Seasonals 2 - An Oil Gult

for Commodity charts for our clients Amare.. Sridhar .. after getting subscription to Kurt Sakaeda

we can use these free charts to show our clients ..

http://www.farrdirect.com/fquotes.htm?page=chart&sym=HGK0 - downside: main home page not a good site

http://www.pfgbest.com/traders_tools/quotes.asp?page=chart&sym=CLK0 -- good but may show worldcup ( ok still they need to register to see it )

Lind site : only 1 month free trail charts

CME site : http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZWK0&title=May_2010_Wheat&type=p

does not show values , and for OIL it shows dots

news letters:

PFGbest letter: http://www.pfgbest.com/services/research/blogs/energy-report.asp

Hightower report: Lindwaldock say they have it free with accounts with them

we have Jim Ritter Bushe : seems we may ran out of subscription soon ..

check Hard Assets as shown below

- worldcup adivsotr Kurt account ( even others )

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An Oil Glut?

Written by Brad Zigler

April 13, 2010 11:41 AM EST

Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.4% http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/component/content/article/3/2087-an-oil-glut.html?Itemid=39

Going into Wednesday's U.S. Energy Department's inventory report, you'd think oil traders were anticipating a further buildup in the nation's oil supply. There's lots going on in the Oil Patch. First of all, there's that seemingly relentless increase in inventories. Commercial stocks have risen for 10 straight weeks. Supplies at the Cushing, Okla., terminus—the delivery point for the NYMEX basis grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude—are their highest since February. While we're on the subject of WTI, let's look at its North Sea counterpart, Brent crude. Brent is the benchmark for the dominant oil contract traded on the Intercontinental Exchange and is heavier and more sour than WTI, meaning it's more viscous and sulphurous. Cracking sweeter, lighter crudes into the cleaner-burning distillates is easier, so WTI typically commands a price premium over other global grades. Over the past two decades, WTI's premium over Brent has averaged $1.44 per barrel. WTI Premium/Discount Vs. Brent But not now. WTI's premium has been shrinking lately, and yesterday actually evaporated. More important, WTI fell to a discount vs. Brent. So what's that mean? In a nutshell, it's a reflection of the large amount of WTI in storage. There's also a seasonal influence working on the spread. The WTI spread—that is, its premium to Brent—tends to widen in the early summer when gasoline demand peaks, and falls during the winter/early spring to reflect crude oil movements to U.S. refineries. The premium that's developed in Brent's pricing will likely discourage the import of North Sea oil into the U.S. Bolstering the notion of a domestic supply glut is a ballooning contango. In the past month, the NYMEX three-month roll has nearly tripled, to $2.93 a barrel. If this trend continues, a carry market is likely to develop that will encourage oil traders to sell crude cargoes forward. We've seen steep cash-and-carries in the past when inventories filled available storage. Remember the winter of 2008-2009 when contangoes fattened? It was no coincidence that the WTI, at the same time, flipped to discount vs. Brent. There's only a week remaining in the life span of the nearby May NYMEX crude contract. The exodus from May into the June delivery has already begun. But there's still a substantial basis between WTI spot at Cushing and the soon-to-expire contract—30 cents a barrel at last look. That's got to go away, so either futures have to fall—the usual circumstance—or spot needs to rise. Let me ask you this: In the current environment, which do you think is more likely?