Gold Points to $745

asr:author says in his tests when HGNSI condidence is high ( as is the case now) , the subsequent months GOLD dropped based on his tests below and Motecarle .

That at least is the conclusion that emerged after I submitted more than two decades of HGNSI data to rigorous econometric tests. The inverse correlation between HGNSI levels and the gold market's direction over the subsequent several months is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. ( Monte carle?)

Absent concrete proof of malicious manipulation by those in charge, we remain divorced from the idea and continue to find much more meaningful clues to this market
- in the almost total abstinence manifested by Indian gold buyers in the midst of their most meaningful festival season for the metal,
- in the forced liquidations among funds that made bad guesses, and
- in the realization that the immediate worry factor has the 'De" prefix affixed to the root "flation".
If one wishes to deny those factors and put a bullish face on to their justifiably angry subscribers, so be it. Looks like Mr. Hulbert might receive some irate e-mails
asr: we reasons above author thinks Down trun for Gold

As for gold, for the moment, the compass still points to $745 and $732 once again. On the last dip (one we alluded to as early as July 2008), the numbers stopped rolling at $736.00 per ounce. Close enough.