Monday, November 30, 2009

Trading & Wisdom Quotes


Steve Palmquist

There is no magic to trading. It is about putting the odds on your side and not trading unless they are. This sounds simple, but it takes a few years to get good at it.

And like most things, while you are learning it is best to work with someone. The learning time is long because traders have to see how things behave in different markets, and learn to trade the odds and not their feelings. The market will not adapt to us, we must adapt to it.

Successful trading is not about predicting what the market is going to do. It is about knowing how to react to whatever it does.

Trading is a statistical business where it is important to manage risk. Every trading system has a certain percentage of winners and losers.



Create A Vision For Your Life
"Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long." - Raschke's Trading Rules

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"Move out of your comfort zone. You can only grow if you are willing to feel awkward & uncomfortable trying something new." - Brian Tracy

Success seems to be connected with action.Successful people keep moving.They make mistakes, but they don't quit. - Conrad Hilton

You want to be greedy when others are fearful,and you want to be fearful when others are greedy. - Buffet

- asr: with OIL OVER sold , this applies , at 73 on friday 11/27 with Dubai world bank problems


Good Trading Quotes from “Techniques of Tape Reading”

This (Trading) is not a job where you get paid by the hour.You get paid for doing the right thing.

Forget that your money is at stake. Money in trading account is just a tool for making money. Preserve your tool. You need it to make money.

Don’t let the outcome of one trade alter your trading discipline. One trade doesn’t make a system…

Trading is a game of probabilities. You don’t have to be right every time. You just have to follow your rules.

You decide your fate; the market doesn’t.

Pure followers of stock pickers will never be around… Learn or you are bankrupt.

Be aggressive in trending market and conservative in choppy market.

Take home runs when you can, but don’t beat yourself up about missing a few.
One trade should never make or break your account.

Vadym Graifer & Christopher Schumacher, Techniques of Tape Reading

Great minds discuss Ideas,
Average minds discuss Events,
Small minds discuss People.

Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade.
By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade.
Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical.


Successful traders know that discipline is what allows them to enter their trades when the odds are in their favor and, more importantly, to get out when they’re wrong.
Being right is not the problem. What you do when you’re wrong is the crucial issue.

There are a lot of traders who buy then pray while the market goes against them, because they think that it will eventually go their way.
Most traders average down and wait for the market to turn their way.
Trading my way, I always have defined amount of money that I am willing to lose.
I let the market decide how much money I’m going to make.
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http://www.chicagosean.com/2010/10/in-trading-time-does-not-always-equal.html

When I managed a small hedge fund from 2002-2004, my trading style was trend following futures and commodities. I scanned the markets after the close seeking triggers to enter trades. When a trade was triggered, I entered a market order to execute at the open the next day. Upon getting my fill at the open, I would immediately place my stop order for the trade. And then forgot about it. I didn't sit at my screen watching the market all day. There was no need. During this period of 18-months, my fund returned 58% to my investors AFTER my 20% performance fees and 2% of assets.

asr: yes , I wanted to do this with OIL , place good trades then place STOPs and leave it for EOD ..

Most recently, I've had my best success when I've taken steps back from the market and formed a "big picture" idea of what I thought the market would do over the next few weeks or months. I then figured how I can best profit from my idea if I'm right, and how I can best limit the damage if I'm wrong or my timing is off. The plan I've currently put together involves me executing one, maybe two trades per week. And, predictably, I've had a good run.

Trading doesn't have to be fast. It doesn't have to be hard. It doesn't have to be complicated. Some of the most successful traders in the world could probably write out their entire trading plan on the back of a business card.

Lastly, I'd like to end with another great quote from Howard in this interview:
If success means survival and doing something I love, then I guess I'm a success
Yes indeed, Howard.

eapps

Pear and Pecl Support

Applicable Plans: All Standard VPS, all Advanced VPS, all Premier VPS, Plesk Gold VPS, Plesk Platinum VPS Plans

PHP is a widely-used general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited for Web development and can be embedded into HTML.

Requirements

PHP must be installed in your VPS subscription. This can be done by selecting it when you order the eApps VPS hosting service or by installing it using the Control Panel after the service has been provisioned. To see if PHP is already installed login to your Control Panel and click on the All Applications icon. If it is not in the installed list, you may install it by clicking on the Add Application icon from the System tab and selecting PHP then clicking Next.

General Information

Your eApps PHP has all of the features to allow you to develop a site using the latest standards and modules. Below is a list of all the features installed by default.
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Your PHP by default has both pear and pecl enabled so you can install any modules directly from the php.net site. To use pear or pecl you will need to login to SSH as root. Please read the SSH user guide for more details -http://support.eapps.com/hsp/ssh.

Execute the below commands for installing modules.

pear install module_name

Or

pecl install module_name


Once your module is installed it needs to be loaded in PHP in order to be available for use. To load it you will need to create a file in /etc/php.d/ called module_name.ini that should contain:

extension = module_name.so

It is preferrable to use a new file for each extension you want to load. This allows for easier management of extensions php is using. Certain modules have their own list of variables that can be defined. You should also define them in the extension file instead of directly using php.ini. The file php.ini should be used only to define php default values, and not to load extensions. Please refer to the section below, called 'Editing the php.ini file' for more details about php.ini file.

After the file was added, you will need to restart Apache web server. You can either restart it from the control panel -> system tab -> apache web server -> restart or by SSH. Please note that you need to be the root user to be able to restart Apache with this command:

service httpd restart

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Why use an eApps Virtual Private Server for your PHP hosting needs?
We understand that the reason you are looking for a VPS hosting service is because you are frustrated by the limitations of shared hosting and standard issue VPS services with an inferior PHP environment. With your needs in mind, we are offering PHP for power users. Our PHP is the latest version available from the php.net site, and it comes with rich features, including the following:

* pear and pecl pre-installed, ready for use
----------------------------------

Reading and Writing Spreadsheets with PHP

Breaking The Language Barrier

downloaded from this link and unzipped , it works, no install of pkg. reqd.
a) just rename oleread.inc to oleread.php
b) require_once 'Excel/oleread.php'; -- change in reader.php file
c) given jvx* xls file is bad, so use your own .xsl
d) with all 3 above it works. ..

http://sourceforge.net/projects/phpexcelreader/files/

When it comes to playing nice with data in different formats, PHP's pedigree is hard to beat. Not only does the language make it a breeze to deal with SQL resultsets and XML files, but it comes with extensions to deal with formats as diverse as Ogg/Vorbis audio files, ZIP archives and EXIF headers. So it should come as no surprise that PHP can also read and write Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, albeit with a little help from PEAR.

In this article, I'll introduce you to two packages that make it surprisingly easy to hook your PHP scripts up to a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and extract the data contained therein. I'll also show you how to dynamically create a new spreadsheet from scratch, complete with formulae and formatting, and import data from a spreadsheet into a database. So come on it, and let's get started!

I should mention at this point certain changes you might need to make to your development environment in order to get the PHP-ExcelReader package working. As noted above, this package is currently not maintained and so, simply include()-ing the main class file, 'reader.php', in your script, as suggested in the package documentation, is insufficient and generates a 'missing file' error.

To get things working, extract the file 'oleread.inc' from the distribution archive and save it to a location in your PHP include path using the directory structure 'Spreadsheet/Excel/Reader/OLERead.php'.
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Here's an example how to read these files

http://forums.codewalkers.com/pear-packages-47/spreadsheet-excel-reader-852965.html

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Natural gas hedge fund


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Mr. Arnold has been one of the most successful energy traders: Following the collapse of Enron in 2001, he took his $8 million bonus and started Centaurus, which now manages more than $5 billion in assets.

In 2006 — the same year that wrong-way energy trades triggered the collapse of Amaranth Advisors — Mr. Arnold took home an estimated $1.5 billion to $2 billion in pay, according to estimates from Trader Monthly magazine.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Arnold
We didn't mean for this to happen. We weren't expecting to see a pretty face when we sauntered over to the Times slideshow of Alpha's top-earning hedge-funders this year, just a bunch of math geeks who spend their days sitting around crunching numbers. We weren't looking for a relationship.

But then our eyes came to rest on John Arnold, 33-year-old energy manager of Texas hedge fund Centaurus, with his blue eyes and actual Cary Grant chin cleft, and we fell in love a little. Granted, Arnold looks especially good in this context, alongside a bunch of guys who, should they choose to retire and pursue their dream of acting, could probably be cast in a Cialis commercial like tomorrow. (Not you, John Paulson.
You are still our man, even though your decision to not participate in the public-private ownership program disappoints us. Also, you are probably too short.) And it's true that the $1.5 billion Arnold made last year and the fact that he ranks 300 on the Forbes list of richest Americans lends him a certain je ne sais quoi. Plus there are some things about Arnold that set off warning bells, like that he started out at Enron. But what can we say? We've always loved the bad boys.

Read more: Well Hello, John D. Arnold of Centaurus Energy -- Daily Intel http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/03/well_hello_john_arnold.html#ixzz0YGxoV2Op

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Who Won Amaranth’s Losses?
Trading 101 | October 8th, 2006

An article forwarded in to me:

Arnold’s hedge fund thrives as Amaranth falls
Centaurus gains approach 200% in ‘06, but manager has an enemy in Houston
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Oct 5, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. When Amaranth Advisors LLC was losing $6 billion at the hands of its top natural gas trader Brian Hunter last month, rival energy hedge fund manager John Arnold was busy making millions.


Arnold, head of $3 billion Houston-based Centaurus Energy, has generated gains approaching 200% so far this year, according to a person familiar with the former Enron trader and his fund. While Arnold, 32, didn’t purposely trade against Amaranth, he likely benefited when the firm was struggling to exit its losing positions, traders said. Arnold’s fund, which he started in 2002 in the wake of Enron’s collapse, has now become the largest hedge fund specializing in energy trading. Centaurus is one of the first places traders go when they’re seeking a market for natural gas positions. “They’ve set their tentacles into all of the liquidity pockets of the natural gas market,” Art Gelber, president of Houston-based energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates, said. “It’s certainly possible they made money from Amaranth’s troubles - they’re a really big player in the market and are knowledgeable enough to understand why Amaranth’s positions might have been vulnerable.” Marion Gammill, a spokeswoman for Arnold, said he declined to comment. “Phenomanal” returns Centaurus’ performance was equally good in 2005 - a year in which other hedge fund firms, such as Citadel Investment Group and Ritchie Capital, stumbled in energy markets. Returns reached 160% last year, roughly doubling investors’ money after fees, according to SparkSpread.com, a news Web site focused on energy trading. The firm’s first full year in 2003 was “phenomenal” and 2004 was even better, helping Arnold earn an estimated $100 million to $150 million that year, according to Trader Monthly magazine. Centaurus has been closed to new investment for several years and Arnold has been returning money to investors because he wants to ultimately have only his own money and his colleagues’ money in the fund, a person familiar with the manager said. Arnold has returned so much money that investors who got into Centaurus more than a year ago have probably got back more cash than they originally put in, the person added, on condition of anonymity. Arnold is tight-lipped about how he makes such big profits, but he gave a rare glimpse during this year’s annual meeting of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a top industry consultant. Arnold said he looks to place bets when he thinks a market has become “biased,” moving prices away from what he considers fair value, according to a February report about the annual meeting by Platts Power Markets Week. After Enron’s collapse, Arnold said hedge funds stepped in to handle speculative trading in energy markets, while companies and investment banks took on other parts of the market, Platts reported. Arnold’s expertise is mainly in trading natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but Centaurus has diversified into many different types of energy trading. Centaurus is now investing in oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s also building underground storage facilities, allowing the fund to release and inject natural gas as demand and supply fluctuates. In late 2003, Centaurus entered into two swap contracts with Koch Supply & Trading LP, allowing Arnold to bet on the future volatility of crude oil prices versus heating oil. Centaurus’ biggest strength comes from its willingness to provide liquidity in natural gas markets all the time, said Nick Dazzo, who manages customer derivatives business in North and South America for Koch Supply & Trading. When energy companies want to lock in the price of the gas they sell one or two years into the future, Centaurus will take on that risk. The firm will also take on the opposite risk when a company that uses natural gas wants to buy it at a fixed price in the future, he said. “Investment banks and firms like Koch act as intermediaries in the market, but are limited in what risks they can take on,” Dazzo added. “Centaurus is able to take on more of this risk.” By interacting constantly with lots of different market participants, Centaurus gets one of the best insights into market movements, he explained. “They don’t sit back and attempt to divine the market without engaging,” he said. “They have a network of contacts in the market that they use.” High profile, low profile At five foot ten, with brown-reddish hair and boyish looks, Arnold seems younger than his 32 years, say people who have met him. While he’s often feted by brokers during excursions into Houston’s social scene, he remains low-key and conservatively dressed, according to a person who knows him personally and professionally. He recently got engaged. “He was delightful to work with and very down to earth and sincere,” said Elisa Bentivoglio, who designed the interior of Centaurus’ 8,000 foot offices in Houston. “He’s interested in art and culture. It was nice to have a client who appreciates good design.” But despite enriching his investors and trying to keep a low profile, Arnold has upset some people in Houston. He bought a historic property known as Dogwoods in the same up-scale River Oaks neighborhood as former Enron executives Kenneth Lay and Jeff Skilling. The house is next door to Bayou Bend, another historic home that’s part of Houston’s Museum of Fine Arts and is famous for its collection of American decorative arts. When Arnold began demolishing the home - valued at roughly $4.9 million with the land - he angered some locals who worry the city’s heritage is being developed away. “I’m an opponent of John Arnold and all he stands for,” said Jane Dale Owen, president of Clean, an organization that focuses on environmental issues in the Houston area. “He took some of the money that Enron stole from investors and used it to buy that house,” she added. “Now it’s been demolished and an ugly, modern house is being built in its place. I see it as ill-gotten gains for an ill-gotten purpose.” Arnold has yet to begin building his new home and the lot is currently empty. Last year, he told the River Oaks Examiner, a local paper, that he worked hard to find architects who would preserve the “integrity of the site and the neighborhood.” Like his energy trading, Arnold appears to only have become interested in buying the house after its price became more attractive. The home was on the market for roughly half of the past two decades and the price was cut drastically. Still, as Owen’s comments suggest, the regulatory taint of Enron continues to follow Arnold, possibly explaining why he rarely talks publicly. He has never been charged with any wrongdoing in connection with Enron. “We don’t really discuss what we do,” he said in a rare interview with the New York Times in January. Enron’s shadow As one of the most successful Enron alumni, Arnold is sometimes cited by critics of hedge funds’ participation in energy markets, claiming they’ve made prices more volatile for end users such as companies and consumers. In May, Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., suggested that Centaurus and other hedge funds might be manipulating energy markets. “In the absence of much needed consumer protections, former Enron traders who played a central role in artificially inflating electricity rates throughout the West prior to Enron’s collapse continue to make millions in unregulated energy markets at the expense of American consumers,” the senators said in a statement. “One of the Enron traders who booked $750 million in natural gas contracts in 2001, subsequently started Centaurus Energy, a hedge fund company that trades energy commodities,” they added. “American consumers need to be assured that the dramatic escalation in oil prices is not once again the result of energy market manipulation.” Arnold, who graduated from Vanderbilt University, rose to prominence in Enron’s massive energy trading division, becoming head of natural gas derivatives trading. In 2001, when he was 27, he single-handedly made the company $750 million, according to the Houston Chronicle. In 2000, Arnold was often described by Enron public relations as the person who traded one-third of the natural gas market for the company, Platt’s Power Markets Week reported earlier this year. “He was not afraid of size,” said Tom Lord, president of the commodity-markets consultant Volatility Managers and a former Morgan Stanley natural gas trader. “In natural gas markets in the late 1990’s, there were probably four or five people willing to do large trades. He was one of them.” When Enron collapsed, the company sold a big chunk of its energy trading business to Swiss bank UBS AG. But Arnold decided to start his own hedge fund instead. Centaurus now employs more than 40 people and half of its roughly 20 traders used to work at Enron. Greg Whalley, Enron’s former president, works with Arnold at Centaurus. While Arnold is currently flying high, he remains sober about the future, according to a person familiar with the Centaurus manager. Arnold intuitively knows that what happened to Amaranth last month could happen to anyone, the person said. “There are lot of smart people in our business, but there’s also a fair degree of attitude as well,” Koch’s Dazzo said. “John is a very smart guy without the attitude.” End of Story Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Sources for great stuff

The othehr day I was struggling to see some clean sites with modern touch, sites which are started last 2 years to see clean designs . I searched (few days) web but did not find any and struggled and did not find a place where you get a list of sites with good look.

Here is the source crunchbase
- below artlogic site is one example, you can get all modern recently funded sites by filterinng with category

http://www.artlogic.com/ - great new look , simple menus , good art background instead of images

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When I just struggled to get a clean looking site for days , then think about findinng best sites like Mr. K . How can you find , what do you serach on . That is why you need some base some place where somebody did the job and ranked that is Forbes best of web
http://www.forbes.com/bow/b2c/main.jhtml
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great place for new startup enterprenuers to see what already exists , who are the existinng competators in your filed how/when they are funded etc.. If all new enterprenuers read and resrech these companies in their area before starting their company they save months of fruitless labor and money ( by avoidinng starting site in an already crowded area )
http://www.crunchbase.com/company/scribd

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scribd - got great PDF book on candlestick , you can get every document sample and save tons of hours with sample power point , excel etc.
here is good PDF book

see this 'sales presentation' string search gave this
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22026215/Presentation-Sales
ebay presentation - high quality content


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for good site navigation UI , menus , CSS etc.. see my posts in CSS or HTML

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

path to find good books

Here is how I got a good book
1. looking at tradinggodess to refer previously seen pivot calculator link
2. found '10 best candle stick patterns' link on the above site
3. read the above candle stick article and then looked at amazon for candle stick books.
4. found few , looked reviews and then looked back what Mr. K has for candle and got the 'japanese candle stick classic'
5. then looked at High Profit Candlestick Patterns , read all the reviews and found out this is more practical than above classic and this is what I need.

6 asr main point:
I should not get books based on chance like above story , I need to pro-acitvly look and get good books based on reading all 5 star riviews ( a book having all reviews ( every review) 5 star rating )

so based on above 6) I found the following 2 books and saved to wish list.


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All 5 star reviews book
1. Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets (Wiley Trading) by Ashraf Laidi

2. Volatility Trading, + CD-ROM (Wiley Trading) by Euan Sinclair

Volatility Trading,

asr: all reviews 5 star ( I have one other volatility book )

Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is.
- The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade.

- He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists.

- This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology.
- Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals.

review
This is a must for any volatility trader. That being said, it offers a lot to people who trade other products, invest, or make decisions about investment managers. Looking through it now, I would say at least half the book is useful for any type of investor. Perhaps the book should be called "trading with an emphasis on volatility" since it probably doesn't reach a wide enough audience.

asr: the above reviewer other reviews (good books), seems it is needed for any investor as he said
http://www.amazon.com/gp/cdp/member-reviews/AGTYO77U15BCO/ref=cm_cr_pr_auth_rev?ie=UTF8&sort_by=MostRecentReview

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Candle Sticks

WOrden stockfinder webnier on candle stick use 2/ see also I noted 'candle stick' patterns under esiganl ( search esignal ) -------- DOji pattern http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/what-is-a-doji/">1/ WOrden stockfinder webnier on candle stick use
2/ see also I noted 'candle stick' patterns under esiganl ( search esignal )
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DOji pattern


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Heres what the "Bearish Engulfing Formation W/ Confirmation" says:

((C2 > O2) AND (O1 > C1) AND (O1 >= C2) AND (O2 >= C1) AND ((O1 - C1) > (C2 - O2)) AND (O > C) AND (C < C1))

Now thjeres no need to go into all the details Ill just tell you that the first part of the code says "The close 2 days ago is greater than the open 2 days ago AND the open yesterday is greater than the close yesterday, and so on.

Bottom line is this PCF is describing our "Bearish engulfing w/ confirmation"

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http://www.candlestickforum.com/store/products.asp?Category_ID=3 - buy here cheaper than amazon..

asr: I have PDF book saved in mail , to read basic and can give to Indian guy ..

asr: seems my OIL BIG trades that are LOST have these Reversal patterns.
- in this connection , I may need 1) VP 2) TraderGuide 3) these Japanese candles patterns to make swing trades

-- asr: so this Japanese candle originally developed for future markets , so should be good for our OIL and Soy bean etc..
-- asr: it seems this Japanese candle sticks patterns are more for short term trading like hourly and daily chart , where as 'Bulkonow' book explained more long term patterns ( his avg. example trade is 2 to 4 months ..) , so I asr need more 'Japanse canlde ' immediacy ( for OIL , S&P other trades to combine with VP for portifoli advice )
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Fatten your portfolio with High Profit Patterns,
As an example, many investors will enter a trade, cycle through it and once they are out, they forget about it. It turns out that nice runs are ended when investors take their profits and cause a pullback.........or is it major reversal? In "High Profit Candlestick Patterns" the "J-Hook" pattern helps me decide if it's pullback or reversal. Many pullbacks offer a second chance for investors who missed the first run to get in on the second. I, on the other hand, can get a second bite of the apple by getting back into the play using the J-Hook once it confirms a pullback as opposed to a reversal.

Not to be missed is the discussion about Moving Averages. You may be familiar with Moving Averages but you haven't taken full advantage of them until they are combined with the Major signals. Steve shows how to use the probabilities of Support and Resistance at key moving averages to your advantage.

Since one can only make "so many" trades, and so that I don't "overdose", I've settled on using the J-Hook pattern along with plays developing around the key moving averages as my main focus. There is enough usable material in the book to satisfy the needs of any trader or portfolio size.

Trade long enough and you'll be offered many "secrets" that are sold for $47.00, $97.00, on up to infinity and once you have them, you find they work once or twice a year, or only in specific markets or maybe not since 1925. All that ends with "High Profit Candlestick Patterns". Once and for all I can look at a chart and have a high percentage of confidence about when a good trade is developing. Add to that the peace of mind that comes from knowing where the trade is going and when it's likely the time to take profits or let them run.
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Most beginners loose money on the stock market either because their timing for entering and exiting trades is wrong or because they are chasing the wrong stock. Candlestick analysis tells it all and Stephen's latest book explains it very clearly with an important difference.

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review
This book is written for swing and short-term traders. It highlights the important reversal signals and their confirming indicators, like stochastics, trend lines, and moving averages. For the new trader, all the indicators can quickly become a blur. This book zeroes in on only those indicators one really needs to develop reliable entry and exit strategies. As Bigalow says and demonstrates throughout, using candle signals is not rocket science.

For me, the most important chapters were on using candles for options trades and the exit and entry strategies. These were worth the price of the book, in my view. Other chapters spoke my language of the common trading indicators and bullish and bearish price formations. They all come together quite well here.
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these 2 reviews from this page
A successful trader repeats the same analysis, entry and exit strategies again and again over time. That consistent repitition gives the trader confidence and takes the emotion out of trading. Steve Bigalow unlocks the secret of the price bars in clear and easily understandable manner.

I was in a funk with my trading, floundering around with little direction. I read this easy to read book followed the major siganls and stopped looking at a 1/2 dozen oscillators. I now focus on stochastics with a signal and a few moving averages. The book gives you a complete trading sytem for bull and bear markets. GREAT READ

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The book not only describes the 12 main candlestick signals
it also shows patterns including entry and exit points, use
of stops. this gives even a new trader an edge for making profitable tades
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Excellent book on how to trade using candlesticks along with other indicators to maximize your probability of success. He focusses on just 12 major candlesticks which will give more than enough signals. Then intrduces high profit patterns, support and resistance at major moving averages, trendlines, ect. A key point is when also learning when to get out. One point he made on looking for the end on the move saved me from a nasty correction before I was even near finished with this book. This book will help you make money!
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I have a Library full of Trading books and even though I could understand in theory I had a hard time in applying what I was learning to a stock chart.
Since reading Steves' books I now have the ability to better read a stock chart. He actually tells you when to start looking for key reversals on a chart. Through repetition and practice I can actually see what the candles are telling me at these points which are the simple mavs 20 50 200 as well as overbought and oversold areas. My page now has structure to it.I can quickly spot a cradle, a scoop and a Jay Hook pattern. I am now able to better use the candle as a stop loss and recognize where a stock is likely to go to. And yes I make lots of money now. Many thanks Steve.

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While going through my list of 'Stocks to Watch', I am better able to pick out the highest probability trades by using the information in Steve's book. The 12 Major Signals chapter narrows the whole trading with candlesticks process down to the best of the best. There are plenty of annotated charts showing examples of candlestick patterns. The book contains only the 'meat' of learning how to use candlesticks. I join Steve's weekly Candlestick Chat Room every Thursday evening. It's free and Steve goes into great detail about what is going on in the market by using the candlestick patterns described in the book. You just can't beat it. I've sent dozens of fellow traders to his website: www.candlestickforum.com. Read the book first, keep it handy for reference, join in the Chat Room and start making better trades. Thank you Steve.
--
His illustrations of how to use the candlestick signals in
trading patterns and applied to other technical indicators makes finding high probability trades very easy to identify
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asr: I need to buy this book ( Mr. K list and and this article author list) . I need to learn this
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques,
-- Although his clear illustrated examples use mostly futures, these methods definitely apply to equities as well.



review:
However, something was missing... That was major reversal patterns that occur at tops or bottoms. I have lost a lot of money as a result for several trades that were supposed to yield excellent returns using the system i learned all due to my failure and ignorance to understand a missing trading puzzle... Yes, that happens to be candlestick reversal patterns. I still remember them to be, the "Morning star"," Shooting Star" and "Bullish Engulfing pattern". After learning these patterns, the results were shocking. My losses were cut to a minimum,


10 Best Candlestick Patterns

There are many candlestick patterns but only a few are actually worth knowing. Here are 10 candlestick patterns worth looking for.

Remember that these patterns are only useful when you understand what is happening in each pattern.

They must be combined with other forms of technical analysis to really be useful. For example, when you see one of these patterns on the daily chart, move down to the hourly chart. Does the hourly chart agree with your expectations on the daily chart? If so, then the odds of a reversal increase.

The following patterns are divided into two parts: Bullish patterns and bearish patterns. These are reversal patterns that show up after a pullback (bullish patterns) or a rally (bearish patterns).
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outside Reviews , outside of Amazon

candle patterns, moving averages, indicators are all indicators. it gives indications and way to unerstand what is happening in the scrip. if candles give diff views in short time frame what about indicators and moving averages. it also give the flaws still one shoul accept and feel candles are always in better position to give best scenario compare to others.
- best thing about candles it that it gives you opportunity to buy at the lowest level and sell at the highest level. after long time studying and playing with all the tools i am 100% sure this is the best tool availble in the market compare to all other tools.
- i was making losses with all other things with lot of stress while analysis. candles has changed the perception of analysis.
- better is that one should try to understand more closely what steve nisan and stepphen bigalow indicate that it should be used with western charting tools will increase the efficiency, that only thing i want to say.

------

Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts

Encyclopedia Critique,
Mr.Bulkowski dedicates a chapter to each one of 103 individual candlestick patterns, most of which are reversal patterns.

The chapters are ususally 8-9 pages long and have the format: behavior & rank: identification guidelines:- statistics: trading tactics: a sample trade and advice on optimizing the use of that pattern.

For me, the author's most interesting finding was that more than one quarter of the patterns do not act as would be expected, e.g.in a bull market, the common Harami Bear and Hanging Man result in a bullish continuation most of the time. This is a good reference work. A mass of data is presented and a glossary/methodology provided.

The product would have been greatly improved by illustrating the terms used in the glossary (some of which are quite complex) with actual numerical examples. Finally, there is no discussion of using technical indicators, such as stochastics, with candlestick patterns.

Trading Strategies

10 Best Candlestick Patterns
Swing Traders Action Zone - The Trading Strategy

The Traders Action Zone (TAZ) is a buy and sell zone on a chart that swing traders can use to identify possible reversals in a stock.

This is just simply "area" that we look at to see if a stock that is in a strong uptrend, after pulling back to this area, will likely reverse.

First of all, let’s take a look at all of the different types of traders involved in the stock market when looking at a daily chart.

Then, we will look at where they buy stocks. We'll focus on the long side only.



------
Trading Pullbacks - Buy Weakness and Sell Strength

Buying weakness and selling strength is the art of buying pullbacks. Stocks that are in up trends will pull back offering a low risk buying opportunity and stocks that are in downtrends will rally offering a low risk shorting opportunity.

As a swing trader, you have to WAIT for these opportunities to happen because…

Doesn’t it make more sense to buy a stock after a wave of selling has occurred rather than getting caught in a sell-off?

------


How to trade gaps on a stock chart

Are all gaps created equal? Nope. There are really only two significant factors to consider when trading gaps.

You have to be able to identify if the gap is caused by professional traders or amateur traders. There is a big difference between the two!
--------

How to Get a Good Entry on a Stock

----
How to Read Charts Through Different Time Periods

Looking at multiple time frames can give you a better idea of what is happening with a stock. For swing trading, we can break this down into 4 time periods: The daily, weekly, 60 minute, and 5 minute time frames.

Looking at a stock through different time frames can be confusing if you are a new trader. Why? Because each time frame looks different! A stock may look great on the daily chart, but look horrible on a 5 minute chart.
----------------

How To Use The ADX Indicator
The ADX indicator measures the strength of a trend and can be useful to determine if a trend is strong or weak. High readings indicate a strong trend and low readings indicate a weak trend.

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/chart-patterns.html

---------

Finding Relative Strength
Find Out if a Stock is Strong or Weak

Relative strength refers to how strong a stock is relative to something else. This could be either how strong it is compared to the overall market or the industry group that it is in.

If it is stronger, than then we say that it has relative strength. If it is weaker, than we say that it has relative weakness.
Relative Strength

To improve your odds of a successful trade, you want only want to trade stocks on the long side that are stronger than the market itself. One way to do this is to compare it to the S&P500.


How To Use Fibonacci Retracements
---------

10,000-Hour Rule

In his recent book Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell describes the 10,000-Hour Rule, claiming that the key to success in any cognitively complex field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours.

10,000 hours equates to around 4hrs a day for 10 years.
asr: 1) Bulkowski put these 10,000 hours , ofcourse he might have put 8 hours a day , so it might have took him 5 years.
- 2) Mr. K must have put 4 hours a day that is ( outside trading ) for 10 years for sure.

3) The amount of time spent on their trading outside of trading hours (preparation, reading, etc.);

For some reason most people that 'try their hand' at trading view it as a get rich quick scheme. That in a very short space of time, they will be able to turn $500 into $1 million! It is precisely this mindset that has resulted in the current economic mess, a bunch of 20-somethings being handed the red phone for financial weapons of mass destruction. The greatest traders understand that trading much like being a doctor, engineer or any other focused and technical endeavor requires time to develop and hone the skill set. Now you wouldn't see a doctor performing open heart surgery after 3 months on a surgery simulator. Why would trading as a technical undertaking require less time?

Trading success, comes from screen time and experience, you have to put the hours in!

Tools / Favorite Trading Techniques and Tools

Online Investment Tracking Spreadsheet with google finance

-------------
Here are some trading technique posts relevant to evaluating short-term sentiment and trading patterns in the stock market:

* A NYSE TICK primer: evaluating intraday sentiment;

* The Cumulative NYSE TICK and its use;

* Reading data from Market Delta charts;

* Identifying range markets;

* Identifying downtrend days in the market;

* Identifying uptrend days in the market;

* Making the breakout trade.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Trading Futures vs. Stocks

No Broker or Counterparty Risk
The National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission require that Futures Commission Merchants, also known as futures brokers, hold client funds in an account segregated from their own capital. This is unlike a stock firm that accepts a client deposit and, aside from stating that it belongs to the client on a statement, is free to put the money to use as it sees fit. Assuming that futures brokers follow the rules, their bankruptcy will not have an impact on funds deposited by the client. Despite some government-funded insurances, this might not always be the case for equity traders.

asr: Ravi did our taxes this way , so we know it
Favorable Tax Treatment and Ease of Reporting
Here is the nail in the coffin regarding the equity argument. Futures traders—assuming that they are speculating profitably—face much less tax burden than stock and ETF traders. In futures, there is no distinction between long-term and short-term capital gains. Instead, all trades are taxed at a 40%-60% blend between long and short term. Even the profit on a trade that has a time span of a minute will be taxed 40% at the preferable long-term gains rate. This is, of course, presuming that at the end of the year, the cumulative results are positive

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

setup Northington RSIV

Be a Lean, Mean Investing Machine

Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index and the stochastic oscillator, are commonly used to identify price points that are considered oversold or overbought. In range-bound markets, these classic tools can work well. However, once price begins a solid directional trend, these indicators’ ability to identify relevant oversold and overbought levels is greatly handicapped by the nature of their arithmetic.

Best Practices

Here are some recommended best practices for the Northington RSIV
:

• The Northington RSIV is for use in a confirmed price trend. Use other methods to determine the beginning and end of a trend.

• Consider entering a long position in an uptrend when the Northington RSIV (30, 40) crosses below 30.

• Consider entering a short position in a downtrend when the Northington RSIV (30, 40) crosses above 70.

• When a countertrend signal is generated, consider taking in the position for 25 percent to 33 percent of the look-back duration of the indicator. Be sure that the broader market is also similarly overbought or oversold. This is to be used as part of an overall risk-reduction practice.

• Gaps can nullify an extreme reading. Allow price to move away from the gap by the number of the look-back periods. Gaps can cause issues with many technical analysis indicators.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Daily Notes

For what it is worth, Gold $GLD is testing the top end of its trend channel
http://www.kirkreport.com/09/gld_11_16_09.gif
- asr: 1) seems this is SELL signal for short term traders.
- point to look in this chart: 2) Innovanalytics red/green lines are shown at bottom , this gives good entry point around OCT and OCT 26 . Combine these 2 points with ATR/Stocastic this will act as '2 systems' confirming each other.
- how this trend channel was drawn?: 3) the top channel is not based on price since no price touched the top level earlier , so it it based on certain parameters of price ( 3% above 10 DMA etc..) need to find out . this is good to know since SELL signals are hard to find it seems this is one.

----
I don't receive any emails about $UNG anymore. Is that a double-bottom setup I see?
--
The best performing stock today in the stock screen machine is Rightnow Tech $RNOW
- refused to get oversold:? does it mean red stoc did not fall below 0 line ? or white line
- comment: difficult to get good entry points
---

Small Caps
http://www.kirkreport.com/09/tna_11_16_09.gif
- trend channel ( need to how it is drawn double lines), see Teresa Lo red/green and stops are used

Stock Screens

http://www.manualofideas.com/

Mr. K ref link, he may be using it to get Ideas
http://www.manualofideas.com/files/content/value_stock_screen_ytd_price_decliners.pdf

http://www.manualofideas.com/bargainhunter.html

Long-term buy and hold investor

Crossing Wall Street
Long-term buy and hold investor provides views and recommendations.

asr: interesting this guy changes list of 20 only once a year.
- Mr. K has this in his blog list, this site has Mr.K as ref. link

asr: we can use this kind of strategy of buy/hold for OIL 3-2-1, 2-1-1 cracks from MAR to SEP and sell SEP to MAR.

The Crossing Wall Street Buy List contains 20 stocks. I’ve provided each stock’s name, ticker, current price, year-to-date return and a brief company description. I change the Buy List just once a year, on January 1. After that, the Buy List is set for the next 12 months. In mid-December, I’ll unveil next year’s list.


Nicholas Financial (NICK) which dropped 67.5%, although I’m sticking with in 2009.
--asr: this is power of BUY/hold , NICK lost 67% in 2008 , but this guy hold it for one more year of 2009 now it returned 200% in 2009 ..


Do you own the stocks on your Buy List?
Yes. You can assume that I own all of the stocks I recommend. Your pain or gain is also mine.

favorite links

How to trade earnings

- for trading earnings additional good source is BEspoke premium which gives historic trades on earnings breaks.
- this stockbee subscription seems 2 nd best one, since Pradeep specialized in earnings.

The earning season is fast approaching. Earning season offers some of the best opportunities for profitable trading. PEAD or post earnings announcement drift is a well studied and proven market anomaly. Stocks which have significant earnings surprise or acceleration, breakout post earnings and rally for next 3-6 months as market reacts to this new earnings power. Sometimes these rallies last years.

So if you are looking for a profitable strategy to trade, you might be interested in putting together a working plan for next earning season.

* Earnings Data Sources: You need a reliable source for earnings. I use the Investors Business Daily and Wall Street Journal for this. Besides these two there are many other sources of earnings. When choosing a source I look at how they adjust earnings for one time events. Overall IBD does a better job on this.
* Three types of earnings announcements: Earnings announcements are made after close, before close and in some rare set of companies during market hours. I concentrate on the earnings announced after market close. They appear in the IBD daily edition under 'Company Earnings Report' section.
* What to look for in earnings: To narrow the set of companies to track and trade for this strategy, based on my prior experience, I only track companies whose earnings are up 100% or more quarter over quarter and the earnings should be at least 5 cents. Sales/revenue should be up 5% or more. Doubling of earnings is significant. Few companies meet that criteria. So I put all the stock meeting this criteria in a list. Now what one is looking for is earnings acceleration. IBD will have those stocks with up arrow to indicate earnings acceleration. Besides that I look for price action on that stock by looking at how much they are up in last 65 days or so. I am looking for stocks which have not rallied in anticipation of earnings. Even better is stock which has no analyst coverage and is neglected. Stocks with less than 100% plus earnings also breakout, but to prioritize, I only focus on above 100.
* Breakout: An earnings surprise on stock which has not rallied significantly will lead to breakout next day. Most of the time I will enter in the morning and add to position later if the volume climbs above average volume. Many times such stocks will gap up 5 to 300% on day of earnings and still make further moves of 20 to several hundred percent in next 3 to 12 months. I look to capture such moves. Most of these breakouts will have minor pullback at best and just go up for 2 to 6 weeks before having a reaction. So if you don't enter on the earnings day you will be just a observer.
* Stops: I put stops 1 dollar below the gap low if it is gap up or at 2 days low and trail with stop. In these trades I move my stops quickly once it makes 20% move. Objective in such method is to capture several 20% moves.
* Watchlist: I maintain a watch list of stocks which respond with a high breakout on earnings day of 4% plus for next one year. These stocks often have several more breakouts during the year and make multi month or multi year moves. All major movers like NTRI, HANS, TIE, AAPL, ICE, GROW and several others had series of 100% plus earnings growth during their entire rally period. The oil stocks which had a stellar rallies for last couple of years or the steel stocks also had several triple digit earnings.
* How many opportunities: Even in bear markets you will find opportunities using this strategy. If you set up your system properly, you should find 20-25 opportunities like this in every earnings season. When market expectations are low, or market has had several months of correction, you will find 50 to 100 opportunities in an earning season.

So if you are looking for making gang buster returns in this coming earning season, just get your databases and information sources in place and you will find several opportunities. This is one trade which is easiest to trade as there is clear identifiable catalyst. Plus in a year there are 4 earnings season.

Season of profitable opportunities starts next week. You will be pleasantly surprised by the results you get. Carpe diem.
--


How to profit from earnings season
July 07, 2009 -- asr recent 2009 article

So when a company announces earnings and it is "surprisingly" good or bad it leads to a rally lasting 2 to 3 months. Earnings EP are easiest to understand and act on. The market reaction tells you whether this earnings was :surprise" and "significant". The stock will immediately go up post such announcement and the move will be supported by high volume. You can create a scan captures such breakout. It should basically looks for a out-sized price move on high volume post earnings. One of the simple way to create a scan like this in Telechart is:

((C - C1) >= 5 AND V > 10000 AND C >= 62.50 AND V > V1) OR ((( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 8 AND V > 3000 AND (100 * V / AVGV100) >= 300) AND C > 1)


Guideline for finding good earnings breakouts:

* 100% plus EPS+100% plus sales+ first or second earnings acceleration+float below 25 million+prior neglect+no analyst coverage. Best combination
* 40% plus EPS+ IPO of less than a year. Second best combination.
* 100% plus earnings surprise+below 100 million float+ one month price growth below 5%+first earnings surprise. Third best combination.
* Retailer+price within 25% of 52 week low+earnings surprise of 25% plus+float below 100 million. Fourth best combination.

http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/01/trading-earnings-breakouts-part3.html
------

http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/04/earnings-and-bulkowski.html

http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/06/indicator-marking-in-telechart.html


stockBee site also gives this 25% up, down etc. screens
http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2009/03/49-stocks-are-up-50-plus-in-month.html

selection based on fudamental data parameters

asr: seems this book examines the methods used for stock selection based on fundamental criteria ( earnigs growth , sales etcc. )

The book advises a reaction technique, dubbed STRACT to beat the market. It involves no prediction, it just reacts to the market and data. STRACT refers to three step reaction:


http://www.amazon.com/Beat-Market-Invest-Knowing-Stocks/dp/0132439786/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258396663&sr=8-1

setup, -S
trigger, - TR
and the action. -ACT

It offers STRACT buy and sell setups. So if a stock meets certain scan conditions it qualifies for a buy and when it satisfies certain scan conditions , it triggers a sell.

asr: this Kirk is different than our Mr. K. It seems our Mr. K follows similar technique of STRACT ( setup , trigger and ACT ) may use little different parameters but basic is do nOT predict market ACT only on Market DATA . Here Mr. K setup is Stock screen machine SCM and has a detailed notes what to when it triggers , notes is written at setup time not when it triggers ( that was mentioned in the blog).

- we need to do same STRACT for OIL , currencies based on our VP back test result.


# For last 25 years the author has been following a "relative" approach to equity selection. Stocks are ranked either by relative value, relative earnings or relative strength. So when looking for value the author does not look at the value of company but as a relative value compared to all other stocks in the market.
# For ranking stocks by value the author uses the price to sales ratio. The logic being sales are comparatively difficult to manipulate compared to earnings. He uses price to sales ratio of last four quarters and compares it to previous four quarters a year ago. But instead of looking at absolute value, he looks at relative ranking of stocks using the ratio. The P/S ratio is very easy available information and all finance sites provide this information.
# For ranking stocks by growth the author uses change in earnings. Again he looks at last 4 quarters of earnings growth compared to previous year 4 quarters. But instead of looking at absolute value, he looks at relative ranking of stocks using the earnings growth rate.
# For measuring relative strength the author follows a approach similar to the approach outlined by Robert A. Levy in his 1968 article in Journal Of Finance:Relative Strength as Criteria for Investment Selection . Levy proposed using a ratio of closing price/131 day moving average to calculate price relative strength. The author uses 121 days instead of 131.
# Charles Kirkpatrick key findings about relative value based stock selection are:

* There is inverse relationship between relative price to sales ratio and relative price performance
* Stocks with relative value percentile of 17 to 47 have best chance of outperforming the market over the following three months
* Stocks with ultra low valuation (relative valuation below 7 percentile) have poor performance.
* Stocks with relative percentile between 87 and 99 are worst buy candidates.
* In a bear market the best buy candidates based on relative valuation are between 17th and 27 th percentile.
* The best sell triggers are above 57 percentile or below 7 th percentile during bear markets

# Charles Kirkpatrick key findings about relative earnings based stock selection are:

* Relative earnings growth is a poor criteria for selecting stocks ( IBD followers might find this news very disturbing!!!)
* Stocks with top 10 percentile ranking by relative earnings growth (or in other words stock ranked 90 % plus by EPS raning) perform poorly compared to market
* The authors research conclusively proves that using relative earnings to select stocks for future performance has no edge.
* Stocks with relative EPS percentile of 42 to 87 are good selection candidates for 3 to 6 month holding period.
* During bull market relative earnings is as effective method for selecting stocks

# Charles Kirkpatrick key findings about relative price strength based stock selection are:

* The most reliable technique for selecting stocks in both bull and bear market is relative price strength
* it does not work for short periods (below 3 month holding periods) and periods longer than a year
* relative price strength breeds more relative price strength and relative weakness breeds further weakness.
* Stocks with relative price percentile rank above 47 outperform market in next 3 month, but higher the rank the better

# Neither relative price strength nor reported earnings growth nor relative valuation has any predictive value 12 months in future.
# By combining relative price strength and relative value ranking the author creates a "bargain list" every week. The Bargain List Model is the heart of this book.
# Bargain List buy triggers:

* Relative price strength>=97
* Relative price to sales percentile>=17 and <=42
* Market cap>1 Million
* stock price> 10


# Bargain List sale triggers:

* relative price strength <52>
* relative price to sales percentile <=7 or >=67


# You can set this up in Telechart very easily. See my post about this:
--------

There are predominantly four investing styles followed by investors:

1. Value
2. Growth
3. Momentum
4. Arbitrage

When looking at books on trading , it helps to look at books by these investment styles. Growth investors invest in companies that are growing at above average growth rate. They are more focused on sales and earnings growth and willing to pay higher premium for such stocks.

Growth stock investors are high expectation investors as against value investors who are low expectation investor. The basic assumption behind growth investing is that the market will continue to reward a company growing faster than other companies. the key to success in growth investing is to identify early stage growth company and ride it till it is growing and abandon it before the growth slows down. Often growth investors are called patsies playing the greater fool game.

These are some of the books related to growth investing from my personal collection.

CANSLIM is IBD besed method
24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success: Learn the Most Important Investment Techniques from the Founder of Investor's Business Dail

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asr: some more reviews of books ( mostly fundamental methods )
can you learn from trading books
http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2008/12/can-you-learn-trading-from-books-part-1.html

Quotes

"The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly."

~ William O'Neil

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15 Free Must-Install Programs for Your New PC

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Forbes best of web bow
asr: from this BOW where I found Mr. K as the best which is true so use this to find BEST in any cateory
http://www.forbes.com/bow/b2c/main.jhtml --

http://www.forbes.com/bow/b2c/category.jhtml?id=105

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Docstoc – Documents, Templates, Forms, Ebooks, Papers & Presentations
Docstoc is a community for people to find and share professional documents. Find free legal documents and free business documents.

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http://digg.com/search?s=top+PC+tools

Over the last three years, the writers here at MakeUseOf have profiled thousands of software apps on the website. With all these thousands being presented to you, it’s hard to decide which apps to use and which ones to discard. To make it easier for you, we have managed to compile a list of the top 15 absolute must-have tools for everyday tasks.

1. Firefox / Chrome (Web Browser)
2. AVG Anti-Virus (Anti-virus Software)
3. Auslogics Disk Defrag (Disk Defragmener)
4. Advanced SystemCare Free (System Maintenance)
5. Security 360 (Spyware Removal)
6. IZArc (Universal Archiver / Extractor)
7. Google Picasa Software (Photo Management)
8. doPDF (PDF Printer)
9. Memento (Post-It Notes)
10. xVideoServiceThief (YouTube Video Downloader)
11. Mozy (Backup)
12. Digsby (Multi-protocol Instant Messenger)
13. VLC Media Player (Video Player)
14. Foobar2000 (Music Player)
15. ImgBurn (CD / DVD Image Burner)
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Top 10 Free Windows File Wranglers

http://digg.com/software/Top_10_Free_Windows_File_Wranglers_2

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Trading plan

1/ see doc and pdf versions at this link , this seems real trade wrote the plan from member 'OrangeRoshan'
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=4073


2/ this is more classic version of above plan 1)
http://www.trade2win.com/media/knowledge/tim-wilcox/T2W_Trading_Plan_Template_2005.pdf


3/ Trading Plan Template

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Chart patterns

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Buknoski Starts at the bottom of the blog post ( after lots of white space )

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Intra day Chart patterns:

How to Trade Bull Glag
Bear Flag combined with Corey 3/10 momentum
asr: one has to practice these with intrdday data with esignal 'Replay' mode ( i think they provide 3 to 4 months intra day data for $29 )
- good thing they have build-in replay mode , you set delay and barlength( 5 min or 10 min et..) so you just sit and do paper trade .

-------------
Chart Patterns & Technical Analysis

asr: simple and easy read of major patterns.

If human emotion drives buying and selling behavior, then chart patterns can help to determine where such emotions may next surface. Chart patterns are the depiction of trading psychology in motion.

Chart patterns help traders to determine market direction as well as time entries and exits. A trader must be able to identify chart patterns properly. Only then can a trader benefit from chart patterns.

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Mr. K ref
Friday 11/13/09. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
- wow: so detailed patterns , good to check these when trading a stock where it stands

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software , it exists for telechart check
http://thepatternsite.com/patternz.html
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Pattern Quiz
This page gives you access to stock market trading quizzes that show techniques for trading and profiting from chart patterns. Many of the quizzes are based on actual trades I made in the stock market, and they discuss stop placement, price prediction, and quiz you on chart pattern identification. The goal is to teach you to profit from trading chart patterns.

Notes: The list is sorted by stock symbol. S means it is a quiz highlighting support and resistance, T means it is based on an actual trade I made, and no suffix means it is just a hypothetical quiz.
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Different Chart pattern software in market

1. features -
http://thepatternsite.com/CPI.html#AADB4 -- see Patternz setup
-
- works only on Daily charts , NO intraday , Free
- Setups http://thepatternsite.com/setups.html

2. Wedges, Triangles, and Rectangles to Trade with Raghee Horner - this is ref. form Mr. K daily notes link
- atuocharttist commentary ( right to chart )on strength of patterns seems usefult on intraday data like 5, 30, 60 min data charts. Patternz dose NOT work on intraday min. charts) data and Trade-ideas offer only scans does not show Chart Visually you need to darw it visually yourself after looking at trade-ideas alert. so in this respect autochartist offers some thing not the above 2 offers.
- autochartist is $25/month and works on Nasdaq/nyse stocks , so can be tried ..
- Reviews - Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan on IBFX-GPS , 2007 OCT review
review text: This tool can be useful to determine the likelihood of the direction of a price move once a pattern is completed. This, in turn, will help you determine whether you want to open a new position or continue holding any current positions.
- FAQ *********************
- user Manual
- price

- Services: Chart patterns, Fibonacci patterns, PowerStats, Pro Series tutorials Exchanges supported: Forex, NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX

3. John Murphys Chart Pattern Recognition
- In addition, the reports will give you price projections where the security price will move within a specified period of time.
- Identifies both trend reversal and continuation patterns.
When analyzing chart patterns, technical analysts generally categorize them in two groups: (1) patterns that predict trend reversal and (2) patterns that predict trend continuation.
- asr: this seems like patternz with little more commercial polished ..

4. Trade-Ideas: used by Mr. K and trader Mike ( for alerts of patterns )
- 7_day_consolidation
- see 'Position in Consolidation' see this text at this URL
- see Training
- 20 above 200 Period SMA (2m)

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Pattern

Failure rate

Throwback (%) Rise / Decline Aver. (%) Rise / Decline Likely (%)
Rectangle Bottom Upside breakout
0%

Throwback 61%


46%
20%
Rectangle Top Downside Breakout
0%
Pullback 55%
-20%
-20%


Broadening Bottom,Upside Breakout


2%
NS
25%
-10%
Rectangle Top Upside Breakout
2%

Throwback 53%


52%
20-30%
Ascending Triangle
2%

Throwback 58%

44%
20%

Symmetrical Triangle Bottom Downside Breakout

2%
Pullback 57%
-19%
-10%
Falling Wedge
2%


Throwback 47%

43%
20-30
Double Bottom
3%

Throwback 68%

40%
20%

Symmetrical Triangle Bottom Upside Breakout


3%


Throwback 43%

41%
20%
Broadening Top, Down Breakout
4%
NS
-23%
-10.00%
Broadening Top, Up Breakout
4%
NS
34%
 -15-20%


Rectangle Bottom Downside Breakout

4%
Pullback 70%
-19%
-20%
Descending Triangle
4%
Pullback 64%
-19%
-20%
Triple Bottom
4%


Throwback 70%


38%
20%
Head & Shoulders Bottom
5%

Throwback 52%

38%
20-30%
Rounding Bottom
5%
NS
54%
20%

Symmetrical Triangle Top Upside Breakout

5%


Throwback 58%

37%
20%


Broadening Bottom,Downside Breakout

6%
NS
-27%
 -15-20%
Complex Head & Shoulders Bottom
6%

Throwback 47%


37%
20-30%
Rounding Top
6%
NS
41%
20-40%


Symmetrical Triangle Top Downside Breakout

6%
Pullback 59%
-20%
-15%
Rising Wedge
6%
Pullback 53%
-19%
-15%
Head & Shoulders Top
7%
Pullback 45%
-23%
-15%
Complex Head & Shoulders Top
8%
Pullback 64%
-27%
-20%
Cup & Handle
10%

Throwback   74%

38%
10-20%
Dead Cat Bounce
10%
NS
-15%
-15%
Bear Flag
12%
Pullback 20%
-17%
-15%
Diamond Bottom
13%

Throwback   43%


35%
15%
Bull Flag
13%

Throwback 10%


19%
20%
Bearish Island Reversal
13%
Pullback 65%
-21%
-10%
Triple Top
15%
Pullback 84%
-21%
-10%
Double Top
17%
Pullback 69%
-20%
-10%
High Tight Flag
17%

Throwback 47%


63%
20-30%
Bullish Island Reversal
17%

Throwback 70%

34%
20%
One Day Reversal Bottom
17%

Throwback 61%

26%
10-15%
Bullish Pennant
19%


Throwback 16%

21%
15-20%
One Day Reversal Top
24%
 Pullback 71%
-19%
-10%
Diamond Top
25%
Pullback 59%
-21%
-20%
Outside Day, Upside Breakout
25%
NS
32%
10%
Bearish Pennant
34%
Pullback 17%
-17%
-25%
Outside Day, Downside Breakout
42%
NS
-17%
-10%
Inside Day, Downside Breakout
51%
NS
-10%
-5
Inside Day, Upside Breakout
56%
NS
13%
5%