders eventually moving back into the market in even larger in size, with prices pushing higher that what seems logical. One can often trade the resumption of a trend by keeping close watch on the large trader net figure as viewed by the stochastic. If the uptrend is still intact, often an oversold reading of the stochastic will produce a good entry point. But it is important to keep a watch on the pattern of new highs if accompanied by lower highs, or divergences, in the large trader net position, viewed either directly from the COT large trader net position line, or by the stochastic indicator of that line.
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php - at the bottom you have COT sub graph window
- http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php?c=cot
I also use the COT reports but I use the ready-made graphs available at –
http://www.timingcharts.com/
Your mention of the use of stochastics to detect trend changes in the COT reports is very useful.
----
- there was one blog specalized in COT , check I noted somewhere in our blogs
http://www.amazon.com/Commitments-Traders-Bible-Insider-Intelligence/dp/0470178426/ref=pd_cp_b_3
http://www.amazon.com/Trade-Stocks-Commodities-Insiders-Secrets/dp/0471741256 -- seems I have this book
Corey on COT
Do you use Commitments of Traders data? How large of significance do you place on that type of information?
CoreyRosenbloom:
I do, and the data can be very helpful. I've started publishing these charts in addition to my standard analysis in my Weekly Intermarket Reports and have found those insights to be very valuable...
CoreyRosenbloom:
This chart came from last week's report:
CoreyRosenbloom:
We want to compare the green line - "Professional Speculators" to the Red line - "small speculators" (non-reportables)...
CoreyRosenbloom:
The professionals (green) became net long just before the March 2009 low while the red line - public - started getting net short...
CoreyRosenbloom:
this chart only shows from July forward, but you can see that the professionals are net long 161,000 @ES contracts (as of last week) while the 'non-reportables' are net
CoreyRosenbloom:
Despite all the chart evidence like the divergences into the 50% Fibonacci line of the bear market at 1,121... professionals are reported to be net long while the 'public' is reported to be net short...
CoreyRosenbloom:
Like market internals such as breadth, etc, the CoT data can give you insights into what's "really" going on in terms of the supply/demand relationship, and honestly that is what moves price - not indicators...
----------
Invest With the Smart Money (Or the Dumb)
I use the net percentage-of-open-interest position of each group of traders to get signals - or the trader group's total open interest (long plus short positioning).
COTs Timer: How It Works
User Comments on the post
Portifolio shown updated every week with net positions
http://cotstimer-portfolio.blogspot.com/2009/01/long-gold-bullion-20.html
----------
Commitments of Traders – Is it a Useful Tool to Time Markets?
Aug 19th, 2008 by Doug Tucker Printer Friendly
So it seems that of the three groups of traders, the obvious group worth watching to stay of the correct side of a trade is that of the large trader. In a trending mode this would seem to be the correct assumption. It seems wise to follow the money going into a market with the group that is speculating on the direction that price seems to be moving, rather that betting with the group that has other reasons for being in the market
The lowest sub-graph is a stochastic based on the large trader net position with a lookback period of one year. You can see that when the stochastic reached the lower reference line (blue ellipse drawn) that prices started the next leg of the long uptrend. On the right side of the chart you can see when the trend turned into a bubble that the large trader net position started to show signs of divergence. It was somewhat subtle looking at the actual COT data, however the stochastic displayed a very clear divergence pattern. The large traders as a group were not increasing their long position at that last high.
In many instances the turning point of a market will occur by an extreme reading in the large trader net position, and then a sudden reversal, indicating that the funds that have been fully invested are now heading for the exits. Most often there is a corresponding opposite extreme reading in the commercial net position with a quick uptick indicating that the commercials are beginning to cover their shorts. This is always very clear in hindsight, but in real time this can be deceptive. What can look like a top in the market can be nothing more than some profit taking with the large traders eventually moving back into the market in even larger in size, with prices pushing higher that what seems logical. One can often trade the resumption of a trend by keeping close watch on the large trader net figure as viewed by the stochastic. If the uptrend is still intact, often an oversold reading of the stochastic will produce a good entry point. But it is important to keep a watch on the pattern of new highs if accompanied by lower highs, or divergences, in the large trader net position, viewed either directly from the COT large trader net position line, or by the stochastic indicator of that line.
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php - at the bottom you have COT sub graph window
- http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php?c=cot
I also use the COT reports but I use the ready-made graphs available at –
http://www.timingcharts.com/
Your mention of the use of stochastics to detect trend changes in the COT reports is very useful.
----
- there was one blog specalized in COT , check I noted somewhere in our blogs
http://www.amazon.com/Commitments-Traders-Bible-Insider-Intelligence/dp/0470178426/ref=pd_cp_b_3
http://www.amazon.com/Trade-Stocks-Commodities-Insiders-Secrets/dp/0471741256 -- seems I have this book
Thursday, December 3, 2009
trade software reviews
VantagePoint reviews
Posted By: TradersLog
-------------
The Fusion Trader’s Secret Weapon
A Review of VectorVest Online Stock Trading Software
By Matt Blackman
asr: this vectorvest combines both fundamental and technial . Mr. K uses fudamental based scanners AAII etc.. check those also ..
If the efficient market hypothesis were true, great traders like T. Boone Pickens, Steve Cohen, Paul Tudor Jones and Dan Zanger (to name but a few) would not make as much money as they do. Those at the top of their game win consistently by looking at the market in a different way than the majority. The very best traders are masters of the technical and fundamental; they utilize statistics, quantitative analysis and rely on a variety of factors from macro-economic to micro-technical. In short, the fusion traders use whatever works and do not limit themselves to any single field of market study.
So why are there so few stock charting and analysis programs that do an effective job of handling fundamentals and technicals together? Most utilize one technique thereby requiring the trader/investor to master a number of programs. But is this absolutely necessary?
Advertised as a program that does an excellent job in addressing the above challenges, does VectorVest live up to expectation?
Conclusion
There are a number of online and computerized stock screeners on the market today. The challenge is that most concentrate on either fundamentals or technicals; few do an adequate job of integrating the two together for the new breed of fusion trader or investor.
VectorVest combines fundamental and technical search parameters in a fashion that allows the user to narrow his or her search so that only stocks meeting the complex combination of fundamental and technical criteria are produced. On top of well-known performance ratios, the program provides some very useful proprietary indicators to help streamline the process.
VectorVest is not perfect. Since it is a web-based program, it can be slower than a machined-based program, and the speed at which it moves will depend on the speed of your Internet connection. Another challenge with the program is that there are so many functions and possibilities available, it can seem daunting to the new user. It is not for the faint of heart or uncommitted market player. But from this author’s perspective, such shortfalls were far outweighed by the program’s benefits.
Posted By: TradersLog
-------------
The Fusion Trader’s Secret Weapon
A Review of VectorVest Online Stock Trading Software
By Matt Blackman
asr: this vectorvest combines both fundamental and technial . Mr. K uses fudamental based scanners AAII etc.. check those also ..
If the efficient market hypothesis were true, great traders like T. Boone Pickens, Steve Cohen, Paul Tudor Jones and Dan Zanger (to name but a few) would not make as much money as they do. Those at the top of their game win consistently by looking at the market in a different way than the majority. The very best traders are masters of the technical and fundamental; they utilize statistics, quantitative analysis and rely on a variety of factors from macro-economic to micro-technical. In short, the fusion traders use whatever works and do not limit themselves to any single field of market study.
So why are there so few stock charting and analysis programs that do an effective job of handling fundamentals and technicals together? Most utilize one technique thereby requiring the trader/investor to master a number of programs. But is this absolutely necessary?
Advertised as a program that does an excellent job in addressing the above challenges, does VectorVest live up to expectation?
Conclusion
There are a number of online and computerized stock screeners on the market today. The challenge is that most concentrate on either fundamentals or technicals; few do an adequate job of integrating the two together for the new breed of fusion trader or investor.
VectorVest combines fundamental and technical search parameters in a fashion that allows the user to narrow his or her search so that only stocks meeting the complex combination of fundamental and technical criteria are produced. On top of well-known performance ratios, the program provides some very useful proprietary indicators to help streamline the process.
VectorVest is not perfect. Since it is a web-based program, it can be slower than a machined-based program, and the speed at which it moves will depend on the speed of your Internet connection. Another challenge with the program is that there are so many functions and possibilities available, it can seem daunting to the new user. It is not for the faint of heart or uncommitted market player. But from this author’s perspective, such shortfalls were far outweighed by the program’s benefits.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Trading Definitions
-----------------
Trading Is a Different Profession
- He says in other professions, you learn theory and apply and it works most of the time ( carpeting , engineer ) , but it may not work 50% of the time in Trading ..
----------
success formula looks something like: Quality Input + Hard Work + Discipline + Some Originality = Success in trading -- or any other business
If you want anything to actually change or to move ahead in your life you actually have to do it yourself, you can´t sit there and wait for somebody or talk about what you might want, you know, you should actually keep dreams and desires inside and let them burn a little bit, and then they might come true'
View quotes by Russell Crowe
http://www.quotes.ubr.com/quotes-alphabetical/y-quotes/yourself-quotes.aspx
-----------
1. Trading Skill development: how you defint it
A systematic program of learning that emphasizes pattern recognition, an understanding of market movement across time frames, intermarket relationships, sound execution of trade ideas, and risk management.
Philosophy:The following lines summarize our philosophy about markets and trading.
2. We live in a word of probabilities, Successful market forecasting is simply trying to put those probabilities in our favor. Our disciplined approach of showing market short term strength/weakness can and will consistently lead to profitable trades.
3. Trading success is a function of possessing a statistical edge in the market and being able to exploit this edge with regularity. Trading failure is most likely to occur when you trade subjective, untested methods that possess no valid edge or when you are incapable of consistently applying edges that are available.
4. Keep technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.
5. Discipline, consistency and patience are the traits that will be rewarded when investing in markets.
----
Mr. K post ref.
Counter-Trade
If price should do something but does NOT do it, then it can lead to a more powerful trade in the OPPOSITE direction - which has implications for type of day structure and future opportunities. You can't forecast trade failures in advance, but when they occur, they can put you on the right side of the market while other inexperienced traders scramble to figure out what went wrong and stop-out in confusion." - Corey Rosenbloom
--------
How to Be Yourself
------------------
Trading advice given to a newbie when asked
1.) Look deep within yourself and determine if you have the tenacity to get kicked in the balls over and over – and then be able to stand up tall and repeat “Thank You Sir may I have another”
2.) Take any ego you have and shove it up your ass – it will not serve you in trading…, and while your at it shove your opinion up there also
3.) Confidence is not ego – learn the difference
4.) Start a journal and a trading plan – these will be about the only books you “need”
5.) Determine the type of trader you want to be (hint profitable is not a choice at this point) and stick to it
6.) Trading ain’t rocket science – price going up – buy it… price going down – short it – figure out how to determine what price is doing with the least amount of crap on your charts
7.) No one knows what the hell the market or a stock will do today, tomorrow, in 5 minutes – so don’t ask, and don’t act like you know
8.) The more you learn from books, gurus, shills – the more you’ll have to unlearn later (your decision on how hard you want to make it on yourself)
9.) The more time frames – of the same stock you’re trading – the better – to a point
10.) Preserve capital FIRST, make money SECOND – ALWAYS
11.) Trading is not about being right, it is “ONLY” about making money
12.) Learn to shut off the voices in your head – they are of no help
13.) Everything you read, or are told – is not yours until you work to make it so (now figure out what the hell I just said)
14.) Trading is a lot of work – don’t kid yourself – many broke people have
15.) I’m giving you advice now – during market hours I’ll take your money – and not say a word
16.) Trading profitably is not the destination, it is only a journey
17.) You WILL trade EXACTLY who you are inside – you have no choice in the matter
Now I’ve shared a starting point – as with all matters – the decision on what to do with it – is yours
Successful Journey to You should you decide to pursue it – but don’t pursue it lightly
RN
This is the best advice so far. It is obvious that it has been wtitten by a trader who has taken the 'journey'.
I would just add to this that it is indeed a journey that will test your limits. As you can see you have only ignited a powder keg of egotistic backbiting and silly bitching-which is 90% of the content of this forum.
1) My personal advice would be to get a night shift job, spend as much time in front of the markets as you can amd learn to trade using price action (find the good books and threads relating to this).
2) Price action is far more realistic and effective than trying to find miracle indicators.
3) Then paper trade until you have a profitibable system.
4) After this you will trade live on a small account and you will find that when it comes to real losses you will probably start losing when you expected to win. This is okay, it is the start of the real slog to control your emotions and this is the keystone: without it the whole building crumbles.
5) You are young and ambitiuos but you need patience, dedication and humility. Many young people have not got this-be warned. But it can be done. Good luck.
----------------
Trading system of me
asr: on this post RedneckTrader said he has 2 teenage sons..
Sir
IMHO - Very good question you’ve raised
My biggest obstacle was, and remains to this day – me
Below is an excerpt from a document I created to help me get the hell out of my own way
I’ve removed some items I don’t wish to share – otherwise I hope it doesn’t come across too egotistical – it’s not meant to be.
Take Care
Redneck
The System of Me
My Trading Truth
•I trade who I am
•My trading is a mirror into my soul
To remain consistent with my trading truth I will;
•Maintain spirituality (inner peace)
•Journal (To make me distinguish reality – from what I “think” reality is)
•Exercise
•Decide each day – who I am – who I will be – what I want to have happen
•Completely accept that my only enemy – is me
•Completely understand why I trade
•Trade only when I am emotionally calm and centered
•Trade with total – clarity – awareness – and freedom
•Trade with a complete singularity of purpose
•Completely understand and accept the market for what it is
•Completely understand and accept a stock’s price for what it is
My Trading Perspective
•To be a consistently successful trader I must use a system that matches my perspective
From what perspective will I decide to trade today?
•Greed (Loves to win, looks for big winners, sometimes allows a winner to turn into a loser, prone to overtrading)
•Fear (Hates to lose, sometimes cuts winners short, prone to hesitation when pulling the trigger)
•Ambivalent – harbors neither fear or greed – identifies setups and trades them, exit’s as required
•Extrovert (prone to being impatient)
•Introvert (patient, sometimes too much)
•Centered – neither impatient, or overly patient
•Tendency to have weak opinions (prone to requiring too much confirmation before entering a trade, or of needing to know the unknown)
•Tendency to have strong opinions (prone to projecting wants, needs, will, and/ or desires onto the market)
•Opinion-less – it is what it is
•Ally (willing goes and/or agrees with the market – sometimes to the point of getting freight trained)
•Opponent (fights and/or disagrees with the market)
•Detached – simply reacts to what is observed every moment – remains in the present
My Profitability Goal
•Increase winners
•decrease losers
My Profitability Facts
•Good traders learn from losers
•Great traders learn from winners
•I will learn from both
•I absolutely know my next winner or loser does not matter one damn bit
My Growth Goal
•I must continuously grow my mental, physical, and emotional capacities in order to effortlessly flow with the market
•I must know, appreciate, and continuously grow – the successful trader I am.
The tools I will use to grow;
Journaling
•I will journal the following every trading day
oBasically every damn thing
oWinners – why they won – amount they won
oLosers – why they lost – amount they lost
oDays of week, times of day – of each trade
oTrades I did not take, their outcome, and why I did not take them
oMy emotions, thoughts, reactions throughout each trade
oThe amount of sleep I had the night before
oMy meals and meal times
oMy exercise
oMy greed / fear meter
oA printout of daily chart
I will periodically categorize my journal and review it to identify poor behavioral patterns. Identifying these patterns will force me to bring attention to my shortcomings. Bringing attention to my shortcomings will force me to focus on, and fix my shortcomings.
Journaling will also help me stay in tune with myself, help me identify my shortcomings sooner, and enable me to resolve / eliminate my shortcomings earlier in their lifecycle.
Exercise – physical
•I will perform the following physical exercises daily
oAerobic 30 min. (To help breathing, relaxing, and establish my internal rhythm)
oStrength 45 min (To help overall wellbeing – promote faster healing – support emotional strength)
oFlexibility 10 min – 2 / 3 times a day (To promote limber mind and body)
Exercise – mental
•I will perform the following mental exercises daily
oMeditation 5 min. (To quiet my thoughts and center my being prior to trading)
oVisualization 5 min (No negatives, I will only use positive messages, and pictures, to set a successful preconceived set of notions into my subconscious)
Trading Is a Different Profession
- He says in other professions, you learn theory and apply and it works most of the time ( carpeting , engineer ) , but it may not work 50% of the time in Trading ..
----------
success formula looks something like: Quality Input + Hard Work + Discipline + Some Originality = Success in trading -- or any other business
If you want anything to actually change or to move ahead in your life you actually have to do it yourself, you can´t sit there and wait for somebody or talk about what you might want, you know, you should actually keep dreams and desires inside and let them burn a little bit, and then they might come true'
View quotes by Russell Crowe
http://www.quotes.ubr.com/quotes-alphabetical/y-quotes/yourself-quotes.aspx
-----------
1. Trading Skill development: how you defint it
A systematic program of learning that emphasizes pattern recognition, an understanding of market movement across time frames, intermarket relationships, sound execution of trade ideas, and risk management.
Philosophy:The following lines summarize our philosophy about markets and trading.
2. We live in a word of probabilities, Successful market forecasting is simply trying to put those probabilities in our favor. Our disciplined approach of showing market short term strength/weakness can and will consistently lead to profitable trades.
3. Trading success is a function of possessing a statistical edge in the market and being able to exploit this edge with regularity. Trading failure is most likely to occur when you trade subjective, untested methods that possess no valid edge or when you are incapable of consistently applying edges that are available.
4. Keep technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.
5. Discipline, consistency and patience are the traits that will be rewarded when investing in markets.
----
Mr. K post ref.
Counter-Trade
If price should do something but does NOT do it, then it can lead to a more powerful trade in the OPPOSITE direction - which has implications for type of day structure and future opportunities. You can't forecast trade failures in advance, but when they occur, they can put you on the right side of the market while other inexperienced traders scramble to figure out what went wrong and stop-out in confusion." - Corey Rosenbloom
--------
How to Be Yourself
------------------
Trading advice given to a newbie when asked
1.) Look deep within yourself and determine if you have the tenacity to get kicked in the balls over and over – and then be able to stand up tall and repeat “Thank You Sir may I have another”
2.) Take any ego you have and shove it up your ass – it will not serve you in trading…, and while your at it shove your opinion up there also
3.) Confidence is not ego – learn the difference
4.) Start a journal and a trading plan – these will be about the only books you “need”
5.) Determine the type of trader you want to be (hint profitable is not a choice at this point) and stick to it
6.) Trading ain’t rocket science – price going up – buy it… price going down – short it – figure out how to determine what price is doing with the least amount of crap on your charts
7.) No one knows what the hell the market or a stock will do today, tomorrow, in 5 minutes – so don’t ask, and don’t act like you know
8.) The more you learn from books, gurus, shills – the more you’ll have to unlearn later (your decision on how hard you want to make it on yourself)
9.) The more time frames – of the same stock you’re trading – the better – to a point
10.) Preserve capital FIRST, make money SECOND – ALWAYS
11.) Trading is not about being right, it is “ONLY” about making money
12.) Learn to shut off the voices in your head – they are of no help
13.) Everything you read, or are told – is not yours until you work to make it so (now figure out what the hell I just said)
14.) Trading is a lot of work – don’t kid yourself – many broke people have
15.) I’m giving you advice now – during market hours I’ll take your money – and not say a word
16.) Trading profitably is not the destination, it is only a journey
17.) You WILL trade EXACTLY who you are inside – you have no choice in the matter
Now I’ve shared a starting point – as with all matters – the decision on what to do with it – is yours
Successful Journey to You should you decide to pursue it – but don’t pursue it lightly
RN
This is the best advice so far. It is obvious that it has been wtitten by a trader who has taken the 'journey'.
I would just add to this that it is indeed a journey that will test your limits. As you can see you have only ignited a powder keg of egotistic backbiting and silly bitching-which is 90% of the content of this forum.
1) My personal advice would be to get a night shift job, spend as much time in front of the markets as you can amd learn to trade using price action (find the good books and threads relating to this).
2) Price action is far more realistic and effective than trying to find miracle indicators.
3) Then paper trade until you have a profitibable system.
4) After this you will trade live on a small account and you will find that when it comes to real losses you will probably start losing when you expected to win. This is okay, it is the start of the real slog to control your emotions and this is the keystone: without it the whole building crumbles.
5) You are young and ambitiuos but you need patience, dedication and humility. Many young people have not got this-be warned. But it can be done. Good luck.
----------------
Trading system of me
asr: on this post RedneckTrader said he has 2 teenage sons..
Sir
IMHO - Very good question you’ve raised
My biggest obstacle was, and remains to this day – me
Below is an excerpt from a document I created to help me get the hell out of my own way
I’ve removed some items I don’t wish to share – otherwise I hope it doesn’t come across too egotistical – it’s not meant to be.
Take Care
Redneck
The System of Me
My Trading Truth
•I trade who I am
•My trading is a mirror into my soul
To remain consistent with my trading truth I will;
•Maintain spirituality (inner peace)
•Journal (To make me distinguish reality – from what I “think” reality is)
•Exercise
•Decide each day – who I am – who I will be – what I want to have happen
•Completely accept that my only enemy – is me
•Completely understand why I trade
•Trade only when I am emotionally calm and centered
•Trade with total – clarity – awareness – and freedom
•Trade with a complete singularity of purpose
•Completely understand and accept the market for what it is
•Completely understand and accept a stock’s price for what it is
My Trading Perspective
•To be a consistently successful trader I must use a system that matches my perspective
From what perspective will I decide to trade today?
•Greed (Loves to win, looks for big winners, sometimes allows a winner to turn into a loser, prone to overtrading)
•Fear (Hates to lose, sometimes cuts winners short, prone to hesitation when pulling the trigger)
•Ambivalent – harbors neither fear or greed – identifies setups and trades them, exit’s as required
•Extrovert (prone to being impatient)
•Introvert (patient, sometimes too much)
•Centered – neither impatient, or overly patient
•Tendency to have weak opinions (prone to requiring too much confirmation before entering a trade, or of needing to know the unknown)
•Tendency to have strong opinions (prone to projecting wants, needs, will, and/ or desires onto the market)
•Opinion-less – it is what it is
•Ally (willing goes and/or agrees with the market – sometimes to the point of getting freight trained)
•Opponent (fights and/or disagrees with the market)
•Detached – simply reacts to what is observed every moment – remains in the present
My Profitability Goal
•Increase winners
•decrease losers
My Profitability Facts
•Good traders learn from losers
•Great traders learn from winners
•I will learn from both
•I absolutely know my next winner or loser does not matter one damn bit
My Growth Goal
•I must continuously grow my mental, physical, and emotional capacities in order to effortlessly flow with the market
•I must know, appreciate, and continuously grow – the successful trader I am.
The tools I will use to grow;
Journaling
•I will journal the following every trading day
oBasically every damn thing
oWinners – why they won – amount they won
oLosers – why they lost – amount they lost
oDays of week, times of day – of each trade
oTrades I did not take, their outcome, and why I did not take them
oMy emotions, thoughts, reactions throughout each trade
oThe amount of sleep I had the night before
oMy meals and meal times
oMy exercise
oMy greed / fear meter
oA printout of daily chart
I will periodically categorize my journal and review it to identify poor behavioral patterns. Identifying these patterns will force me to bring attention to my shortcomings. Bringing attention to my shortcomings will force me to focus on, and fix my shortcomings.
Journaling will also help me stay in tune with myself, help me identify my shortcomings sooner, and enable me to resolve / eliminate my shortcomings earlier in their lifecycle.
Exercise – physical
•I will perform the following physical exercises daily
oAerobic 30 min. (To help breathing, relaxing, and establish my internal rhythm)
oStrength 45 min (To help overall wellbeing – promote faster healing – support emotional strength)
oFlexibility 10 min – 2 / 3 times a day (To promote limber mind and body)
Exercise – mental
•I will perform the following mental exercises daily
oMeditation 5 min. (To quiet my thoughts and center my being prior to trading)
oVisualization 5 min (No negatives, I will only use positive messages, and pictures, to set a successful preconceived set of notions into my subconscious)
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