4. Trends
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- Google Gigabit Fiber to home : they may do it in 2010 , then more cities in US by end of 2011
- 4 G: sprint introduced in some citites , they say by end of 2010 100 million, we can assume ATT, Verizon 4G will be working by end of 2011
- main diff: 3G vs. 4G: 4G is all digital , can have many applicaitons where voice is one application . with 3G today it is Datanet work , for voice there is separate voice 2G running so today 3G is 2 separate networks.
- india charges 50 paisa/min that is 1 cent , where as US charges 6 cents ( 6 x 500 = $30/month )
3. New markets took OLD companies down
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what will happen in the fight for Cloud application between
- Microsoft vs. Google ( apps) and
- Oracle vs. Saleforce ( business applications )
not just in 2010 , but 3 years, 5 years from now that is by 2015
is there a way to look back at last 5 years and draw some conclusions into next 5 years. I will try to attempt to do this.
how many of you agree 5 years from now that is by 2015 the above 2 category fights lead to the OLD timers ( MS, Oracle ) will lose their marketcap by 20-40% to the other Young that is Google and Salesforce.
Here is my comparision what happened last 5 years 2005-2010
a )CircuitCity went bankrupt (public company)in face of Amazon take over of online electronic good sales ( due to rapid drop in prices and easy web orders). you may argue BestBuy is still competing with Amazon. There will be one main victim in the Brick and Morter that turns out circuitcity.
b) BlockBuster allmost close to filing Bankrupy in face of NetFlix ( $10/month easy subscription and internet orders )
so if you follow CircutyCity, BlockBuster (both public companies ) bankruptcies , if you follow all company events from 2005-2010 you notice the effect of Simplicity , Internet delivery etc..
By the same token I expect Microsoft, Oracle will loose above said marketCAP once the financial market realize the onslaught of these new disruptive players. see numbers to support my above view here.
- Can the OLD guards adopt to new tactics to survive, it is hard , in any Disruptive technology will 'eliminate couple of layers or reduce the complexity of each layer'. In case of Cloud Apps they
eliminate Hardware layer, Sysadmin Layers, Bugfix/deployment Layer , software integration layers.
- The OLD guards Microsoft, ORACLE very own revenue depends on continuation of these Layers, so there is conflict of interest to remove those Layers so they do not do it ( knowing it or contently ignoring )
1. QR codes Quick response codes:
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a) QR for food: we you eat in restarent , the QR code is printed in the Bill , you scan it with Smartphone camera ( even if no internet connection , it stores and updates to a site like your Google account spreadsheet). It will have date, item Code, item name, calories ( or they can be derived)
- same thing when you visit Lucky, costco, safeway your grocery bill will have it printed , all the Manufactuer codes init as QR code , you scan with your phone
uses: 1) say you bought child car Seat, you scanned and forget it, after 10 months there was a recall on it, it will notify you automatically.
2) you bought a printer and its ink catridge is exhausted , you need to buy new catrideg you do not have to look for model etc.. , you can get it from your mobile phone which looks at google account spread sheet
3) you bought weighing machine , battery are exhausted same thing to buy batteries ..
All this needs a centralised site maintaing the Bar codes for each model of HP printer, weighingg machine and all it's required PARTS ( google can do that )
is Market Ready: Look article on gigaom.com saying Smart phones will take over by 2011 DECEMBER
GROUPON: Goolge can offer this for FREE with linking payment for google checkout ( good way to take on paypal )
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