CL sources

Study this map:

we have so many factors to do supply disruptions which will increaes CL prices.

we have only one factor that keep CL prices low that is Global recession continues for many years.

think about one vs. many the odds. If there is any recovery , the human behaviour factor plays all the said disruption cards to keep prices around 90- 100 level.

China's oil demand increase 'astonishing', says IEA

Oil is trading at more than $82 a barrel http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8563985.stm this news is 12 March 2010: China's demand for oil jumped by an "astonishing" 28% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. Oil prices were above $83 a barrel earlier today, the highest in two months, but dropped back to closer to $80 in late afternoon trading. The IEA said the high price level was due to "heightening of geopolitical tensions affecting some producing countries", but that this had been balanced by "ample physical oil supplies". Crude oil production by countries in the oil producers' cartel Opec rose to a 14-month high of 29.2 million barrels a day in February. --------

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sources that will help to make informed decisions on CL price moves

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http://www.tradercurrencies.com/currency-trading/83150/crude-oil-the-different-benchmarks-for-traders-and-investors/

NYMEX Futures

The NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) futures price for crude oil, which is another major benchmark, represents on a per barrel basis the market value of a futures contract to either buy or sell 1,000 barrels of WTI or some other light, sweet crude oil at a specified time.

Although most NYMEX crude oil contracts are never executed for physical delivery, the NYMEX market supplies important price information to US buyers and sellers of crude oil in the US and around the world, making WTI the benchmark for many different crude oils, especially in the Americas.

Typically, the NYMEX futures prices tracks very closely the WTI spot price as above, although since the NYMEX futures contract for a given month expires 3 days before WTI spot trading for the same month ceases, there can be a period in which the difference between the NYMEX futures price and the WTI spot price widens noticeably.

OPEC Basket Price

For more detailed crude oil pricing, OPEC collects pricing data on a basket of seven crude oils, including: Algeria’s Saharan Blend, Indonesia’s Minas, Nigeria’s Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia’s Arab Light, Dubai’s Fateh, Venezuela’s Tia Juana Light, and Mexico’s Isthmus (a non-OPEC crude oil).

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0) with put/call range bound strategy: for NOV/2010 contract at the beiging of month 9/15/2010 ... the 75 put and call are same around 2.50 each so for $5 you get both ( 5k) put and call and we have 15 days to trade based on these ... it worked well when I tracked for 2 weeks till 9/25/ price in the range from 74 to 77 ..

1.1) asr: we can use this CL for Daily news if RItter bush is not available ..

found this guys analysis giving good glance on market ( mostly daily/weekly view).

http://fxmarketanalysis.wordpress.com/

All his articles are archived last 1 year, you just need to change page number in the url /page/xx/

http://fxmarketanalysis.wordpress.c...gorized/page/2/

and also about.com our commodity guy ...

1) good source to search reliable bloomberg source ( this is for current , 2) is for archieved )

http://www.google.com/advanced_search?q=crude+oil+site:bloomberg.com&num=50&hl=en&lr=&tbs=qdr:m&prmd=n

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=crude+oil&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&num=50&lr=&as_filetype=&ft=i&as_sitesearch=bloomberg.com&as_qdr=m&as_rights=&as_occt=any&cr=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&safe=images

( use, dygraphs to show prices from our 'prmium data' continuos data for CL as one price rolledup price for all contracts ...)

2) to search archieves , this gives all news source for any period, we can also filter just to use only Bloomberg.com etc.. http://news.google.com/archivesearch/advanced_search?as_user_ldate=2007/01/01&as_user_hdate=2008/01/01&num=50&as_price=p0&hl=en&q=%22crude+oil%22&scoring=a

- use also BBC as news source for google archieve , you get good articles ..

http://news.google.com/archivesearch?as_user_ldate=2007/01/01&as_user_hdate=2008/01/01&q=%22crude+oil%22&num=50&as_price=p0&scoring=a&hl=en&q=%22crude+oil%22&lnav=od&btnG=Go

asr: see this 1997 news , yelstin health caused the price change

http://news.google.com/archivesearch?as_q=&num=50&hl=en&btnG=Search+Archives&as_epq=crude+oil&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_user_ldate=01/01/1997&as_user_hdate=01/01/1998&lr=&as_src=&as_price=p0&as_scoring=a

2.2) we can develop for each month say OCTOBER , the what were the news for last 5 year and display by nice FORMAT (left tab , then right hand source .. ) to see how this current year OCTOBER prices can effect based on historic events . Like how in the past STROMS on golf coust effected prices ( esp. spreads with respect to front month and when the spread came back to normal after how many days )

3) Hurricanes

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006atlan.shtml ( see all the 10+ years archieves )

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072006_Gordon.pdf

- this has detailed mpas of 9/10 to 9/24 wind speeds, graph OIL prices in those days how they moved and the spreads ( front to back month ) .

- do same for all year stroms and see the CL price patterns ... how they changed ....

- also from the history of many years , plot which months have many stroams and how the price moved .. ( buying calls as soon as you stroms starts at lower level ). When in HYD in AUG/2010 I had a CL short , and a Strom took it to +2 $ .... ( got news later ...)

http://www.gulfcoasthurricanes.com/category/gulf-coast-weather/

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/mwreviews.html 100 years

4) weather derives

In this 3 part series, J. Scott Mathews President Weatherex LLC., explores the practice of hedging hurricane sensitive stock exposure using CME CHI products.

In part 1, he demonstrates the effects hurricanes can have on the market value of equity shares, using specific storm data from 2002 through 2008, and the related price movement of selected stocks.

In part 2, he explores the hurricane season of 2008 and compares the financial impacts of Hurricane Ike against share prices and shows how the CHI contract values could have been used to hedge the risk held by shareholders.

In the final installment he addresses the importance of hurricane forecasts in the media and the role that the insurance industry plays in the "hurricane business", tying it all together through the use of CHI options.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/weather/hedging-hurricane-sensitive-stock-exposure.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/weather/files/WT138_Mathews_Hurricane_1.pdf

5) we already got CL news summary for a a web site get it

6) dygraphs support forum on google code:

http://groups.google.com/group/dygraphs-users/browse_thread/thread/4d2b7a6eeda198dc?pli=1

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