Reference Analysis RA

we know TA , fundamental analysis and sentiment are 3 major pieces of any market analysis. Here I would like to add Reference Analysis RA , this is not a brand new analysis. We are all doing it as part of above 3 types but not conscious about it. The idea of this post it to bring it to front from subconscious and give it an equal weight as other 3 making it perfect 4 piece analysis.
Basically RA can be seasonal or historical pattern that occured in the past ( one time like 2009 compare to 2003) or a ATR/stoc past patterns.

Here is the RA in nut-shell with example
EX 1) say we have a good article on AAPL selling PUT DECEMBER calls with all TA etc. now here is how we need to add RA to this piece.
- reserach and back test and plot the how AAPL behaved from 11/10/xx to 12/20/xx for 5 years and plot 5 yr avg, last 2 years on a plot
- it gives the probability in your favor

EX 2)Mr. K identified good FA filter and good ATR/stoc setup. Testing it past patterns how it behaved in the past ( how it bounced back or not how long it took etc.)

EX 3) identifying 2009 is like 2003 recovery , this is also kind of reference analysis. this validate reference of past and gives confidence how the stock may behave in 2009 as year progress.
- this is great to have this ref. which can lead to big profits in 2009 market progress knowing market hold 50 DMA as S1 and 200 DMA as S2