Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Recession Now: It's Deep and It's Going to Last a Long Time, Sonders Says

Contrary to popular belief, "consecutive quarters of negative GDP" is not what defines a recession. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research uses five parameters to determine whether the economy is growing or not:

* Real GDP (inflation-adjusted GDP, that is)
* Industrial Production
* Employment
* Personal Income
* Wholesale/Retail Sales

The good news is the stock market typically turns up about 60% through an economic downturn; the bad news is that it's unclear whether we've reached that point quite yet

While fairly dout about the current environment or the likelihood of a turnaround in housing anytime soon, Sonders is optimistic the U.S. economy won't suffer a "lost decade" (or more), akin to Japan's post-bubble malaise.

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