CL Notes 4

todo:

-------

0) Position sizing: the problem is NOT under funding ,even with 100k I made this mistake .. so even with 8k I can only take 1 contract , Never 2 ... I NEED to FOLLOW this .. per day 2 $400 trades are good enough that gives $2k /week and 8k /month ..

1) need to have 1 min real time chart along with 5 min, and daily deep reading drewing weekly support etc.. see DOJI chart .. I need to draw those kind of lines

2) have a Buy/sell signals chart based on VSA ( Amibroker ) and other indicatores . BCE has simple one see his charts .. this buy/sells give visuval clue .. you can see yesterday chart at 11:15 am and see what kind of signals you had and compare it to today ...

3) see my 5/5/11 Support breach and Retrace .. oopertunities in below notes .. I need to write them in REAL time .. and take postionns in SIM account based on breach ..

Bsty seem good trader from singapore for EURO, try to contact him ..

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=219834

http://www.amibroker.com/kb/2006/03/19/how-does-the-daily-time-compression-work/

http://www.purebytes.com/archives/amibroker/2008/msg05837.html

-- see Bartimes that is related to clipping intraday data ..

http://www.amibroker.com/guide/afl/afl_index.php?m=1

-------------------------------

5/20/11:

what happened:

Euro zone Grece crisis EURO is weak overnite and morning session , that took euro down 140 pips and SP 10 points , that took CL down to 96 ( JUL) 95.5 JUN .

- so I waited for SBR to 97.20 on JUL and shorted thinking it will retest 96 again ... , no STOP closed at 99.80 total QM net - $1.3

- should have losed at 99.50 , and had another short chance , but thought I may screw up this ...

- did good small 2 shorts on ET fourm today 60 ticks each ...

- But this is last day of JUNE contract , so that factor played it never looked back at rised all the way to 99

- I did not have stop on QM , given yesterday 50 tick stop was wasted ...

- lesson: on Contract END days , usual support Broken REtrace SHORT did not work ... given 'oil producers ' do not want to sell OIL at 96 which is delivered one month from now .

- gaddafi flee chance news came , but still market did not budge ...

today Pattern:

- morning Down with EURO and SP

- then Retrace , but no retest of LOWS , all the way UP ( contract expiry effect )

- normal TA did not work ( NO retest of Lows after Retrace ... ) , on special days exception to TA ...

- price histogram did NOT work .. we have huge voume at 98.50 level , but it never touched ...

Learned:

- I need to have how prev. 3 yeras JUN contract ended in relation to previous month MAY

- see 5 min. charts on last 2 months days , how the price action play is done ..

- have a 5 day moving avg. of price price to 5 days before contract Expiry ( last 3 months ) and see How many time it closed Below/above that 5 day avg. price to get a sense

- do above same just for MAY month last 10 years ...

- while getting data , Qcollector have symbols in a file like CL M 2010 , CL M 2009 , CL M 2008 etc.. and feed that file to get individual contract 'intraday data' and daily DATA . Then have either AMibroker or PHP to show above Avarages we are talknig about ..

todo:

-------

- have weekly calender printed ahead with

- CL contract expiry, option expiry ,

EIA stocks date,

Fed FMOC ..

- watch GLD, Silver external effects ...

- post a question on traderJI forum for on 5 min chart , is there a way to goto given date by entering Param ( to see last month contract expiry date )

- Have all contract expiry dates

how: load each symbol programatically with AmiBroker and get last Day and write to a file that LAST DATE ..

- followup with the bigMiketrader forum guy to share Data costs and effort to test ( he does TL trusuary and Forex )

-------------------------------

5/19/11:

5/19/11

5/19/11:

- entered Long at 99.20 after that first steep down bar , with out looking at chart , just looking at price drop on Iphone , Big mistake. AFter such a big down bar on High vol. it rerely stops.

- stop 98.84 was taken out in the same 5 min bar only to reverese to 99.35 when I looked ( lesson: buy call option would have saved that stop )

- single bar reversal give reatrace quickly ...

- This is typical SBR Support ( 99) Broken and Retrace ( to 99.70 ), our clasical setup for Reversal short ...

- then back to sell of to Lower High LH on Bear channel and reversal to Hihger High HH of Bear chanel ( marked on chart )

- need to program these in amibroker

did what

---

- took long at 99.20 after that big drop bar with out looking at charts with stop 98.84 causing -400

- did not study volume and bear channel and did some aribitary trade causing another -400

learned:

---------

- no trade with out detailed study of charts

- what an irony, on 5/18 , hesitated to take short at 100.95 with .5 stop , but today did a trade with out chart with 40 tick stop .. ( same way 5/17 did not take 95.5 Long with 5 tick stop given 95.0 is great R line ... ). I need to evaluate RISK , and TAke LOW risk any time, not BIG risk with out looking chart ..

- after that big REd bar with high volume expect , there will be much RED to come ( so came 3 more RED bars 5/19 )

- Need to program this SBR , RBR in Amiborker on 5 min. chart and test every EIA Wednesday data RBR, and SBR on big drop days and have a trading system with parameters ..

- understand channel Bull or Bear channel which one is running and look at volume on huge 5 min bar DROP or RISE .. These big vol. show clues for start of BULL or BEAR channels

- understnad SBR Support Broken and Retrace , new SHORT point ( as 5/19 98.60 to 99.70 retrace )

- understand RBR Resitance Broken and retrace , New LONG entry ( as 5/18/11 after EIA bullish report )

- see Bsty nice Lines of Pivot point on chart , we need to have similar on Amibroker ( supported by IB data )

- Bsty seem good trader from singapore for EURO, try to contact him ..

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=219834

--------------------------------------------

5/18/11

5/18/11:

---------------

Clues for Morning Strength which I did not notice:

1. Crude draw down small when analsyst expected 1.7 M BUILD

2. Huge Volume spike at 10.30 EST and rise to 99.80 , next 99.10 should have been BUY ( resistance broken then Retrace )

3. Silver UP 4.5% , GOLD up 1.5% , and FMOC meeting expected , so these are sure signs for QE

4. EURO not up bigway but holding at 50 pip UP

5. SP showing 6 points gain

---

1. CL bar 100.99 shy of peeny [Clues for CL TOP]

2. gasoline double top

3. gasoline RBOB up only 1.6% at peak , where as CL up 3.5%

did What:

1. Early hours went short at 98 and closed at 99 before EIA report

2. after EIA report shorted at 99.25 ( after 99.80 retrace to here) then closed at 100.25

3. net - $2

-------------------------------------------

This is 5/5/11 chart fromDOJI see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=178741&perpage=40&pagenumber=535

5/16/11:

------------

<< some Post Action analysis:

yesterday The reopening brought relief to the eight large refineries , so Leading Gasoline drag caused the drag in CL .

- RBOB closed lowest of last 2 months ...
- The friday 5/13 last hour spike in CL was due to this weekend fear of these Levees break down, once they opened on Saturday .. CL started down after Sunday .. and reversed to high on MOnday morning on ERUO stength ( 100 pips ) then draged to lower by monday close by following RBOB Drag
>>

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June
delivery CLc1 settled at $97.37 a barrel, losing $2.28, or
2.29 percent, after trading from $96.90 to $99.65. It was the
lowest settlement since May 6, when the contract ended at
$97.18.

* NYMEX RBOB gasoline for June delivery RBM1 settled at
$2.9311 a gallon, down 14.33 cents, or 4.66 percent, after
trading between $2.9223 to $3.0810. It was the lowest since
prices closed at $2.8437 on March 16.

NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures
settled more than 2 percent lower on Monday, pressured as
gasoline futures fell below $3 a gallon for the first time
since mid-March.

A gasoline sell-off ignited as the key Morganza Spillway
was opened on Saturday to relieve flooding along the swollen
Mississippi River.

5/6/11:

- last day close 99.40

- overnight session opened 99 and UP to 100.95

- I did a long QM 3 pm at 99.30 ( hopping for 100.30 )

- then last night dropped all the way to 94.86 and back to 98.50 with in 1 hour ( seems london manipulators )

- got scared and closed above long at 98 ( for loss )

- morning on good Employment report jumped 98.50 to 100.30

- old LImit sell order 100.30 left triggered ( un planned ) and quickly saw at 98.40 , closed this QM for $1 for QM gain ..

- missed few Longs form 98.40 to 99.40

- on job report strenfth it poped to 102.30 , did a short at 102.25 to 101.70 ...

- spent long chnnel from 101.30 to 101.80 ..

- then dropped to 99 and spent channel 99.30 to 99.85

- at 11.00 did a run from 99.30 to 100.05

- at 11.15 it was at 99.30 , i thought it will close 100.25 ish ( influenced by Goldman news report saying previous day $10 may stop down side slide for now , and forgot about sell off last 15 min Thursday)

- but those last 15 min . it took free fall to 97.25 ..

- did a long from 97.30 to 97.60 ( NET total 1290 )

5/5/11:

----------

- previous day close 109.50 ish

- early morning dropped to 105.10

- at 105 , Eon KID said for CL this is not new did in FEB 11 and MAY 2010 same way

- GOldman sachs gave sell call 2 weeks ago

- Forbes article on Mayday Mayday 2010 ..... Sell of similar conidtioins to 2011

I had Long 105.0 with Stop: 104.74 when LOD was 104.81 when STOP triggered it filled at 104.58
- that is 104.74 STOP was filled at 104.58 that was start of that low to 101.08
- boy that STOP saved my day ( when I checked at Hill by calling IB )

- made some money with Longs ( total up to 9K )

- from 11.15 , next 15 min .. it was at 101.35 I thouht it will go up , took LONG 2 lots with NO STOP ..

- then it dropped to 99.50 back to 100 , I closed at 100 ( thank I did ) , it dropped to 98.40 later ..

- $10 drop day ...

- finallly at 6200

CL Support breach then Retrace provided Clear short entry points Here are the few classic points of support break , retrace points and good short entries CLUES today. first one ----------- - first drop and holding 105.11 line , retrace to 106 - breached 105.0 line ( support for more than 2 weeks ) to 104.81 then retraced to 105.50 - this 105.50 showed good short given 105.0 , 2 week support was broken earlier second one --------------- - breached 100.0 to 99.80 ish and retraced to around 100.50 - breaching 100 line is HUGE HUGE thing for CL , so 100.50 provided another great Short entry ... ADD: I am not claiming I took advange every one of these SHORTS, posting here for Academic study and future reference (for myself atleast )

5/4/11 Tuesday

--------

EIA day dropped from 113.50 to 109.50 ... after 3.1 mill built up

- silver sell of started here ... could not anticipate that could effect OIL ...

5/3/11 monday:

- On UBL news in London session dropped from 113 to 110 then back to 112.50

- morning session 112.50 then pushed uptoo 114.85 then closed day at 113.50 ish ..