California Real Estate

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realtytrac map site,
see Cupertino has 50 houses vs. 8000 san jose,
consider cupertino is 1/10 of san jose then still it needs 800 houses vs. 50 .
see sunnyvale is better, Fremont after sunnyvale , this shows foreclosures problem

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?txtCity=cupertino&txtCity=CA#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http://www.thenorrisgroup.com

http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/crash_overview.html

http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/crash_overview.html

Testimonials

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http://piggington.com/bruce_norris_predictions

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Bruce Reviews
http://www.realestatecoursereviews.com/review/index2.php?item_id=39
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Bubble Premier

http://piggington.com/bruce_norris_predictions
(asr: this site piggington.com seems credible, he gave lots of data on San Deigo RE: ,and he attenede Bruce meeting and endorsed so we can give credit to Bruce based on Piggington .. and piggington is still continuous live site ..)
Bruce Norris' predictions
User Forum Topic
Submitted by EconProf on December 20, 2007
Long time real estate guru Bruce Norris spoke last night in San Diego about the likely future of CA real estate. Gave a wide-ranging analysis of why we are only in the initial stages of a "perfect storm" that is hammering real estate and will create opportunities galore once the bottom is reached.
First, as to why this guy commands respect--his forecasting record is near perfect, as far as I can tell. In 1997, after 7 years of housing prices declining then stabilizing, he predicted they would double in 8 years. He was mocked for that call, but as we now know, they actually about tripled. Then he turned bearish in 2005, and in January of 2006 published a prediction that prices were wildly overblown and would fall radically. He really caught hell for that call. If others here can chime in with any other evidence of his record, then please chip in.

Anyway, here is a summary of some of his observations and predictions:
1. The bottom will be in about 2010 or 2011, with the steepest decline occurring in 2008. ( asr: meaning after 2008 still there is bottom, but peak yearly %drop is in 2008)2. 50 - 60% of sales in 2008 will be REO's.
3. Auctions will be a growing segment. Suggests investors only play that game and buy when "absolute auctions" are held.
4. Rents are falling rapidly in the most hard hit areas of Riverside. We in San Diego are helped by our fires (!), and less overbuilding.
5. Watch out for BK judges pushing "cramdowns", which I believe is when he simply tells the home lender to wipe out a portion of the principle on the loan and renegotiate it. (Correct me if I'm wrong on this interpretation).
6. Look for interest rates to get a bump up due to (5) above as investors naturally flee from lending in the future. Expect same fallout effect from current and feared future tendencies by gov't to interfere with existing loan contracts. This will prolong the decline, and rub salt in the wound of those responsible savers who have waited to buy a home. Law of unintended consequences.
7. Outmigration from CA due to our still-insane housing costs will accelerate. People will start coming back only when price/income ratios revert to the mean, about 2011. An interesting prediction is that Phoenix and Las Vegas will bounce off the bottom sooner than SoCA, since demographics favor them, i.e., many refugees from here will tend to prop up their housing markets, speeding their recovery.
8. As support for above, he cited the ratio of the cost of renting a U-haul truck from SD to other cities, versus the reverse. Biggest ratio cities:
Portland 2 1/2 to l, Salt L.C., Seattle, Dallas, Denver, all 2 to 1.
9. Another ticking time bomb I had not heard of: some HELOCs have a provision in which if the value of the house falls a certain amount, the loan converts to a fixed 15-year amortization loan AT 18 PERCENT.

All in all, a very analytical, data-driven speech, not the kind of hype-driven presentation most of these events are.

Any other attendees from this forum there? Would like to hear your input.

‹ Refinancing now: A bad move? prices down, slowly but surely ›
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I didn't attend. I was
Submitted by pbnative on December 20, 2007 - 3:40pm.
I didn't attend. I was curious about #9 so I looked at mine. It says that my line can be terminated, requiring me to pay the outstanding balance and pay certain fees, if "the value of the dwelling securing the equity account declines significantly below its appraised value for purposes of the equity account." Separate from the possible termination, the rate can go as high as 18%. I can't find anything about a conversion to fixed 18%. I don't have any money on it, but this is good to consider in case I want to use it.

I suppose that 'Declines significantly' means whatever they want it to mean. There is no specific LTV amount.

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This is now not something to
Submitted by kev374 on December 20, 2007 - 3:49pm.
This is now not something to forecast but it is quite OBVIOUS!

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BobSPBNative: Sounds like
Submitted by EconProf on December 20, 2007 - 9:46pm.
BobSPBNative: Sounds like you are vulnerable to the lender's whims.
Norris also said there is a clustering of resets scheduled to hit in 2010, after the cluster hitting in early 2008.

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2010 resets sound about
Submitted by sdrealtor on December 21, 2007 - 9:04am.
2010 resets sound about right. I have long said that 2009/2010 will be the pain for the higher end as all the 5/1 arm's reset on 04/05 purchases/refis.

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