http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/energy.html
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/
on EIA crude stocks data release day 9/23 here is DUG ( 2x short) , USO and UNG
note: see at 10:30
1) DUG 2x short first raised +4% when USO dropped -4% at 10:40
2) by 11 am DUG dipped to 3% ( in line with USO )
3) by 11:15 raised to 4% ( in line with USO )
4) then in next 2 hours DUG dropped from 4% to 2% while USO is at -4%
5) see if this sudden euphoria of panic buying in DUG to cash the OIL short then subsequent fade is repeated historically on EIA WEDnesdays . This can be tested with TradeStation intraday data since DUG, USO are both stocks like as far as data is concerned.
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DTO is 2x double sort , true 2x inverse of USO
- I do not see much performance diff betwene USO ( month to month roll vs. USL (12 month roll )
post note: it seems DUG is mixed ETF of OIL and Natural gas , so not pure inverse of USO where as DTO is pure inverse of USO yahoo chart showed it.
- also the article below points to DTO for OIL short not DUG so that also tells pure oil short play is DTO.
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DIG: DIG is +2x where as DUG is -2x of Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index
DUG : The Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index measures the performance of the energy sector of the U.S. equity market.
DIG is like CNQ where CNQ is canadian based single energy company which has exploration,disribution etc. of OIL where as DIG does similar to CNQ but DIG has set of oil, drilling etc.. as a group companies.
Oil and Gas Producers 77.39%
Oil Equipment, Services and Distribution 21.65%
Exxon 31% , Chevron 12% ,Schlumberger 6%
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index
note: see on 9/23 at 10:30 DUG try to do inverse of USO at begining even that is only 1:1 ( 4%) but at that time Exxon, chevron dropped only 1% while DUG at 4% .
- if Exxon/chevron stayed at -1% , the best can be DUG can stay at +2% since it is 2X inverse of DowUSoilGas index. so there is short opty for DUG to come from +4 to +2%
- wheat heppened is Exxon/chevron revered from -1% to 0% , then DUG came down from +4 to +1%
- test DUG on WEDNESDAY EIA Data days again +3 or -3% of CL curde light future with respect to component weight values of EXXON/CHEV etc.. back test and see how they are doing ..
Study 2:
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Study USO , WTI ( future contract ) down days along with CNQ as shown in other article and also witnenessed on 9/23 as shown below
- include this CNQ in trade station study in the back testing. this CNQ is different twist than DTO , CNQ is purly play of OIL
- notice after morning drop along with USO , CNQ recovered quikly..
- trade ideas: after back testing with TS, one stragetgy to employ is after 10:30 EIA drop CNQ has dropped already so either a) go LONG CNQ b) LONG CNQ/short USO , this b) is conservative ralative Trade.
- We want to specilize "OIL relative trades" ( one short/one LONG) of different types ,
a) OIL/S&P
b) OIL/EURO ( WTI , EURO Fx spot/futture)
c) this is a) and b) same time so 2 OIL contracts/LONG , 1 S&P short , 1 EURO short
d) WTI long/ DUG short after OIL fall 10:30 am on WED EIA report
e) WIT short/CNQ LONG after OIL fall 10:30 am on WED EIA report
( for this e) case we have 2 validated back tests 1) 9/23 image attached 2) 2/9/09 see OIL volatality aritcle
f) OIL recovery days after drop: 9/21 and 9/22 CNQ raised better than USO seems CNQ is running ahead of USO for over recovery ( see my chart , we need to back test this for all oil raise days )
e) find is there any stock corrlating to CNQ like pURE OIL PLAY .
(of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), a reasonably liquid Canadian producer of over 565,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a $30 billion enterprise value.)
OIL test SETUPs
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setup S1 : OIL WTI up 2% or more on the day ( try with param 2% , 3% , 4% ), short WTI/long ES
S2 : OIL WTI up 2% or more on the day , short WTI/long EURUSD
s3 : S1 & S2
S4 : OIL UP 3% combined for Monday & tuesday , SHORT WTI TUesady close/LONG(ES + EUROUSD )
S5 : OIL down 3% at 10:45 am on WEDnesday after EIA report WTI is settled at low , LONG CNQ
S6 : OIL down 3% at 10:45 am on WEDnesday after EIA report WTI is settled at low , short DUG
- first in TS get Dates for meeting those conditions then from those dates try intraday trade staring once Trade started thru EUROPEAN sessioin , exit when NET profit from OIL/ES/EURO combined is 1% of WTI entry price ( 70 cents net profit when OIL entry price is $70 )
- on Daily Chart WTI have commentary when placed on each bar ( each day) commentary box like " 2 day combined gain is 3.5% , 5 day gain is 4.5% , RSI(2) is 89 like that" so that we can mouse over each bar and see notes and run SETUP based on those
- Have a secondary graph on WIT graph showing ( WTI - ES ) , ( WTI - EURUSD ), (2 * WIT - ES -EURUSD )
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comparision chart of EURO OIL SP ( sumbols FXE USO SPY )
EURO OIL S&P
The Complete List of Currency ETFs
The number of Foreign Currency ETFs and ETNs has exploded in the past year. Our readers at AboutETFs.com have asked us repeatedly to publish an updated list of all currency ETFs and currency ETNs. So, by popular demand, here they are as of September 1, 2008:
INDIVIDUAL CURRENCY PRODUCTS
* RydexShares ETFs: Australian Dollar (FXA), British Pound (FXB), Canadian Dollar (FXC), Euro (FXE), Japanese Yen (FXY), Mexican Peso (FXM), Swedish Krona (FXS) and Swiss Franc (FXF)
* WisdomTree ETFs: Euro (EU), Japanese Yen (JYF), Brazilian Real (BZF), Indian Rupee (ICN), New Zealand Dollar (BNZ), US Current Income Fund (USY), Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB) and South African Rand (SZR)
* Barclays iPath ETNs: Euro (ERO), British Pound ((GBB) and Japanese Yen (JYN)
* Elements ETNs: Australian Dollar (ADE), British Pound (EGB), Canadian Dollar (CUD), Euro (ERE) and Swiss Franc (SZE)
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EURO short: EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) should gain 2% (before fees and expenses). On the other side of the coin, if the euro rises 1% against the dollar in one day, EUO should lose 2% (before fees and expenses)
: Double Short Euro (DRR)
this guy said buy DRR as he see pressure on EURO in AUG 2008 , this chart he prediction is correct
- may he he can be our EURO consultant on daily basis ...
- this guy seems correct on this JULY 31 prediction on
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Make Your Play and Hedge Your Bets in OIL
United States 12 Month Oil and PowerShares DB Oil are two alternative oil ETFs that could be used in place of the USO due to their setup, which seeks to mitigate the effects of contango. We could take a long position in those two securities while simultaneously shorting the USO in an effort to profit from the impact of contango.
Furthermore, we'd add an additional short position in the ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF . I would create the original setup in the following ratio:
- asr SZO (1:1) , DUG (2x), DTO (2x) these 3 are OIL SHORT
- asr all these 4 below are OIL LONG 1:1 levarege funds
* $200 long USL,
* $200 long DBO,
* $100 short USO, and
* $100 short UCO.
This is simply a modified net long position, similar to buying $100 in USL, DBO or even USO, but paired in such a way that over the long term, the grouping actually benefits from contango and volatility, two words that fly out of your mouth when talking about oil prices.
- The USL/DBO pairing with the USO short is specifically tailored to harvest contango in the oil markets,
- while the pairing with the short UCO is set up to profit from the value divergence of the leveraged ETF.
Over time, UCO and USO can erode in value even as the price of oil moves higher. That same impact can happen on DBO and USL as well, but history shows us that this scenario has not been as prevalent on their values. This is still designed as a longer-term hedge, but one that could profit in an oil market that moves up, down or sideways.
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Two are exchange-traded notes from PowerShares and Deutsche Bank. The Crude Oil Short ETN (NYSE: SZO) provides 1:1 inverse coverage of its underlying index. Meanwhile, the Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSE: DTO) does just what its name implies.
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XLE : Energy SPDR - XLE
asr: this XLE seems similar to DIG/DUG and CNQ
Energy companies in this Index primarily develop and produce crude oil and natural gas, and provide drilling and other energy-related services. Leaders in the group include ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp, and ConocoPhillip
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Correlation Tracker
Correlation - Statistical measure of the degree to which the movements of two variables (stock/ETF) are related. The results range from -1.0 to +1.0.
http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/
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