- CL is best of both worlds. There is no other symbol like it... not even a distant second by comparison.
2/8/11: Quant Trading : see this blog post
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2/7/10: see NOdoji 2 year long self blog on all trades
2/5/10: I did install VSA ( volume spred analysis) code into amibroker it looks good , I had docs in google docs .. master it , it is better than simple TA
2/4/10: use our VSA, modified ATR, Stochastic , Vantage point range and QUant analysis and pre-documentation.
- Quant and 'Read Smart Money mind', option protected Position trading: this should be holy grail , once I outline
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1) China raised interest rates twice in 2010 and increased bank-reserve requirements on Jan. 14.
2) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/oil-trades-near-two-week-low-because-of-concern-over-chinese-rate-increase.html China’s economic expansion exceeded the 9.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and compared with a 9.6 percent annual gain in the previous three months, a statistics bureau report showed. The country’s central bank raised interest rates twice in 2010 and increased bank-reserve requirements on Jan. 14.
Crude oil fell the most in two weeks on concern China will raiseinterest rates to combat inflation, slowing economic growth and demand for energy.
Oil dropped 2.2 percent after China said inflation was 4.6 percent in December and that the economy of the world’s biggest energy-consuming country grew 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices also declined after the Energy Department said that U.S. crude supplies rose for the first time in seven weeks.
“Worries about what actions China will take to slow the economy are sending the market lower,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Any Chinese move could lower demand growth.”
Hitting the Brakes’
“China is going to be hitting the brakes,” said Richard Soultanian, co-president of NUS Consulting Group, a Park Ridge, New Jersey-based energy procurement adviser. “China’s voracious appetite for every commodity has been pushing prices higher. The country is now facing the inflation monster and will take additional steps to stem runaway growth.”
Crude-oil stockpiles increased 2.62 million barrels to 335.7 million, the Energy Department report showed. A 500,000- barrel decline was forecast, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
UPDATE 1-Oil trader takes control of 10 N.Sea oil cargoes ( see our blog for details of this)
notes: Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:58pm EST ( Oil did not drop and kept up above 91.50 for long time, may this Cargo ship news may be factor
UPDATE 3-Alaska oil pipe restarts, normal production
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN179772220110118
Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $99 a barrel on Friday, failing to reach $100 before the front-month contract expired, but helping lift U.S. oil prices despite China's latest move to tighten credit ( asr: china thing -ve for OIL )
The strength of U.S. equities and Brent helped U.S. crude end higher after seesawing and being pressured early by China's move to lift lenders' reserve rate requirements by 50 basis points in its ongoing effort to tame inflation.
Crude oil up 3.1%, gasoline rallies 3.4%
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil and gasoline futures jumped on Friday, as investors rushed to add energy products to their portfolios on worries they would miss price increases ahead of a worrying storm set to hit the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Crude for August delivery added $2.35 to settle at $78.86 a barrel. Gasoline for August delivery rose 7 cents to $2.15 a barrel, also helped by fears of the storm.
Feb. 5, 2010 Crude oil briefly slides below $70
in this video this guy says , oil is not increasing in propotionate to dollar , it is diverging , we may not know the reasons why but he said it can mean ONE of 2 things
1) DOllar by stop dropping soon
2) OIL is NOT in a rally season that is DEC,JAN,FEB are OIL stay LOW season
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from Jim letter on 1/4/2010
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Edit
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A reversal is in order because
1)We held the long term support as shown
2)$70 was not breached convincingly
3)A retracement for the $7 drop(from $77) is in order
4)Bullish candle stick pattern as shown
5) asr: on friday , Quantifiableedges and Mr. K said 'DECember option expiry week ' is postive 80% of the time . With this I should have got clues .
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=f01a3c326003b0306263e581ca2e9e9f&postid=2667669
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1/"Instead of living through a prolonged price crash, OPEC has managed to keep oil prices in the $70 to $80 range during the worst Western [U.S., Europe, Japan] recession in 75 years," said Byron King, editor of Energy & Scarcity Investor, published by Agora Financial LLC.
And at these prices, "the Saudis are bringing in enough oil revenue to fund their budget -- not too much, not too little," he said.
2/ In fact, prices have been trading between $80 and $70 for the past 7 weeks. That's probably about as stable as oil can get.
"Economic data remains tepid, inventories are high, OPEC production compliance is still relatively solid, and large spare capacity is in place," said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC.
"We seem to be close to a relative near-term equilibrium," he said.
Rocking the boat
On the other hand, when something's too good to be true, it usually is. It hasn't been an uneventful journey to get to this point and there are a lot of factors in the market that can still shake things up.
"OPEC believes that the price level is justified by improving demand but in reality, the price is what it is because of the effects of economic stimulus and the weak dollar," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PFGBest.
Now, the "biggest challenge for OPEC is not to produce oil faster than the recovery warrants or they could add to ... a global oil glut," he said.
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1/Early Tuesday, OPEC revised higher its forecast for world oil demand next year by 70,000 barrels a day, to 85.13 million barrels, citing demand from developing countries such as China and India.
2/ In foreign-exchange trading, the dollar made fresh gains, limiting the rise in oil. A stronger greenback tends to take away some of the appeal of hard assets such as oil and gold.
3/ "What you're seeing is short covering ahead of the numbers" on weekly inventories, said Scott Meyers, branch manager for the Pioneer Futures division of MF Global.
4/ Analysts polled by Platts Monday forecast crude-oil inventories fell by 2 million barrels in the week ended Friday.
( Jim ritter letter PM letter said same thing )
However, the cartel said the pace of recovery in developed countries, especially in the U.S., remained at risk and could dampen demand. The oil cartel will hold its next meeting in Angola on Dec. 22.
Despite Tuesday's action, "$70 will probably represent the ceiling rather than a floor," cautioned Tom Kloza, lead oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, in an interview from Houston.
( asr: track this guy and other this kind of analyst/trader comments , see if we can get historic comments from some site atleast CNBC historic )
OPEC members have been actually producing more than their publicly stated quotas, adding to global supply while the economic recovery in the U.S. is still tenuous.
( Pfgbest phil said it yesterday )
"Supply-demand forces are very much overweighted toward more supply," Kloza said.
Analysts predict the EIA and API will show an increase in gasoline inventories of 1.5 million barrels as demand remains low. But analysts foresee a drop of 750,000 barrels in U.S. distillate stocks
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The bullish tendencies over the last 25 years have been exceptionally strong. And as we now see above, not only do you have strong indications that this upcoming week carries an upside edge, but also out as far as 3 weeks.
Mr. K said
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, December options expiration week the S&P has been up 21 of the last 28 years with an average gain of +0.83% and historically has been the strongest week of December. Obviously, the key will be to break and hold above the trading range above S&P 1113. In my view, if we’re going to see a break out before year-end, it will be this week.
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Jim said
- down side pressure , If EIA bearish then to 66
- but next week they can push to 71-72 easily , I think so ...
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Dubious Dubai
12/14/2009
Dubai gets a bailout and the risk appetite tries to come back but oil is still being held back by a load of supply. Supply gluts put oil back into a rut on signs that OPEC is cheating more each day. OPEC compliance to production targets fell to just 58% which is the worst score for the cartel since the financial crisis began. The biggest cheaters were Iran and Angola but also, believe it or not, Nigeria's production has come back much faster than expected after the country was plagued with rebel attacks on its infrastructure.
The reasons for the cheating on production quotas within OPEC are varied. There is the greed angle but part of it is there are those who actually want to purchase the oil. Oh sure it is easy to comply with your production targets when there are no buyers for your oil but not so much when you can actually find some buyers.
Speaking of buyers, there were plenty of them for the auction on Iraq’s oil fields. The problem is that US companies were not among them. The big winners for Iraq’s oil fields went to Russia’s Lukoil and Gazprom, Europe’s Royal Dutch Shell, China’s CNPC and Malaysia’s Petronas. According to the Financial Times these companies have promised to raise Iraq’s oil production by a whopping 8.5 million barrels per day which is more than Saudi Arabia produces today.
Oil is still probing for a low near $65 longer term but may have trouble short term hitting that target. Today it looks like a range kind of a day so baring any breaking news, you would be selling if the market if it makes new highs on the day and buying on new lows for day trades. For a position trade we prefer the short side. I think a position in the 74-75 range that would be great and 68 will be tough stuff on the downside.
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