Trading Wisdom from my own

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http://21cvision.blogspot.com/2010/05/4-elements-for-trading-success.html

-- asr: look at the 6 rules on this post , Kirk is like this guy , very practical knowledge which can apply to CL and me .

http://traderhabits.com/2011/05/trader-or-gambler-take-test/

asr: following was added on 10/12/2011 :

a0/ see this mathemataica 3D model displayed for languages on this link http://reference.wolfram.com/mathematica/ref/Histogram3D.html

- we need to display this kind of 3D chart of OIL contract for NOVEMER month for last 5/10 years , just of NOV month

a1/ We need to develop a 'RANK ' system for CL trade ( see some ideas of 'Rabbit Q Rank' below )

- we can have our CL factors such as these for the RANK

- identify next day H1/H2/H3 L1/L2/L3 ( based on previous day 'price AT Volume' )

- EMA85/EMA15: 85% bars are above EMA(50) line -- BULLISH day , only 15 % or less bars are above EMA(50) line -- BEARISH day

- price by VOlume - price buckets : bucket 1: 30% traded at 85.50 , bucket 2: 20% traded at 84.0 etc..

- EURO , S&P , GOLD relative values based RANK ...

- Vantage Point Phigh/PLow based Rank

- Stochastic, MACD , ATR stop based Rank

- VSA Volume Spread Analysis based Rank

and finally we need Rank at different prices for tomorrow. Assume we are at 8pm ET at the evening at the end of the day .

- we need to project RANK for CL for tomorrow at different price levels. Say CL closed today at 85.20 , we can have tommrow CL rank like this

88 - Rank 20 -- assume this is 10.30 am EST ( after 1 hour trading) , based on S&P , EURO , GOLD % gains on top of yesterday CL can have this values at 10;30 AM .

83 - Rank 80

85 - Rank 70

Tools: It seems we can use Scipy /. R instead of Mathamatica as Scipy is free ( with web iterfaces) http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1944261/when-to-choose-r-vs-scipy

use both for this purpose and though i am far from systematic in selecting one for a given task, here's my list:

R seems simple here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(programming_language) , seems to have GUI also ...

a2/ write (and record video like Kirk ) narrative so far what you have seen on Price Action that way you DEVELOP your thought process and you can perfect your CL price prediction thought process.

a3 / use the araticles in this search PAGE basaed on ATR :

http://21cvision.blogspot.com/search?q=ATR

b/ see Kirkreport Videos, I need to do same videos for CL/OIL for a month stating postives/negatives for the week ( as he listed in the transript of weekly video )

c/ Have weekly Support /Resistance range to guide daily trades

d/ using ATR ( see Amibroker ) stops , and using Amibroker 'Optimizer' to find correct values ( not only for ATR even other tests ). here Amibroker is great use those features

e/ use our 'price buckets' ( example: 20% volume traded at 84.50 yesterday ) concept, this gives good values to trade today ( price Volume indicator )

f/ use VP phigh/plow of the day

g/ use seasonal patterns and historical last 15 years moores charts

master what you all ready have and know:

1/ having VP PHigh/PLow at hand every day and use it

2/ have historical intra day 5 min data , ready to analyze with Amibroker and SQL query on web ( last week down > 5% , monday open Buy/close sell result )

3/ have VSA/VPA on Amibroker ( master: effort to rise, test for supply , psedo thrust etc..) and see those days in the past as shown in 2/ what VSA signals you got that day

4/ Expectancy and R : master and apply (see blog post here) , enter trades only with 3R return for 1 Risk

5/ CL Technical Setups:

- draw Trend Lines and have comments , Trend lines on Volume also ...

- write ( record video like Kirk ) narrative so far what you have seen on Price Action

-- which level supported , what broken, compared to prev day buckets where is H1/L1 , H2/L2 etc.. any of them reached

-- any reversal from .95/.45 or next .15/ .65

- EMA9/EMA50 at 95% and 80% ( same for up and down days)

- price Buckets/ H1/L1 : price buckets based on volume traded previous day , say 102.50 traded 30% volume traded at 102.50 , 20% at 103.0 etc... Based on these price buckets, project H1/H2/H3 , L1/L2/L3 for next day

- support broken/Retrace back : SHORT entry: 100.0 broken to 99.85 , retraced to 100.50 this is SHORT

- Resistance broken/retrace back: LONG entry: on 5/10/11 103.45 broken to 103.65 , then retraced to 102.30 level .. get in for LONG

- Bull FLAG channel : happens very often in CL , some days low point can be 'prev Bar' base , then RISE ..

- Bear flag channel: in CL usually no Bare Flag Channels , coz it drops so fast.

- Fib Retracements: 25% retracement always happen , 33% most of the time ... ( BUY opposite side call/put to position your self for the FIB as I did on 5/10/11 )

6/ CL Psychological/Sentiment Setups:

- condition: condition 2 days dropping last 15 min. $2 in CL , next day POP $2 in last 15 min.

- using Europe session: to condition opposite side of what is coming next morning session in CL .. so that you can TRAP easily for your (Hedgies)SIDE

- monday/tuesday Down in April ( geo-political ) , Thu/Friday UP

good Technical Basics

Stocks Charts: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

MACD:

VWAP

Percentage Volume Oscillator

STochastic bullish/bearish Divergences

Relative PRice - for us CL relative price with EURO, S&P, GOLD is important

Rabbitt Q-RanK

-asr: we should have our own Q rank for CL based on EUR , S&P , GOLD - Video here

example Here , also we can develop this kind of RANK easily with Amibroker

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http://traderteaze.blogspot.com/2011/05/start-of-pursuit-of-my-passion-trading.html

[[ This describes who I am ]]

In Dr. Steenbarger’s book Enhancing Trader Performance he called it “trader’s niche”, which captures your imagination, creativity, skill, talent and interest.

When operating within my niche, discipline becomes natural. I need “discipline” to do my math homework or to figure out Matlab codes. Yet, I could easily spend 8 hours straight trying to figure out my trade pattern, reviewing my trading video, writing my trade journal, playing around my performance metrics, or thinking of what the F* happened that I lost on a trade but was right on the direction?

“Discipline” is unnecessary since trading is fun for me. I get “high” playing around trade ideas and performance research just as much as executing and managing trades.

So if your job or career doesn’t give you the “performance high” and you need tremendous “discipline” to do the “right” thing, you might be in the wrong field.

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